venedor0 commentsApril 12, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (12/04/2024)

Australian wheat market sees small price increases at grower level earlier this week but wheat is globally still in bearish trend with large ending stocks as per latest WASDE report. Export demand remains low in SEA regions, with APW containers quoted at low U$280/mt – traded U$273/mt Thailand port; APH2 at U$345/mt to CNF SEA major ports with lack of interest from buyers. China continues to cancel US & Australia wheat bulk shipments as they may be looking at other cheaper origins and their own upcoming harvest for lower priced purchases.

The global oilseed markets, purely driven by middle-east security macros have led crude oil and palm oil price surges. Australian canola prices in turn have also been receiving support last week. With rapeseed harvest from Ukraine, May onwards we may see some global downward pressure in physical markets. Canola container business pricing presently unworkable to Nepal at U$620/mt levels.

In India, with the limited arrival of domestic lentils in the local mandi’s and perceived tight pulses crops balance sheet, there has been some activity in the Australian red lentils market. Trades have been reported at US$720/MT levels for CFR Kolkata in containers for June/July shipment in containers. Australia domestic pricing has surged A$40-A$50 pmt in last 10 days. No demand for faba beans in India, as we heard trade offers at U$490-495/mt to CFR Kolkata with no interest from buyers.

Demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas in Pakistan is sluggish, which is also influenced by the ongoing Eid holiday’s. Reportedly, there is limited buyer interest in the trade offer for NIP1/HAL1 at US$715/mt to CFR Karachi this week.

Australian Lentil export shipments surged by 61% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; India and Pakistan were the leading buyers, as per ABS.

The Australian chickpea market has traded sideways in both new and old crops this week. There has been limited buying activity from countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates. New crop 24/25 (Oct-Dec) crop containers trading with multi-port options around U$720/mt CFR sub-continent/ME ports. There has been very limited grower participation in forward selling of new crop chickpeas just yet but we expect this kind of pricing will be strong motivation for growers to increase acreage planted to chickpeas – we will know more in June once crops are planted.

Chickpea export shipments increased by 44% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; Pakistan and the UAE were the major importers, as per ABS.

Trade activity in Nepal has been observed, with Australian red lentils trading at US$755/mt levels for CFR Birgunj in containers.

In China, the demand for sorghum is currently stable to low for May/June/July shipments, with trade offers heard at U$302/mt CFR Tianjin in containers this week. Rains at harvest in Queensland have been a bit of dampener for Sorghum trade. Sorghum exports dropped by 51% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; China and Japan remained significant markets, as per ABS.

As we learned on GMB demand that due to the availability of GMB from other origins at lower prices, interest in Australian GMB has diminished; the quoted price for Australian GMB at US$940/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers.

Australian barley trade offers at U$270/mt to CNF China major ports with lack on interest. Barley exports, including feed barley, decreased by 38% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month, while malt barley exports fell by 63% during the same period; China continued as the primary buyer for both malt and feed barley, as per ABS.

Since last 2-3 weeks no significant demand is coming for faba beans & lupins from Egypt as Eid holiday’s going on. Australian faba beans are now on a tight balance sheet with limited availability of good quality beans in Victoria and South Australia. Prices have steadily increased, we can expect some more beans for export container business to only show in July post FY close for growers.

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venedor0 commentsApril 5, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/04/2024)

Australian wheat market has remained relatively unchanged over the past month, slight uptick in domestic bids of A$2-A$4 pmt last week – largely reflective of AUD/USD movements and demand and supply tightness for APW or higher grades whilst demand for ASW type is lower. Global wheat markets have been largely flat with no significant supply concerns and a large northern hemisphere crop expected.

Australian wheat exporters finding it difficult to secure new export business & also facing stiff competition from black sea wheat. We are hearing freight costs to SEA ex CIS going up which may open up some markets for Australian product. As we heard that APW is quoted at U$275/mt and APH2 at U$330/mt to CNF major SEA ports & also getting enquiries for feed wheat from China, buying idea at U$245/mt levels to CNF China ports.

The sorghum crop in Southern QLD has come under the weather with harvest stopping and some expected quality downgrades in SE QLD due to wet harvest. Later crops in Central QLD and Northern NSW should be ok. Quiet week on Sorghum as growers have stopped further selling and bids from shorts at slight uptick of A$2 to A$4 pmt upcountry.

In China, there’s continuing demand of Australian red sorghum forward shipments, particularly for July/August shipments, while interest in May/June or June/July shipments is lackluster due to slower consumption in Chinese markets. Bid levels CFR China ports around U$285 for Jul/Aug.

Green Mung beans are quoted at U$930/mt levels to CFR Qingdao, but there’s currently sideline interest from buyers. They are wanting to see quality of harvest currently underway. Some SE QLD mungbeans crop have quality issues now post 4 days of heavy rains in the region.

The Kaspa peas demand in China is slow with reports of small quantities trading at around U$415/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers. Australian barley is also being traded in China, with offers at U$265/mt to CNF China major ports for containers.

Australia’s local desi chickpea market is relatively quiet, with demand from key countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, UAE, and Nepal is sluggish, possibly picking up post-Eid according to market experts. Limited stocks and limited grower/trader selling have kept Australian chickpeas at flat price levels, no urgency to sell.

In Bangladesh, as Eid approaches, demand for Australian red lentils, CHK1, and Canola has slowed. As we heard that trades reported for Canola at U$540/mt levels and NIP/HAL1 at U$695/mt to CFR Chattogram.

Nepal’s market has been sluggish over the past 5-6 months, with Australian red lentils trading at $725/mt to CFR Birgunj; Canola has been priced out with container buyers pursuing market rally in last 1 month. Australian canola prices have been very strong on back of significant demand in bulk export markets on account of being still discounted to Canadian canola seed. Expect market offers around U$625-U$630/mt CFR Brigunj in containers.

Egypt’s market shows no major demand on containers business. Hearing trade offers for Faba beans at U$485/mt and Lupins at U$505/mt to CFR Damietta with no buying interest. Container transit at 95 days plus due to Red sea issues. Due to Red Sea issues most faba demand shifted to bulk vessels which have now priced out container business with bulk buyer Portland bids in Victoria at about A$600 port.

Pakistan experiences slow demand as Eid approaches, with Australian red lentils trade offers at U$690/mt to CFR Karachi. No demand in desi chickpeas.

In India, as the domestic harvest of chana and lentils is expected within two weeks, the demand for Australian red lentils remains low. Only a few trades have been reported for NIP/HAL1 at U$690/mt CFR Kolkata for shipments scheduled in May/June/July shipments. IMD warns extreme heat Apr-June period though rabi harvest may not be significantly impacted as crops have matured. Monsoonal impact yet unknown, though any anomalies may impact kharif crop. Food inflation still a worry for India due to low carrying stock on various grains and pulses and summer weather impact on other food categories in horticulture and fodder crops.

East coast of Australia has received some good March/April rains which will provide better moisture to plant the winter crop, though Western Australia has been dry which is a concern to winter crop prospects. We will know more on winter crop planting in a months time. Growers now gearing up to start planting winter crop in the East Coast from end April onwards.

Disclaimer : Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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venedor0 commentsMarch 22, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (22/03/2024)

The global wheat markets seem to be stabilizing, this week, CBOT wheat futures saw an additional 2% increase due to Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. While the Australian dollar has experienced some depreciation & majorities of Australian exporters are observing from sideline as Russian & Ukraine wheat is dominating SEA markets. As we learned APW quoted at U$285/mt & APH2 at U$350/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports. ASW1 demand for China in containers at U$260/mt CNF major China port.

The estimated global wheat production for the 2023/24 season has been increased by 1.5MMT to 789.5 MMT, reflecting higher projections for Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan. The IGC’s initial forecast for the 2024/25 season anticipates a rise in wheat production to 798.8MMT and an increase in carryover stocks by 2.5MMT

Demand for Australia’s sorghum is strong in China, trading at U$286/mt to CNF Tianjin in containers for May/June/July. There was some small bulk vessel Sorghum demand from China earlier this week which seems to be the first we have seen in quite a few weeks and as harvest picks up post Easter, we expect there will be a few boats traded. For now, Sorghum continues to see container demand in China at U$280 – U$290/mt levels CNF major China ports. This week, interest in Australian GMB has slowed due to a lack of demand and on account of collapsing prices for Myanmar origin mungs, prices were quoted at U$920/mt to CNF Qingdao with limited buying interest. Additionally, a limited quantity of Kaspa pea cargoes were traded to CNF Tianjin at U$415/mt in containers this week. We are also hearing trade offers for Australian barley at U$250-255/mt to CNF China major ports in containers.

The Pakistani market has experienced a slowdown in the past two weeks for Australian lentils and Desi chickpeas due to Ramadan. We are hearing a few trades NIP1/HAL1 at U$685/mt for CFR Karachi for May/June or June/July shipment.

With the domestic crop harvest in progress, the market demand for Australian red lentils in India is currently slow. As we are hearing trade offers of NIP1/HAL1 at U$695-700/mt levels to CNF Kolkata. minimal trade demand for Faba beans, hearing trade offers at U$465/mt to CNF Kolkata.

There has been no significant movement in the markets for Desi chickpeas, Canola, or Australian lentils in Nepal. Some trades reported of GM Canola at U$575/mt levels; NIP1/HAL1 at U$720/mt; & CHK1 at U$705/mt to CFR Birgunj.

Egypt demand has slowed down a bit for Faba beans, lupins & lentils as their struggle continues against FX. Indications CNF Damietta seen – Faba U$510/mt.

Australia local containers markets – We have seen small trades of chickpeas, most likely coverings on earlier trades into UAE and Bangladesh – nothing of significant volumes: DCT quotes Bris/Syd CHK1 22/23 – A$880/mt; 23/24 – A$980/mt; CHK1 24/25 (Nov/Dec) – A$970/mt; Lentils (NIP/HAL) – DCT quotes Mel: A$960/mt; Kabuli quotes Mel: A$1150/mt – very limited demand.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 15, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (15/03/2024)

This week, the global wheat market experienced notable developments. China’s cancellation of 504,000 Tonnes of US wheat and the postponement of Australian wheat shipments could be attributed to a market slowdown. The absence of trades in Australian wheat, due to competitive pricing from other sources, has led to a subdued market atmosphere in the SEA region. Price quotations for forward shipments indicate APW1 at U$270/mt and APH at U$335/mt for key CNF SEA ports in containers.

Since China return from vacation, we have observed a robust demand for Australian red sorghum in China. Currently trading at U$295/mt levels for CFR Tianjin in containers, we are also getting advance inquiries for sailing shipment in June/July, and July/August. Australian GMB is being quoted at U$940/mt levels for CFR Qingdao in containers, as we have learned from the market, and there is a demand for forward cargoes for May/June shipments. Over the past two weeks, Chinese bids for Australian Kaspa peas have climbed to U$420/mt levels for CFR Tianjin in containers.

In light of Ramadan, the market demand in Pakistan for Australian red lentils and Desi chickpeas has seen a decline over the past two weeks. The last reported transaction for NIP1/HAL1 was a container trade to CFR Karachi at a price of US$700/mt.

The market demand for Australian red lentils in India has seen a decline over the past fortnight, attributed to the ongoing harvest. Currently, buyers are showing a lack of interest. There have been couple of forward cargoes trades reported for NIP1/HAL1 at US$690/mt for July shipments.

Last week we are noticing certain forward deals reported of Australian desi chickpeas new crop (24/25) was traded at US$695/mt , with multiple port options (Mundra/Jebel Ali) Oct/Nov shipments.

In Nepal, there has been no major developement in trade activity in Australian red lentils, Desi chickpeas, and canola seeds.

In the current market scenario, Nepal’s trade activities involving Australian red lentils, Desi chickpeas, and canola seeds remain stagnant. Hearing from market sources that few trades reported of NIP1/HAL1 at U$720/mt; Canola bids at U$575/mt to CFR Birgunj.

Egypt continues to struggle against foreign currency. Owing to the diminished demand for Faba beans, trades reported last week at US$465/mt to CFR Damietta.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 8, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/03/2024)

As per recent report of ABARES, 23/24 crop production for wheat at 25.96 MMT (2% below 10 yr average), barley at 10.8 MMT (4% below 10 yr average), and canola at 5.68 MMT which is still higher production than long term average crops.

Australian wheat market has remained flat with little demand and growers choosing to hold back on sales. Australian wheat is still not competitive against other wheat origins into SE Asia. No significant demand into China as well. Russian and Ukraine continue to ship out their wheat at 10-15% higher pace than same time last year and at a significantly cheaper price than Australian and US wheat.

In SEA region, we are getting inquiries for Australian wheat forward shipments. This week we heard trade offers quoted for APW1 to U$270/mt levels & APH2 to U$332/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports in containers. Bit of an uptick in shipments of wheat in containers ex Australia as per latest stats – is increased by approx. 25% from Dec,23; as Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand are main buyers. Exports of bulk in vessel is increased by 104% from Dec’23; as China & Indonesia remained top buyer as per ABS.

Australian red sorghum is in demand this week in China, trading at U$290+/-/mt to CNF China main ports. Also, Australian green mung beans are also gaining some interest, with quotes between U$945-950/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers May shipments. Interest in Kaspa peas seen earlier this week at USD 415/mt main China ports.

India’s demand for Australian red lentils is slow due to domestic rabi crop harvesting on cards, as we heard from the market sources that with few forward cargo trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$700/mt for June shipments in containers. There was a slight uptick in forward demand earlier this week which was mainly driven by lower mandi arrivals in India coupled with some fear of increased government purchases which may decrease stock availability. However, with an exportable surplus of 800,000 MT+ from Australia and significant stock at government warehouses, any surges should be limited.

Australian desi chickpeas & lentils are experiencing a bearish market in Pakistan due to the Ramadan festival and local crop harvesting on the cards, as heard from the market source that lentils vessel of 22K is arrived at port & also desi chickpeas vessel of 16K enroute to Pakistan, as result local market is down at the moment. This week heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$695/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers. Desi chickpeas – no demand forthcoming with seller quotes ranging $640 CHKM to $690 CHK1 (23/24)

Interest in Australian KASPA PEAS and CHK1 has been observed in Bangladesh, with trade offers quoted at U$460/mt levels & U$685/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. Limited sales though with LC opening issues still ongoing.

No movement / demand in Nepal for Australian lentils, desi chickpeas & GM canola seeds in CFR Birgunj.

Egyptian pound devalued almost 50% this week, from 31 pounds to the dollar to 50 pounds/dollar, stabilised at 49.5. USD inflows expected to increase which may assist USD availability. No demand for faba or lentils from Egypt this week.

The Australian dollar experienced 1% jump this week, now trading 0.6632.

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venedor0 commentsMarch 1, 2024Uncategorized

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (01/03/2024)

Demand for Australian wheat is significantly reduced due to cheaper offers from CIS origins into the SE Asia region. Futures continue to be trending lower everyday due to very competitive offers from Black Sea origins and an anticipated heavy northern hemisphere grain supply. However, since last week we have seen increased market demand from SE Asia flour mills – market participants figure the market now at or about to be at bottom. Forward purchasing intentions upto Jul/Aug shipment periods have been seen. APW1 yesterday quoted at sub U$275/mt – $280/mt levels; APH2 at U$335/mt levels to CFR SEA major ports.

Australia red sorghum is experiencing stable demand in China, with SOR1 trading between U$287-290/mt to major ports. Australian Sorghum crop looks to be larger than anticipated given good in crop rain, crops maturing well and sound quality. At this stage we expect Sorghum crop to be north of 2 mmt given the large planting in Central Queensland. ABARE report next week which will reflect crop forecasts.

Mung beans also seems to be growing well given ideal conditions of soil moisture and are quoted at U$975-980/mt to CFR Qingdao for April/May shipments.

Bit of demand now flowing into Kaspa/Dun peas from China and Bangladesh as a result of India extending duty free period for YP. Some business been done into China par/sub U$410 levels CFR China major ports and U$440 +/- into Chittagong.

Australian barley containerized business & bulk in vessel are trading at U$250-255/mt levels to CNF China major ports. It has remained sideways these values now for past 2 months. Barley is in good availability in Australia due to lack of domestic and export markets but China demand is lower/flat.

Pakistan’s market is experiencing slow demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas as buyers have completed Ramadan purchases and awaiting shipments arrival. Recent trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers with small continuing demand. A bulk vessel also reported enroute which may impose price pressure on local market. Desi chickpeas demand from Pakistan remains quiet.

Indian domestic rabi crop harvesting is accelerating, leading to a slow demand for Australian red lentils, with forward cargo trading at U$685/mt levels to CFR Kolkata in containers as per market sources.

In Nepal, there is no significant trading activity for Australian lentils, Desi chickpeas, and Canola. We heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Some small quantities of Canola seed have traded $570+ levels CFR Birgunj for Mar/Apr period.

In Egypt, market demand slow for Faba beans, as we heard trade offer at U$480/mt levels to CFR Damietta in containers. Longer transit from Australia(90+ days) as container vessels transit via Cape to Europe and reroute back to Damietta and USD availability in Egypt have hit recent demand as northern hemisphere faba supplies will kick in May/Jun onwards. A couple of bulk faba vessels yet to load ex Australia for which domestic Victoria accumulations bids are strong and thus keep containers from being offered at competitive values.

AUD/USD at the 0.65 mark is helping forward export business commitments, however we are witnessing slow demand from destinations across all commodities.

Australian east coast sub-soil moisture is good at this stage and Western Australia has also seen recent rain events – this has lifted grower planting intentions for the winter crop. Mar/Apr planting rains will be crucial to deliver a good crop planting. ABARE forecasts awaited next week 05Mar24.

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venedor0 commentsFebruary 23, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (23/02/2024)

Global wheat market still dominated by Black Sea wheat. Australian wheat is having difficulty because of the sluggish demand in the SEA region; this week, APW1 and APH2 were quoted at U$280/mt levels and U$340/mt levels to CNF major SEA ports in containers.

China is returning from vacation & we are seeing demand for Australian red sorghum, as heard this week trading at U$290/mt levels at CFR Tianjin. We have learned that Australian Mung beans were quoted at U$980/mt levels to CFR Qingdao. This week bids for Australian Kaspa peas are improving to U $400/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Australia’s red lentils are currently in slow demand in India; we learned last week that NIP1/HAL1 is trading in containers for CFR Kolkata at U$690–695/mt levels in containers. As reported last week, there is not much demand for faba beans, as heard Faba beans traded at U$445/mt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Yesterday, India extended yellow peas import time till 30th April 2024, Also heard from the market source that small quantity of Australian desi chickpeas traded at U$685/mt to CFR Mundra & multiple port options in containers this week.

In Pakistan, we are observing sluggish demand for Australian red lentils & we hearing Australian red lentils trading at U$700/mt levels.

In Nepal, no significant demand for Australian red lentils, chickpeas & GM canola. As we heard GM canola trade offers at U$575/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

We are seeing minimal demand in Egypt for Faba beans & as we are hearing trade offers at U$495/mt to CFR Damietta in containers.

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venedor0 commentsFebruary 9, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (09/02/2024)

Global wheat market is bearish, as market experts are anticipating rise in demand post Chinese New Year as China being key buyer. Australian wheat remains quiet due to lack of export demand from offshore market.

Very small demand from SEA millers for Australian wheat, as we heard APW1 being quoted at U$305/mt levels; APH2 being quoted at U$360/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports.

Export of wheat containerized increased by 11% in Dec,23 (134,782 MT) compared to previous month Nov23(121,487 MT); major buyers are Thailand, Vietnam & China. Export of bulk in wheat increased by 26% in Dec,23 (1,267,514 MT) compared to Nov,23 (1,007,848 MT); Top importers are China, Philippines & Indonesia in December as per ABS.

Australian desi chickpeas demand remains slow as no participation from Nepal, UAE, Pakistan & Bangladesh already covered Ramadhan demand in December. Small pocket size demand from Bangladesh at about U$685/mt CFR Chittagong levels.

Export of chickpeas increased by 189% in Dec,23 (94,763MT) compared to Nov,23 (32,697MT); most bulk shipments only executing. Main buyer is Bangladesh in December as per ABS.

We observe a strong demand for Australian red sorghum as China’s new holidays get near, and we have heard that sorghum is trading for between U$295-U$305/mt to CNF China major ports. Australian mung beans are trading in containers to CFR Qingdao at U$950-955/mt levels.

Kaspa peas no significant trade demand against cheaper Russian yellow peas at U$380/mt to CNF China major ports; Australian barley not competitive against Russian barley at U$240-245/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Exports of Lentils increased by 99% in Dec,23 (237,345 MT) compared to Nov,23 (119,134 MT); Top importers are India & Bangladesh in December as per ABS. Onoing demand from India at sub/par U$700–U$710/mt to CFR Kolkata/NS all the way upto June,24 shipment period. Limited volume trades in containers as margins have eroded for traders and significant grower selling resistance below these levels. India’s Rabi crop outlook is key factor in determining price direction and demand on lentils in the coming months. Extended period of cold weather and sudden change of temperature in crucial Feb/Mar period may have an impact on yield – remains to be seen.

The Pakistani domestic desi chickpea crop is gaining attention as it could potentially determine the new direction and price in the market. Currently no demand forthcoming and with elections counting underway we expect market to be quiet for atleast next 1 month till a stable government is sworn in with new direction and cues to trade.

We are observing minimal trade activity in Australain lentils into Pakistan & heard trade offers for CHKM at U$620/mt levels & NIP1/HAL1 at U$715/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, observing trade activity in Kaspa peas, which trading at U$445/mt levels to CFR Chittagong. As we heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$695/mt levels and CHK1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers for prompt shipments.

Presently, there is no significant demand in Nepal for Australian lentils, CHK1, or canola, but buyers are bidding at lower prices for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725-U$730/mt levels; CHK1 at U$650/mt levels; canola at U$570/mt levels – all CFR Birgunj which are not viable as Australian replacement cost is higher.

Containerised exports of pulses and grains remain subdued in Q1 on account lower demand from destinations who have remained well fed by northern hemisphere origins as growers in Australia continue to dribble out only small quantities of all grains and pulses and there is significant resistance to selling below target values. Pulses export volumes continue to be driven by bulk vessel exports of lentils, chickpeas and faba beans to Indian sub-continent and Middle East markets.

We are attending GPC Pulses 24 conference in New Delhi from 14th Feb 24 to 17th Feb 24 and subsequently also attending Gulfood event at Dubai from 19th Feb 24 to 23rd Feb 24, please feel free to reach out to us for a catch up/discussion or just to say hello if you are attending any of these events.

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venedor0 commentsJanuary 26, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (26/01/2024)

Australian wheat market prices remain unchanged last week due to slow demand from offshore destinations. Markets mostly trading sideways with now new upside factors yet. Weather impacts to northern hemisphere wheat Feb onwards would be the next drivers of volatility – remains to be seen. SEA millers are also generating very limited demand in the region, with APW1 being quoted at U$300/mt levels for major SEA ports in containers. Heard bulk APW offers at U$295 CNF SEA ports; ASW high U$270’s CNF SEA ports.

Australian barley facing fierce competition from Black Sea & Argentina in China market. Hearing Russian barley being quoted between U$230-245/mt levels to CNF major China ports & Australian barley quoted at U$275/mt levels in containers. Bulk Australian barley flows continue into China is at regular pace with appx. 3 mmt exported since restrictions were lifted.

Negligible demand for Kaspa peas in China with their YP stock at ports in excess of 300k mt and slow local markets. Any new price direction now to be post Chinese New Year holidays(09Feb24 to 18Feb24). Australian red sorghum trade offers at U$310-315/mt in containers against cheaper USA sorghum offers at U$295/mt to CNF major China ports with limited buying interest. New crop Australian mungbeans have also continued to trade at around U$950/mt levels CNF Qingdao. Australian summer crop Sorghum & mungbeans are currently expected to be doing well on back of ample moisture due to recent rain events in eastern Australia. Sorghum harvest expected by trade at this stage to be closer/over 2mmt – ABARE numbers yet awaited). Harvest will be well spread out with Central Queensland planting the crop in Jan, harvest likely May/June/July, early southern crops starting to harvest now. Mungbeans with weather permitting may be a 100kmt crop although numbers not yet out and traders keeping fingers crossed.

Demand for Australian red lentils in India is pretty much flat, with no major trading activity reported last week. We heard trade offers of NIP1/HAL1 at U$710-715/mt levels & also heard from the market sources that NIP1/HAL1 traded at U$705/mt in containers (April/May) shipment. As India’s Rabi crop starts to mature Feb onwards, we may see some direction with hopes YP/lentils will continue to be imported to fill in any Rabi crop shortfalls.

In Nepal, no major trade activity in Australian red lentils & Desi chickpeas, while limited quantity of Australian canola min.44% traded at U$585-590/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Heard small demand for Australian Lentils at $730 – $740/mt and Desi’s at $640/mt CNF Birgunj – not viable basis Australia replacement cost.

The current market in Pakistan is bearish on the pulses complex; CHKM is being quoted at U$615/mt and NIP1/HAL1 lentils at U$715/mt levels in containers. As heard from market sources that limited CHKM trades were reported between at U$590-595/mt levels in containers.

Australian red lentils are not gaining significant attention in Bangladesh. Enquiries for Canola and Kaspa peas at U$560-565/mt and U$460-470/mt levels respectively CNF Chittagong. CHK1 trade reported below U$695/mt levels to CNF Chittagong in container. 5 Chickpeas vessels(150kmt) on track ex Australia for Bangladesh arrival in Q1, 2024.

In Egypt, we are observing limited trade activity in Faba beans, which is trading over $485/mt (fiesta type)& Warda type over U$465/mt to CFR Damietta in containers last week. Red Sea surcharges affecting trade flows to Egypt although demand remains consistent.

On 2024 cropping, Australia should be on track to produce a major crop in winter 2024 thanks to the summer rains across all eastern Australia cropping areas filling up the deficits on soil moisture profiles. According to some analysts 2024 winter crop could be on track to produce in excess of 31mmt wheat; 13mmt barley; 6mt canola weather permitting.

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venedor0 commentsJanuary 12, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (12/01/2024)

Global wheat markets experienced a seasonal slowdown during the festive season break, while Australian wheat markets remained quiet as well. In SE Asia region, APW being quoted at U$305/mt levels & AH2 being quoted at U$385/mt levels to CFR major SEA ports.

In desi chickpeas, experiencing slow demand in new crop from any destination. Nepal is completely absent from participation. No price parity in Pakistan & Bangladesh market.

Australian lentil demand is bearish in India, we heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$735-740/mt levels to Kolkata with no firm buying interest. Limited trades reported last week between at U$710-715/mt levels in containers.

We are seeing some trade activities in Pakistan around desi chickpeas as Ramadan is near buyers are trying to secure coverage in Jan shipments. We heard trade offers for CHKM quoted at U$625-630/mt levels to CFR Karachi for Jan shipments in containers & also we are hearing trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$730/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Nepal, no major developments are observed in Australian lentils, desi chickpeas & Canola seeds. As we are hearing buying idea for GM Canola min.44% at U$580/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

The Chinese market is silent as no firm demand coming for Australian barley & KASPA PEAS. Buyers are receiving trade offers of Russian barley at U$230/mt as the feed market searches for low-cost barley. For Australian sorghum, we are hearing buying idea at U$320-330/mt levels for new crop to CNF China major ports in containers.

In Egypt, we are observing some activity in Faba beans, as we heard trade offers for Faba beans quoted at U$485/mt levels to CFR Damietta in containers.

The Bangladeshi market is silent, no participation from buyers.

Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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