venedor0 commentsMay 10, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (10/05/2024)

The dry conditions in Russia over the past week have driven US and European wheat futures to their highest levels. The global wheat market has been on an upward trend since last week. Domestic wheat prices in Australia have seen an increase of A$10 to A$15. In SEA region, APW being quoted at U$300/MT levels; APH2 at U$355/MT levels to CNF SEA major ports. 

Australian containerized wheat exports saw a 13.6% increase in Mar,24 compared to last month, primarily to Indonesia, China, and Taiwan, while bulk wheat exports grew by 12% in Mar24 compared to last month, with China, Indonesia, and Yemen being the top importers as per ABS.

India lifted import duty on Australian desi chickpeas. It is NIL duty till 31 March 2025. This has led to a price increase for both old and new crop in Australia. Trade offers for Australian CHK1 are being heard at U$815/MT for November/December shipments to CNF India’s main ports. Some trades of CHK1 have been reported at U$790-800/MT. Price discovery still on and we note that trade volumes are low till some price floor is reached on desi chickpeas. Currently, the market demand for Australian lentils into India is sluggish, with trade offers at U$725-730/MT in containers, yet there is no firm interest from buyers.

Reports indicate that Pakistan’s domestic desi chickpea crop has not met its production target. The local market saw a significant increase in CHKM prices, jumping from U$620/MT to U$680/MT over the weekend. We hearing the CHKM quoted at U$780/MT to CFR Karachi (May/June) in containers. Meanwhile, there is a slow demand for Australian red lentils, with trade offers heard at U$725 per metric ton to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, there is a noticeable interest in the Australian CHK1 (new crop), with trade offers reported at U$780/MT for CFR Chittagong for October shipment.

Australian desi chickpeas export is up by 1% compared to the last month, with Bangladesh, UAE & Pakistan are major buyers as per ABS.

Australian lentil exports rose by 70% in Mar,24 compared to the previous month, with Bangladesh and India as major importers as per ABS.

The Chinese market remains stable for Sorghum, with a keen interest in Argentina’s sorghum, which is trading at U$250/MT for CNF China in bulk. Meanwhile, Australian sorghum is being offered at U$298-300/MT in containers, but there is limited interest due to the offers not meeting the buyers’ target price of U$290/MT.

Currently, there is weak demand for Australian GMB, with trade offers at USD 930/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers. The demand for Kaspa peas remains minimal, with trade offers heard at USD 455/MT to CFR Tianjin in containers. There is consistent demand for barley, with Australian barley competing with Russian barley; trade offers for Australian barley are at U$275/MT to CFR Tianjin.

In Nepal, there is currently minimal demand for Australian red lentils and Canola. Trade offers for CHK1 are being quoted at NIP1/HAL1 – U$775/MT levels, while Canola with a min 44% is trading at U$605/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers.

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venedor0 commentsMay 3, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (03/05/2024)

Recent issues in the Middle East and Black Sea regions have led to a firm up of the global wheat markets, propelling prices upward, while the Australian wheat market has strengthened last week. As we are hearing that APW traded at US$289/MT for CFR BMT for July shipment; APH2 being quoted at US$350/MT to CNF major SEA ports.

This week, as China is on holiday, the market demand has slowed. However, Australian red sorghum no. 1 is currently trading at U$285/MT for CFR Tianjin for July/August shipments. There is no firm interest in Australian GMB processing grade, with trade offers at U$940/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers. Similarly, there is no demand for Kaspa peas, with trade offers heard at U$440/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers. Trade offers for Australian barley stand at U$262/MT levels to CNF major China ports.

Since last two weeks demand for old crop desi chickpeas is strengthening, reflecting interest for May/June shipments from ME, Pakistan & Bangladesh. Despite domestic crop in India and Pakistan on harvest now, we are continuing to see strengthening domestic demand strength in both countries and there is expectation that demand will continue to spike towards end of 2024 due to a tight domestic balance sheet on account of lower planted area. Speculative still whether India will allow duty free imports. Trade offers for CHKM have been reported at U$685/MT for CFR Karachi, but buyer interest remains limited while they receive supplies from domestic crop harvest at an import parity basis U$595-U$600/MT. New crop Oct/Nov/Dec shipment slot Australian CHK1 remains strongly bid by traders in Australia and for CFR markets. Australian CHK1 new crop, with market offers seen at U$770/MT (Oct/Nov/Dec) & CHK1 old crop, trade offers at U$750/MT (June/July) for multiple port options.

The demand for Australian red lentils has slowed down. Additionally, trade offeror NIP1/HAL1 are being offered at U$720-U$730/MT to Indian sub-continent ports (June/July) in containers. Market experts indicate that local market prices have decreased, with Nipper at import buying interest basis of U$695/MT.

Trade activity in Nepal is stagnant due to sluggish market demand. Current trade offers for CHK1 are reported at U$810/MT for CFR Birgunj. Meanwhile, canola is indicated at U$650/MT for CFR Birgunj, yet there is no interest from buyers. 

The market demand for faba beans & lupins is weak in Egypt, with very limited business opportunities in containerized trade compared to bulk shipping, as the local crop harvest is near. Trade offers for lupins have been reported to CFR Damietta in containers at U$490/MT with limited buyer interest. Faba beans earlier bid U$505/MT CFR Damietta in containers but this week demand has waned. Very limited supplies in Australia as bulk shippers chasing limited tonnes with aggressive pricing to fill their shipping commitments in May/June.

On crop plating in Australia, WA and SA are dry sowing with both states receiving limited rain. Qld, NSW and parts of Vic have received good rainfall and expecting more this weekend which should be for seed germination and crop growth.

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venedor0 commentsApril 26, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (26/04/2024)

Global wheat production forecast for 2024/25 has been reduced by 1 MMT to 798 MMT, despite a 9 MMT increase from 2023/24. The IGC has increased its forecast for Australian wheat exports in 2024/25 by 500KT due to reduced availability of low-cost wheat from the Black Sea region. APW quoted mid $270 main SE Asia ports in containers.

Global canola/rapeseed production for 2024/25 is expected to be 87.8 MMT, the lowest since 2021/22, while Australia’s projected yield is expected to rise by 400KT than last season as per IGC. We are hearing Australian GM canola trade offers quoted at U$620/MT levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

Global barley production, which hit a 5 year low in 2023/24, is anticipated to increase to 151.2 MMT in 2024/25. Concurrently, Australian barley production is expected to reach 11.6 MMT, while Australian barley exports are projected to increase to 8.2MMT in 2024/25, up from 7.9MMT in the previous season as per IGC & thanks to China’s stable demand for barley. As we are hearing Australia barley trade offers quoted at U$260/MT levels to CNF China main ports in containers. 

In China, the demand for sorghum remains stable to low, with trade offers reported at U$285/MT levels to CFR Tianjin in containers for July/August shipments. Buyer interest in Australian GMB is limited, trade offers quoted at U$930/MT (processing grade) less U$60 for manufacturing grade levels to CFR Qingdao in containers. Kaspa peas – last trade reported at U$415/MT levels to CFR Tianjin in containers for June/July shipments.

This week, we are observing demand for old crop of desi chickpeas has strengthened for May/June shipment in Pakistan & Nepal.  Following the Eid holidays, demand for Australian desi chickpeas M grade and old crop 22/23 has surged while that for red lentils has slowed in Pakistan. Delays in the harvest due to rain have led to an increase in the price of CHKM to U$606/MT in domestic market. Trade offers have been quoted for NIP/HAL1 at U$725/MT; CHKM (old crop) at U$675/MT for CFR Karachi in containers. In Nepal, trade reported for NIP1/HAL1 at U$750/MT to CFR Birgunj, while offers for CHKM (old crop) at U$670/MT; CHK1(old crop) at U$710/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers.

The domestic desi chickpea market in India is tightening, we are observing effect to Australian desi chickpeas forward trade offers quoted at U$740/MT levels to multiple port options for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments. The slow domestic arrival of lentils is creating a demand for Australian red lentils, with trade offers heard at U$720/MT levels in containers. Hearing that trade reported for faba beans at U$470/MT to CFR Kolkata levels in containers.

Following the Eid holiday, there is good demand for faba beans and no demand on lupins. Faba beans availability is low amid limited grower selling in Victoria and South Australia with high price bids from bulk buyers for 3 vessels scheduled for May-June period. Container Price indications are as follows: Lupins – U$515/MT; Faba beans – U$505/MT levels to CFR Damietta in containers.

Western Australia continues to remain dry with limited 5-10mm rain forecast for next 8 days. Canola is being planted dry and growers hoping for a break to proceed with cereals planting.

East Coast Australia has fared better with planting in progress across states of SA, VIC, NSW & QLD. Sowing is progressing smoothly with canola planting completing in next 5-10 days and pulses and cereals being sowed after. Some areas in SA need more rain for planting whilst QLD needs more dry days to complete planting. More on planting numbers in the coming few weeks.

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venedor0 commentsApril 12, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (12/04/2024)

Australian wheat market sees small price increases at grower level earlier this week but wheat is globally still in bearish trend with large ending stocks as per latest WASDE report. Export demand remains low in SEA regions, with APW containers quoted at low U$280/mt – traded U$273/mt Thailand port; APH2 at U$345/mt to CNF SEA major ports with lack of interest from buyers. China continues to cancel US & Australia wheat bulk shipments as they may be looking at other cheaper origins and their own upcoming harvest for lower priced purchases.

The global oilseed markets, purely driven by middle-east security macros have led crude oil and palm oil price surges. Australian canola prices in turn have also been receiving support last week. With rapeseed harvest from Ukraine, May onwards we may see some global downward pressure in physical markets. Canola container business pricing presently unworkable to Nepal at U$620/mt levels.

In India, with the limited arrival of domestic lentils in the local mandi’s and perceived tight pulses crops balance sheet, there has been some activity in the Australian red lentils market. Trades have been reported at US$720/MT levels for CFR Kolkata in containers for June/July shipment in containers. Australia domestic pricing has surged A$40-A$50 pmt in last 10 days. No demand for faba beans in India, as we heard trade offers at U$490-495/mt to CFR Kolkata with no interest from buyers.

Demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas in Pakistan is sluggish, which is also influenced by the ongoing Eid holiday’s. Reportedly, there is limited buyer interest in the trade offer for NIP1/HAL1 at US$715/mt to CFR Karachi this week.

Australian Lentil export shipments surged by 61% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; India and Pakistan were the leading buyers, as per ABS.

The Australian chickpea market has traded sideways in both new and old crops this week. There has been limited buying activity from countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates. New crop 24/25 (Oct-Dec) crop containers trading with multi-port options around U$720/mt CFR sub-continent/ME ports. There has been very limited grower participation in forward selling of new crop chickpeas just yet but we expect this kind of pricing will be strong motivation for growers to increase acreage planted to chickpeas – we will know more in June once crops are planted.

Chickpea export shipments increased by 44% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; Pakistan and the UAE were the major importers, as per ABS.

Trade activity in Nepal has been observed, with Australian red lentils trading at US$755/mt levels for CFR Birgunj in containers.

In China, the demand for sorghum is currently stable to low for May/June/July shipments, with trade offers heard at U$302/mt CFR Tianjin in containers this week. Rains at harvest in Queensland have been a bit of dampener for Sorghum trade. Sorghum exports dropped by 51% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; China and Japan remained significant markets, as per ABS.

As we learned on GMB demand that due to the availability of GMB from other origins at lower prices, interest in Australian GMB has diminished; the quoted price for Australian GMB at US$940/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers.

Australian barley trade offers at U$270/mt to CNF China major ports with lack on interest. Barley exports, including feed barley, decreased by 38% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month, while malt barley exports fell by 63% during the same period; China continued as the primary buyer for both malt and feed barley, as per ABS.

Since last 2-3 weeks no significant demand is coming for faba beans & lupins from Egypt as Eid holiday’s going on. Australian faba beans are now on a tight balance sheet with limited availability of good quality beans in Victoria and South Australia. Prices have steadily increased, we can expect some more beans for export container business to only show in July post FY close for growers.

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venedor0 commentsApril 5, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/04/2024)

Australian wheat market has remained relatively unchanged over the past month, slight uptick in domestic bids of A$2-A$4 pmt last week – largely reflective of AUD/USD movements and demand and supply tightness for APW or higher grades whilst demand for ASW type is lower. Global wheat markets have been largely flat with no significant supply concerns and a large northern hemisphere crop expected.

Australian wheat exporters finding it difficult to secure new export business & also facing stiff competition from black sea wheat. We are hearing freight costs to SEA ex CIS going up which may open up some markets for Australian product. As we heard that APW is quoted at U$275/mt and APH2 at U$330/mt to CNF major SEA ports & also getting enquiries for feed wheat from China, buying idea at U$245/mt levels to CNF China ports.

The sorghum crop in Southern QLD has come under the weather with harvest stopping and some expected quality downgrades in SE QLD due to wet harvest. Later crops in Central QLD and Northern NSW should be ok. Quiet week on Sorghum as growers have stopped further selling and bids from shorts at slight uptick of A$2 to A$4 pmt upcountry.

In China, there’s continuing demand of Australian red sorghum forward shipments, particularly for July/August shipments, while interest in May/June or June/July shipments is lackluster due to slower consumption in Chinese markets. Bid levels CFR China ports around U$285 for Jul/Aug.

Green Mung beans are quoted at U$930/mt levels to CFR Qingdao, but there’s currently sideline interest from buyers. They are wanting to see quality of harvest currently underway. Some SE QLD mungbeans crop have quality issues now post 4 days of heavy rains in the region.

The Kaspa peas demand in China is slow with reports of small quantities trading at around U$415/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers. Australian barley is also being traded in China, with offers at U$265/mt to CNF China major ports for containers.

Australia’s local desi chickpea market is relatively quiet, with demand from key countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, UAE, and Nepal is sluggish, possibly picking up post-Eid according to market experts. Limited stocks and limited grower/trader selling have kept Australian chickpeas at flat price levels, no urgency to sell.

In Bangladesh, as Eid approaches, demand for Australian red lentils, CHK1, and Canola has slowed. As we heard that trades reported for Canola at U$540/mt levels and NIP/HAL1 at U$695/mt to CFR Chattogram.

Nepal’s market has been sluggish over the past 5-6 months, with Australian red lentils trading at $725/mt to CFR Birgunj; Canola has been priced out with container buyers pursuing market rally in last 1 month. Australian canola prices have been very strong on back of significant demand in bulk export markets on account of being still discounted to Canadian canola seed. Expect market offers around U$625-U$630/mt CFR Brigunj in containers.

Egypt’s market shows no major demand on containers business. Hearing trade offers for Faba beans at U$485/mt and Lupins at U$505/mt to CFR Damietta with no buying interest. Container transit at 95 days plus due to Red sea issues. Due to Red Sea issues most faba demand shifted to bulk vessels which have now priced out container business with bulk buyer Portland bids in Victoria at about A$600 port.

Pakistan experiences slow demand as Eid approaches, with Australian red lentils trade offers at U$690/mt to CFR Karachi. No demand in desi chickpeas.

In India, as the domestic harvest of chana and lentils is expected within two weeks, the demand for Australian red lentils remains low. Only a few trades have been reported for NIP/HAL1 at U$690/mt CFR Kolkata for shipments scheduled in May/June/July shipments. IMD warns extreme heat Apr-June period though rabi harvest may not be significantly impacted as crops have matured. Monsoonal impact yet unknown, though any anomalies may impact kharif crop. Food inflation still a worry for India due to low carrying stock on various grains and pulses and summer weather impact on other food categories in horticulture and fodder crops.

East coast of Australia has received some good March/April rains which will provide better moisture to plant the winter crop, though Western Australia has been dry which is a concern to winter crop prospects. We will know more on winter crop planting in a months time. Growers now gearing up to start planting winter crop in the East Coast from end April onwards.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 22, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (22/03/2024)

The global wheat markets seem to be stabilizing, this week, CBOT wheat futures saw an additional 2% increase due to Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. While the Australian dollar has experienced some depreciation & majorities of Australian exporters are observing from sideline as Russian & Ukraine wheat is dominating SEA markets. As we learned APW quoted at U$285/mt & APH2 at U$350/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports. ASW1 demand for China in containers at U$260/mt CNF major China port.

The estimated global wheat production for the 2023/24 season has been increased by 1.5MMT to 789.5 MMT, reflecting higher projections for Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan. The IGC’s initial forecast for the 2024/25 season anticipates a rise in wheat production to 798.8MMT and an increase in carryover stocks by 2.5MMT

Demand for Australia’s sorghum is strong in China, trading at U$286/mt to CNF Tianjin in containers for May/June/July. There was some small bulk vessel Sorghum demand from China earlier this week which seems to be the first we have seen in quite a few weeks and as harvest picks up post Easter, we expect there will be a few boats traded. For now, Sorghum continues to see container demand in China at U$280 – U$290/mt levels CNF major China ports. This week, interest in Australian GMB has slowed due to a lack of demand and on account of collapsing prices for Myanmar origin mungs, prices were quoted at U$920/mt to CNF Qingdao with limited buying interest. Additionally, a limited quantity of Kaspa pea cargoes were traded to CNF Tianjin at U$415/mt in containers this week. We are also hearing trade offers for Australian barley at U$250-255/mt to CNF China major ports in containers.

The Pakistani market has experienced a slowdown in the past two weeks for Australian lentils and Desi chickpeas due to Ramadan. We are hearing a few trades NIP1/HAL1 at U$685/mt for CFR Karachi for May/June or June/July shipment.

With the domestic crop harvest in progress, the market demand for Australian red lentils in India is currently slow. As we are hearing trade offers of NIP1/HAL1 at U$695-700/mt levels to CNF Kolkata. minimal trade demand for Faba beans, hearing trade offers at U$465/mt to CNF Kolkata.

There has been no significant movement in the markets for Desi chickpeas, Canola, or Australian lentils in Nepal. Some trades reported of GM Canola at U$575/mt levels; NIP1/HAL1 at U$720/mt; & CHK1 at U$705/mt to CFR Birgunj.

Egypt demand has slowed down a bit for Faba beans, lupins & lentils as their struggle continues against FX. Indications CNF Damietta seen – Faba U$510/mt.

Australia local containers markets – We have seen small trades of chickpeas, most likely coverings on earlier trades into UAE and Bangladesh – nothing of significant volumes: DCT quotes Bris/Syd CHK1 22/23 – A$880/mt; 23/24 – A$980/mt; CHK1 24/25 (Nov/Dec) – A$970/mt; Lentils (NIP/HAL) – DCT quotes Mel: A$960/mt; Kabuli quotes Mel: A$1150/mt – very limited demand.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 15, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (15/03/2024)

This week, the global wheat market experienced notable developments. China’s cancellation of 504,000 Tonnes of US wheat and the postponement of Australian wheat shipments could be attributed to a market slowdown. The absence of trades in Australian wheat, due to competitive pricing from other sources, has led to a subdued market atmosphere in the SEA region. Price quotations for forward shipments indicate APW1 at U$270/mt and APH at U$335/mt for key CNF SEA ports in containers.

Since China return from vacation, we have observed a robust demand for Australian red sorghum in China. Currently trading at U$295/mt levels for CFR Tianjin in containers, we are also getting advance inquiries for sailing shipment in June/July, and July/August. Australian GMB is being quoted at U$940/mt levels for CFR Qingdao in containers, as we have learned from the market, and there is a demand for forward cargoes for May/June shipments. Over the past two weeks, Chinese bids for Australian Kaspa peas have climbed to U$420/mt levels for CFR Tianjin in containers.

In light of Ramadan, the market demand in Pakistan for Australian red lentils and Desi chickpeas has seen a decline over the past two weeks. The last reported transaction for NIP1/HAL1 was a container trade to CFR Karachi at a price of US$700/mt.

The market demand for Australian red lentils in India has seen a decline over the past fortnight, attributed to the ongoing harvest. Currently, buyers are showing a lack of interest. There have been couple of forward cargoes trades reported for NIP1/HAL1 at US$690/mt for July shipments.

Last week we are noticing certain forward deals reported of Australian desi chickpeas new crop (24/25) was traded at US$695/mt , with multiple port options (Mundra/Jebel Ali) Oct/Nov shipments.

In Nepal, there has been no major developement in trade activity in Australian red lentils, Desi chickpeas, and canola seeds.

In the current market scenario, Nepal’s trade activities involving Australian red lentils, Desi chickpeas, and canola seeds remain stagnant. Hearing from market sources that few trades reported of NIP1/HAL1 at U$720/mt; Canola bids at U$575/mt to CFR Birgunj.

Egypt continues to struggle against foreign currency. Owing to the diminished demand for Faba beans, trades reported last week at US$465/mt to CFR Damietta.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 8, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/03/2024)

As per recent report of ABARES, 23/24 crop production for wheat at 25.96 MMT (2% below 10 yr average), barley at 10.8 MMT (4% below 10 yr average), and canola at 5.68 MMT which is still higher production than long term average crops.

Australian wheat market has remained flat with little demand and growers choosing to hold back on sales. Australian wheat is still not competitive against other wheat origins into SE Asia. No significant demand into China as well. Russian and Ukraine continue to ship out their wheat at 10-15% higher pace than same time last year and at a significantly cheaper price than Australian and US wheat.

In SEA region, we are getting inquiries for Australian wheat forward shipments. This week we heard trade offers quoted for APW1 to U$270/mt levels & APH2 to U$332/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports in containers. Bit of an uptick in shipments of wheat in containers ex Australia as per latest stats – is increased by approx. 25% from Dec,23; as Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand are main buyers. Exports of bulk in vessel is increased by 104% from Dec’23; as China & Indonesia remained top buyer as per ABS.

Australian red sorghum is in demand this week in China, trading at U$290+/-/mt to CNF China main ports. Also, Australian green mung beans are also gaining some interest, with quotes between U$945-950/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers May shipments. Interest in Kaspa peas seen earlier this week at USD 415/mt main China ports.

India’s demand for Australian red lentils is slow due to domestic rabi crop harvesting on cards, as we heard from the market sources that with few forward cargo trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$700/mt for June shipments in containers. There was a slight uptick in forward demand earlier this week which was mainly driven by lower mandi arrivals in India coupled with some fear of increased government purchases which may decrease stock availability. However, with an exportable surplus of 800,000 MT+ from Australia and significant stock at government warehouses, any surges should be limited.

Australian desi chickpeas & lentils are experiencing a bearish market in Pakistan due to the Ramadan festival and local crop harvesting on the cards, as heard from the market source that lentils vessel of 22K is arrived at port & also desi chickpeas vessel of 16K enroute to Pakistan, as result local market is down at the moment. This week heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$695/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers. Desi chickpeas – no demand forthcoming with seller quotes ranging $640 CHKM to $690 CHK1 (23/24)

Interest in Australian KASPA PEAS and CHK1 has been observed in Bangladesh, with trade offers quoted at U$460/mt levels & U$685/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. Limited sales though with LC opening issues still ongoing.

No movement / demand in Nepal for Australian lentils, desi chickpeas & GM canola seeds in CFR Birgunj.

Egyptian pound devalued almost 50% this week, from 31 pounds to the dollar to 50 pounds/dollar, stabilised at 49.5. USD inflows expected to increase which may assist USD availability. No demand for faba or lentils from Egypt this week.

The Australian dollar experienced 1% jump this week, now trading 0.6632.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 1, 2024Uncategorized

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (01/03/2024)

Demand for Australian wheat is significantly reduced due to cheaper offers from CIS origins into the SE Asia region. Futures continue to be trending lower everyday due to very competitive offers from Black Sea origins and an anticipated heavy northern hemisphere grain supply. However, since last week we have seen increased market demand from SE Asia flour mills – market participants figure the market now at or about to be at bottom. Forward purchasing intentions upto Jul/Aug shipment periods have been seen. APW1 yesterday quoted at sub U$275/mt – $280/mt levels; APH2 at U$335/mt levels to CFR SEA major ports.

Australia red sorghum is experiencing stable demand in China, with SOR1 trading between U$287-290/mt to major ports. Australian Sorghum crop looks to be larger than anticipated given good in crop rain, crops maturing well and sound quality. At this stage we expect Sorghum crop to be north of 2 mmt given the large planting in Central Queensland. ABARE report next week which will reflect crop forecasts.

Mung beans also seems to be growing well given ideal conditions of soil moisture and are quoted at U$975-980/mt to CFR Qingdao for April/May shipments.

Bit of demand now flowing into Kaspa/Dun peas from China and Bangladesh as a result of India extending duty free period for YP. Some business been done into China par/sub U$410 levels CFR China major ports and U$440 +/- into Chittagong.

Australian barley containerized business & bulk in vessel are trading at U$250-255/mt levels to CNF China major ports. It has remained sideways these values now for past 2 months. Barley is in good availability in Australia due to lack of domestic and export markets but China demand is lower/flat.

Pakistan’s market is experiencing slow demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas as buyers have completed Ramadan purchases and awaiting shipments arrival. Recent trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers with small continuing demand. A bulk vessel also reported enroute which may impose price pressure on local market. Desi chickpeas demand from Pakistan remains quiet.

Indian domestic rabi crop harvesting is accelerating, leading to a slow demand for Australian red lentils, with forward cargo trading at U$685/mt levels to CFR Kolkata in containers as per market sources.

In Nepal, there is no significant trading activity for Australian lentils, Desi chickpeas, and Canola. We heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Some small quantities of Canola seed have traded $570+ levels CFR Birgunj for Mar/Apr period.

In Egypt, market demand slow for Faba beans, as we heard trade offer at U$480/mt levels to CFR Damietta in containers. Longer transit from Australia(90+ days) as container vessels transit via Cape to Europe and reroute back to Damietta and USD availability in Egypt have hit recent demand as northern hemisphere faba supplies will kick in May/Jun onwards. A couple of bulk faba vessels yet to load ex Australia for which domestic Victoria accumulations bids are strong and thus keep containers from being offered at competitive values.

AUD/USD at the 0.65 mark is helping forward export business commitments, however we are witnessing slow demand from destinations across all commodities.

Australian east coast sub-soil moisture is good at this stage and Western Australia has also seen recent rain events – this has lifted grower planting intentions for the winter crop. Mar/Apr planting rains will be crucial to deliver a good crop planting. ABARE forecasts awaited next week 05Mar24.

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venedor0 commentsFebruary 23, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (23/02/2024)

Global wheat market still dominated by Black Sea wheat. Australian wheat is having difficulty because of the sluggish demand in the SEA region; this week, APW1 and APH2 were quoted at U$280/mt levels and U$340/mt levels to CNF major SEA ports in containers.

China is returning from vacation & we are seeing demand for Australian red sorghum, as heard this week trading at U$290/mt levels at CFR Tianjin. We have learned that Australian Mung beans were quoted at U$980/mt levels to CFR Qingdao. This week bids for Australian Kaspa peas are improving to U $400/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Australia’s red lentils are currently in slow demand in India; we learned last week that NIP1/HAL1 is trading in containers for CFR Kolkata at U$690–695/mt levels in containers. As reported last week, there is not much demand for faba beans, as heard Faba beans traded at U$445/mt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Yesterday, India extended yellow peas import time till 30th April 2024, Also heard from the market source that small quantity of Australian desi chickpeas traded at U$685/mt to CFR Mundra & multiple port options in containers this week.

In Pakistan, we are observing sluggish demand for Australian red lentils & we hearing Australian red lentils trading at U$700/mt levels.

In Nepal, no significant demand for Australian red lentils, chickpeas & GM canola. As we heard GM canola trade offers at U$575/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

We are seeing minimal demand in Egypt for Faba beans & as we are hearing trade offers at U$495/mt to CFR Damietta in containers.

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds

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