Demand for Australian wheat is significantly reduced due to cheaper offers from CIS origins into the SE Asia region. Futures continue to be trending lower everyday due to very competitive offers from Black Sea origins and an anticipated heavy northern hemisphere grain supply. However, since last week we have seen increased market demand from SE Asia flour mills – market participants figure the market now at or about to be at bottom. Forward purchasing intentions upto Jul/Aug shipment periods have been seen. APW1 yesterday quoted at sub U$275/mt – $280/mt levels; APH2 at U$335/mt levels to CFR SEA major ports.
Australia red sorghum is experiencing stable demand in China, with SOR1 trading between U$287-290/mt to major ports. Australian Sorghum crop looks to be larger than anticipated given good in crop rain, crops maturing well and sound quality. At this stage we expect Sorghum crop to be north of 2 mmt given the large planting in Central Queensland. ABARE report next week which will reflect crop forecasts.
Mung beans also seems to be growing well given ideal conditions of soil moisture and are quoted at U$975-980/mt to CFR Qingdao for April/May shipments.
Bit of demand now flowing into Kaspa/Dun peas from China and Bangladesh as a result of India extending duty free period for YP. Some business been done into China par/sub U$410 levels CFR China major ports and U$440 +/- into Chittagong.
Australian barley containerized business & bulk in vessel are trading at U$250-255/mt levels to CNF China major ports. It has remained sideways these values now for past 2 months. Barley is in good availability in Australia due to lack of domestic and export markets but China demand is lower/flat.
Pakistan’s market is experiencing slow demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas as buyers have completed Ramadan purchases and awaiting shipments arrival. Recent trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers with small continuing demand. A bulk vessel also reported enroute which may impose price pressure on local market. Desi chickpeas demand from Pakistan remains quiet.
Indian domestic rabi crop harvesting is accelerating, leading to a slow demand for Australian red lentils, with forward cargo trading at U$685/mt levels to CFR Kolkata in containers as per market sources.
In Nepal, there is no significant trading activity for Australian lentils, Desi chickpeas, and Canola. We heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Some small quantities of Canola seed have traded $570+ levels CFR Birgunj for Mar/Apr period.
In Egypt, market demand slow for Faba beans, as we heard trade offer at U$480/mt levels to CFR Damietta in containers. Longer transit from Australia(90+ days) as container vessels transit via Cape to Europe and reroute back to Damietta and USD availability in Egypt have hit recent demand as northern hemisphere faba supplies will kick in May/Jun onwards. A couple of bulk faba vessels yet to load ex Australia for which domestic Victoria accumulations bids are strong and thus keep containers from being offered at competitive values.
AUD/USD at the 0.65 mark is helping forward export business commitments, however we are witnessing slow demand from destinations across all commodities.
Australian east coast sub-soil moisture is good at this stage and Western Australia has also seen recent rain events – this has lifted grower planting intentions for the winter crop. Mar/Apr planting rains will be crucial to deliver a good crop planting. ABARE forecasts awaited next week 05Mar24.
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