Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (14/06/2024)

US wheat crop harvest, harvest commencing in Europe and alleviating weather concerns for Russia have eased global wheat prices; Australian wheat prices have also eased following global cues. APW prices have declined by A$12–15/MT this week.

Australian wheat is expected to face intense competition from Russian and Ukrainian wheat in the SEA & EA region, since Turkey has put a hold on wheat imports from both nations until the next government notification. In SEA region APW being quoted at U$308/MT levels to CFR Major SEA ports which is U$10 higher than CIS origins.

Indian pulses markets continue to trade under fundamental demand matrix though with increased fears of government controls. Market sources indicate that the current crop of Australian desi chickpeas are nearly sold out, origin prices for new crop are firming up as demand from India is expected to remain strong in the coming months.

Demand for Australian desi chickpeas in India has eased in the past week with offers and bids declining U$10/MT week on week; offers are quoted at U$890/MT to CNF India ports (Jul/Aug) with limited buyer interest, and forward month business is reportedly trading at U$860-65/MT to CNF India (Oct/Nov) in containers. Australian red lentils are in low demand; hearing that trade reported at U$745/mt to CFR Kolkata in containers.

In Pakistan, the Eid festival is approaching, and there has been no trade activity for the past 5 weeks due to sluggish demand. Current trade offers are reported for NIP1/HAL1 at U$750-755/MT, CHK1 at U$910/MT, & CHKM at U$835/MT to CFR Karachi in containers.

Australia’s red sorghum is in stable to low demand in China, hearing trade offers at U$304/MT to CFR Tianjin (Jul/Aug) in containers. There is minimal demand for Australian GMB P-grades because other origins of GMB are more reasonably priced. Trade offers of Australian GMB-P grade at U$980/MT to CFR Qingdao. Kaspa peas have been quoted at U$505/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers, reflecting some buyer interest.

In Nepal, minimal demand for Australian canola, chickpeas, and red lentils. we hearing trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$795/MT to CFR Birgunj & recent trade reported for canola at U$630/MT to CFR Kolkata (J/J or J/A) in containers. 

In Egypt, there is minimal demand for Australian faba beans and lupins. Trade offers for faba beans have been heard at USD 545-550/MT to CFR Damietta.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (07/06/2024)

According to the latest ABARES report, the forecast for winter crop production in 2024/25 is as follows: Wheat – 29.1MT, Barley – 11.5MT, Canola – 5.4MT, Lentils – 1.6MT, Chickpeas – 1.1MT & Lupins – 1.39MT.

Last week, the weather in Russia and Ukraine turned out better than expected, which caused the global wheat market to dip. Australian wheat market also experienced a price decline, dropping by A$10-12 nationwide. In SEA, APW is quoted at U$312/MT; APH2 at U$350/MT levels to CFR SEA major ports.

The Chinese market is currently stable to low due to weak demand. Australian sorghum is quoted at U$305/MT levels CNF China major ports, attracting limited buyer interest. However, buyers are looking at cheaper sorghum from the USA and Argentina origin; market reports suggest that USA sorghum is trading in bulk at U$296/MT, while Argentine sorghum is trading in bulk below U$260/MT to CNF China major ports.

Australian GMB – P grade is being quoted at U$1020/MT levels to CFR Qingdao with limited buyer interest as buyers receiving offering of GMB from Myanmar origin at U$810/MT levels to CNF China ports. 

Australian MALT1 barley is quoted at U$310/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers, yet buyers are opting to wait as the prices are not viable. Similarly, for MALT FAQ barley, buyers’ bids stand at U$272/MT for containers, which is considered far too low given the high origination prices in Australia.

KASPA PEAS demand is minimal, as we heard trade offer quoted at U$505/MT to CFR Tianjin while buyers bids remain at U$470/MT levels.   

Pakistan’s market has been sluggish for the past four weeks; no demand coming for Australian red lentils & desi chickpeas. As we hearing NIP1/HAL1 being quoted at U$755/MT; CHK1 at U$920/MT & CHKM at U$840/MT levels to CFR Karachi (Jul/Aug) in containers.

India’s desi chickpeas demand has remained steady; however, there was no trading activity last week due to the expected election results. Offers quoted at CHK1 at U$910/MT to CNF India in containers (Jun/Jul). Australian red lentils demand is minimal at the moment, as we are hearing NIP1/HAL1 offer quoted at U$745/MT to CNF India in containers. As we learned from market sources that Tanzanian desi chickpeas trading at U$875/MT to CNF India (Aug/Oct) in containers.

Nepal’s market is currently not showing interest in Australian desi chickpeas, red lentils, and canola; as trade offers at quoted at U$935/MT; U$805/MT & U$680/MT levels to CFR Birgunj in containers (Jul/Aug) in containers.

Egypt’s market experiencing sluggishness in Faba beans & Lupins demand.

In Bangladesh, getting few inquiries for Australian canola & Kaspa peas. 

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (31/05/2024)

All eyes on Russia and Ukraine weather concerns presently. There have been significant downgrades to Russian wheat crop on account of frosts and dryness in key growing areas although some rains now forecast. Yield potential (more likely in vicinity of 80 – 85 MMT) is still a large unknown until harvest, which is weighing on traders pricing of forward new crop business on both cereals and pulses from those origins.

There is talk of India eliminating its wheat import duty which will likely see an import volume of wheat about 5-6MMT June onwards. GOI working front foot to build its buffer wheat stock purchasing 26.24 MMT vs target of 31 MMT with Indian growers holding back on sales anticipating higher prices.

This week Australian wheat prices have risen due to increased offshore market demand and dryness affecting most parts of the country. In SEA, APW trade reported below U$310/MT levels to CFR SEA main ports in containers.

In QLD & NSW, desi chickpea planting is progressing well. More barley acres reportedly being diverted to chickpeas. We are largely expecting upto 1 million ha being planted to chickpeas between the two states. There has been robust demand for Australian desi chickpeas in India, trades are reported at U$900/MT for Jun/Jul shipments & forward trade reported at U$875/MT for Nov/Dec to CNF India in containers.

Lentils have been planted dry is SA and VIC, however this week between 10-25 mm rain has fallen on SA cropping region which will boost sentiments. Trade demand for Australian red lentils is stable, as we heard trade reported at U$745/MT – J/J shipment to CNF India in containers.

The lack of firm demand for Australian lentils and desi chickpeas from Pakistan over the past three weeks. No trade movement in the market as we are hearing trade offers quoted for NIP1/HAL1 – U$755-760/MT; CHK1 – U$920/MT; CHKM – U$810/MT to CFR Karachi in containers with no firm interest from buyers. According to market experts, there has been a significant price surge in the Pakistani local market this week, with CHKM reaching U$700/MT and NIP/HAL1 reaching U$715/MT. 

Lack of participation from Nepal for Australian red lentils, desi chickpeas & canola as prices are not workable for business at the moment. We heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$810/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers. 

Bangladesh is not participation due to slow demand for Australian desi chickpeas & lentils & also no price parity in the destination market at present. Getting some inquiries for Kaspa peas.

Chinese market is currently seeing a dip in demand. Australian sorghum is being quoted at U$300/MT to CNF China main ports for July/Aug shipment with limited buying interest, as buyers are eyeing on to cheaper options such as USA Sorghum & Argentina sorghum. No buying interest for Australian GMB as trade offers at U$920/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers.  

In Egypt, observing minimal demand for faba beans & lupins. As we heard that lupins trade reported at U$510/MT to CFR Damietta in containers. Aus Faba beans have been bid USD540/MT Damietta.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/05/2024)

Current weather patterns in Black Sea and the US are causing price fluctuations in the global wheat market. As per market experts that East and West Australia are predicted to experience dry patterns. In SEA, APW quoted at U$319/MT levels to CNF SEA major ports.

The ongoing heatwave in India has resulted in a sharp spike in the cost of vegetables and pulses. Australia’s desi chickpeas, both old and new crop, is in high demand in India. Hearing trade offers as follows :

  • CHK1(23/24) at U$910/MT to CNF India (Jun/Jul) & while new crop CHK1(24/25) at U$875/MT to CNF India (Nov/Dec) in containers.

As we are hearing recent trades have been reported at the following levels :

  • CHK1(23/24) at U$860-870/MT to CFR Nhava Sheva (Jun/Jul) & while CHK1(24/25) at U$830/MT to CNF India (Dec/Jan) in containers.

The demand for Australian lentils in India remains stable, trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 are being quoted at U$740/MT to CNF India (Jun/July) & while forward trade reported for NIP1/HAL1 at U$700-705/MT to CNF India (Nov/Dec) in containers.

The trade activity for Australian desi chickpeas and red lentils in Pakistan has been sluggish over the past two weeks, with no trade movement reported. Demand remains weak, reflecting market condition. As we are hearing trade offers quoted for NIP1/HAL1 at U$750-755/MT; CHKM at U$800/MT & CHK1 at U$910/MT to CFR Karachi (Jun/Jul) in containers.

In China, demand for Australian red sorghum is stable, as we are hearing trade offers quoted at U$312/MT levels to CFR Tianjin (Jul/Aug) in containers & while, bulk cargo of Australian reported trading at U$310/MT levels in July. No firm interest in Australian GMB, quoted at U$920/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers.

In Nepal, we hearing trade offer of NIP1/HAL1 at U$785/MT levels to CFR Birgunj. No demand for Australian desi chickpeas at the moment.

In Egypt, no major demand for faba beans & lupins, as we are hearing that 4 bulk cargoes of faba beans has covered up market demand. As we hearing trade offer quoted for faba beans at U$530/MT to CFR Damietta in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (17/05/2024)

USDA report projected a 24/25 season global increase in wheat production of 798.2 MMT, primarily from Kazakhstan, Canada, China, India, Australia, and the US. However, ending stocks projected at a tight 253.61 MMT which was bullish news along with weather impact concerns on Russian crop harvesting in July. Australia is expected to produce 29MMT in 24/25. Northern hemisphere harvest commencing July will determine course on wheat pricing for next season and is expected to be slightly bullish.

The Australian wheat cash markets have closely followed bullish sentiments with cash bids up about A$10 pmt across all port zones. The current prices quoted as per market sources for APW and APH2 stand at U$310-U$320/MT and U$390-U$400/MT range to CNF SEA major ports.

The Australian chickpea market continues to be strong, buoyed by short harvest in India. Market still has not found decent parity with origin bid strongly whilst destination interest remains weak. Trade offers for CNF major India ports stand at U$850/MT for June/July & U$820/MT for Nov/Dec shipments. Domestic markets in India slowly creeping up on pricing due to low arrivals whilst potential of government intervention looms.

Australian red lentils are trading at U$730/MT – CFR Kolkata for June/July shipment. Demand is better this past week though with lower selling by growers in Vic/SA, origin pricing maintains its strength and traders struggle with profitability.

Trade movement for Pakistan destination is stagnant due to low demand for Australian lentils and chickpeas. Reports indicate that trade offers for CHKM are quoted at U$790/MT; CHK1 at U$865/MT ; and NIP1/HAL1 at U$725/MT to CFR Karachi in containers. Market experts suggest that the local market is slow, with CHKM priced at U$665/MT and Nipper at U$700/MT equivalent which is a fair bit off from import values creating disparity.

Demand for Australian sorghum in China remains steady, with trade offers cited at U$295/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers as Chinese buyer showing interest in Argentina’s sorghum trading at 260/MT levels in bulk shipments. A couple of bulk Australian sorghum cargoes reportedly traded for Jun/Jul shipment at U$285-U$290 CNF China ports. Further this week there has been a lack of buying interest for Australian GMB, indicating weak demand, with trade offers for Processing grade at U$920/MT to CFR Qingdao. Australian barley is trading at U$280-282/MT in boxes, with bulk shipments priced at USD 275/MT for CNF China main port. Additionally, Kaspa peas have target buying levels at U$420/MT, contrasting with offers at U$475/MT as Australia origin values remain strong and illiquid. 

Trade movements for Faba beans and Lupins in Egypt have remained stagnant, with Lupins being quoted at U$540/MT for CIF Damietta in containers, yet there has been no notable interest from buyers. Faba beans demand covered by bulk vessels and longer containers transit to Egypt keeping traders away.

In Bangladesh, trade offers for CHK1 have been quoted at U$825/MT CFR Chittagong in containers for Nov/Dec shipments, but there is limited interest from buyers. Kaspa peas quoted at U$490-495/MT levels to CFR Chittagong containers.

In Nepal, we are noticing minimal trade demand for Australian lentils & no firm demands for CHK1, as NIP1/HAL1 trades reported at U$760 CNF Birgunj and quoted at U$765/MT levels.

South Australia, parts of Victoria and WA remain dry which is causing some trade anxiety and lower grower sales participation in current markets. Dryness now may also impact 24/25 crop prospects in these 2 states. Qld, NSW and eastern parts of Victoria are well poised for a good planting due to substantial availability of subsoil moisture. About 70% of winter crop expected to have been planted by mid-May.

Traders projecting a desi chickpeas crop of appx. 1.5 MMT with increased planting intentions on account of extremely good pricing cues of upcountry bids of A$1000 +/-. ABARE June crop report eagerly awaited by trade for crop size and potential.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (10/05/2024)

The dry conditions in Russia over the past week have driven US and European wheat futures to their highest levels. The global wheat market has been on an upward trend since last week. Domestic wheat prices in Australia have seen an increase of A$10 to A$15. In SEA region, APW being quoted at U$300/MT levels; APH2 at U$355/MT levels to CNF SEA major ports. 

Australian containerized wheat exports saw a 13.6% increase in Mar,24 compared to last month, primarily to Indonesia, China, and Taiwan, while bulk wheat exports grew by 12% in Mar24 compared to last month, with China, Indonesia, and Yemen being the top importers as per ABS.

India lifted import duty on Australian desi chickpeas. It is NIL duty till 31 March 2025. This has led to a price increase for both old and new crop in Australia. Trade offers for Australian CHK1 are being heard at U$815/MT for November/December shipments to CNF India’s main ports. Some trades of CHK1 have been reported at U$790-800/MT. Price discovery still on and we note that trade volumes are low till some price floor is reached on desi chickpeas. Currently, the market demand for Australian lentils into India is sluggish, with trade offers at U$725-730/MT in containers, yet there is no firm interest from buyers.

Reports indicate that Pakistan’s domestic desi chickpea crop has not met its production target. The local market saw a significant increase in CHKM prices, jumping from U$620/MT to U$680/MT over the weekend. We hearing the CHKM quoted at U$780/MT to CFR Karachi (May/June) in containers. Meanwhile, there is a slow demand for Australian red lentils, with trade offers heard at U$725 per metric ton to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, there is a noticeable interest in the Australian CHK1 (new crop), with trade offers reported at U$780/MT for CFR Chittagong for October shipment.

Australian desi chickpeas export is up by 1% compared to the last month, with Bangladesh, UAE & Pakistan are major buyers as per ABS.

Australian lentil exports rose by 70% in Mar,24 compared to the previous month, with Bangladesh and India as major importers as per ABS.

The Chinese market remains stable for Sorghum, with a keen interest in Argentina’s sorghum, which is trading at U$250/MT for CNF China in bulk. Meanwhile, Australian sorghum is being offered at U$298-300/MT in containers, but there is limited interest due to the offers not meeting the buyers’ target price of U$290/MT.

Currently, there is weak demand for Australian GMB, with trade offers at USD 930/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers. The demand for Kaspa peas remains minimal, with trade offers heard at USD 455/MT to CFR Tianjin in containers. There is consistent demand for barley, with Australian barley competing with Russian barley; trade offers for Australian barley are at U$275/MT to CFR Tianjin.

In Nepal, there is currently minimal demand for Australian red lentils and Canola. Trade offers for CHK1 are being quoted at NIP1/HAL1 – U$775/MT levels, while Canola with a min 44% is trading at U$605/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (03/05/2024)

Recent issues in the Middle East and Black Sea regions have led to a firm up of the global wheat markets, propelling prices upward, while the Australian wheat market has strengthened last week. As we are hearing that APW traded at US$289/MT for CFR BMT for July shipment; APH2 being quoted at US$350/MT to CNF major SEA ports.

This week, as China is on holiday, the market demand has slowed. However, Australian red sorghum no. 1 is currently trading at U$285/MT for CFR Tianjin for July/August shipments. There is no firm interest in Australian GMB processing grade, with trade offers at U$940/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers. Similarly, there is no demand for Kaspa peas, with trade offers heard at U$440/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers. Trade offers for Australian barley stand at U$262/MT levels to CNF major China ports.

Since last two weeks demand for old crop desi chickpeas is strengthening, reflecting interest for May/June shipments from ME, Pakistan & Bangladesh. Despite domestic crop in India and Pakistan on harvest now, we are continuing to see strengthening domestic demand strength in both countries and there is expectation that demand will continue to spike towards end of 2024 due to a tight domestic balance sheet on account of lower planted area. Speculative still whether India will allow duty free imports. Trade offers for CHKM have been reported at U$685/MT for CFR Karachi, but buyer interest remains limited while they receive supplies from domestic crop harvest at an import parity basis U$595-U$600/MT. New crop Oct/Nov/Dec shipment slot Australian CHK1 remains strongly bid by traders in Australia and for CFR markets. Australian CHK1 new crop, with market offers seen at U$770/MT (Oct/Nov/Dec) & CHK1 old crop, trade offers at U$750/MT (June/July) for multiple port options.

The demand for Australian red lentils has slowed down. Additionally, trade offeror NIP1/HAL1 are being offered at U$720-U$730/MT to Indian sub-continent ports (June/July) in containers. Market experts indicate that local market prices have decreased, with Nipper at import buying interest basis of U$695/MT.

Trade activity in Nepal is stagnant due to sluggish market demand. Current trade offers for CHK1 are reported at U$810/MT for CFR Birgunj. Meanwhile, canola is indicated at U$650/MT for CFR Birgunj, yet there is no interest from buyers. 

The market demand for faba beans & lupins is weak in Egypt, with very limited business opportunities in containerized trade compared to bulk shipping, as the local crop harvest is near. Trade offers for lupins have been reported to CFR Damietta in containers at U$490/MT with limited buyer interest. Faba beans earlier bid U$505/MT CFR Damietta in containers but this week demand has waned. Very limited supplies in Australia as bulk shippers chasing limited tonnes with aggressive pricing to fill their shipping commitments in May/June.

On crop plating in Australia, WA and SA are dry sowing with both states receiving limited rain. Qld, NSW and parts of Vic have received good rainfall and expecting more this weekend which should be for seed germination and crop growth.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (26/04/2024)

Global wheat production forecast for 2024/25 has been reduced by 1 MMT to 798 MMT, despite a 9 MMT increase from 2023/24. The IGC has increased its forecast for Australian wheat exports in 2024/25 by 500KT due to reduced availability of low-cost wheat from the Black Sea region. APW quoted mid $270 main SE Asia ports in containers.

Global canola/rapeseed production for 2024/25 is expected to be 87.8 MMT, the lowest since 2021/22, while Australia’s projected yield is expected to rise by 400KT than last season as per IGC. We are hearing Australian GM canola trade offers quoted at U$620/MT levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

Global barley production, which hit a 5 year low in 2023/24, is anticipated to increase to 151.2 MMT in 2024/25. Concurrently, Australian barley production is expected to reach 11.6 MMT, while Australian barley exports are projected to increase to 8.2MMT in 2024/25, up from 7.9MMT in the previous season as per IGC & thanks to China’s stable demand for barley. As we are hearing Australia barley trade offers quoted at U$260/MT levels to CNF China main ports in containers. 

In China, the demand for sorghum remains stable to low, with trade offers reported at U$285/MT levels to CFR Tianjin in containers for July/August shipments. Buyer interest in Australian GMB is limited, trade offers quoted at U$930/MT (processing grade) less U$60 for manufacturing grade levels to CFR Qingdao in containers. Kaspa peas – last trade reported at U$415/MT levels to CFR Tianjin in containers for June/July shipments.

This week, we are observing demand for old crop of desi chickpeas has strengthened for May/June shipment in Pakistan & Nepal.  Following the Eid holidays, demand for Australian desi chickpeas M grade and old crop 22/23 has surged while that for red lentils has slowed in Pakistan. Delays in the harvest due to rain have led to an increase in the price of CHKM to U$606/MT in domestic market. Trade offers have been quoted for NIP/HAL1 at U$725/MT; CHKM (old crop) at U$675/MT for CFR Karachi in containers. In Nepal, trade reported for NIP1/HAL1 at U$750/MT to CFR Birgunj, while offers for CHKM (old crop) at U$670/MT; CHK1(old crop) at U$710/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers.

The domestic desi chickpea market in India is tightening, we are observing effect to Australian desi chickpeas forward trade offers quoted at U$740/MT levels to multiple port options for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments. The slow domestic arrival of lentils is creating a demand for Australian red lentils, with trade offers heard at U$720/MT levels in containers. Hearing that trade reported for faba beans at U$470/MT to CFR Kolkata levels in containers.

Following the Eid holiday, there is good demand for faba beans and no demand on lupins. Faba beans availability is low amid limited grower selling in Victoria and South Australia with high price bids from bulk buyers for 3 vessels scheduled for May-June period. Container Price indications are as follows: Lupins – U$515/MT; Faba beans – U$505/MT levels to CFR Damietta in containers.

Western Australia continues to remain dry with limited 5-10mm rain forecast for next 8 days. Canola is being planted dry and growers hoping for a break to proceed with cereals planting.

East Coast Australia has fared better with planting in progress across states of SA, VIC, NSW & QLD. Sowing is progressing smoothly with canola planting completing in next 5-10 days and pulses and cereals being sowed after. Some areas in SA need more rain for planting whilst QLD needs more dry days to complete planting. More on planting numbers in the coming few weeks.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (12/04/2024)

Australian wheat market sees small price increases at grower level earlier this week but wheat is globally still in bearish trend with large ending stocks as per latest WASDE report. Export demand remains low in SEA regions, with APW containers quoted at low U$280/mt – traded U$273/mt Thailand port; APH2 at U$345/mt to CNF SEA major ports with lack of interest from buyers. China continues to cancel US & Australia wheat bulk shipments as they may be looking at other cheaper origins and their own upcoming harvest for lower priced purchases.

The global oilseed markets, purely driven by middle-east security macros have led crude oil and palm oil price surges. Australian canola prices in turn have also been receiving support last week. With rapeseed harvest from Ukraine, May onwards we may see some global downward pressure in physical markets. Canola container business pricing presently unworkable to Nepal at U$620/mt levels.

In India, with the limited arrival of domestic lentils in the local mandi’s and perceived tight pulses crops balance sheet, there has been some activity in the Australian red lentils market. Trades have been reported at US$720/MT levels for CFR Kolkata in containers for June/July shipment in containers. Australia domestic pricing has surged A$40-A$50 pmt in last 10 days. No demand for faba beans in India, as we heard trade offers at U$490-495/mt to CFR Kolkata with no interest from buyers.

Demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas in Pakistan is sluggish, which is also influenced by the ongoing Eid holiday’s. Reportedly, there is limited buyer interest in the trade offer for NIP1/HAL1 at US$715/mt to CFR Karachi this week.

Australian Lentil export shipments surged by 61% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; India and Pakistan were the leading buyers, as per ABS.

The Australian chickpea market has traded sideways in both new and old crops this week. There has been limited buying activity from countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates. New crop 24/25 (Oct-Dec) crop containers trading with multi-port options around U$720/mt CFR sub-continent/ME ports. There has been very limited grower participation in forward selling of new crop chickpeas just yet but we expect this kind of pricing will be strong motivation for growers to increase acreage planted to chickpeas – we will know more in June once crops are planted.

Chickpea export shipments increased by 44% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; Pakistan and the UAE were the major importers, as per ABS.

Trade activity in Nepal has been observed, with Australian red lentils trading at US$755/mt levels for CFR Birgunj in containers.

In China, the demand for sorghum is currently stable to low for May/June/July shipments, with trade offers heard at U$302/mt CFR Tianjin in containers this week. Rains at harvest in Queensland have been a bit of dampener for Sorghum trade. Sorghum exports dropped by 51% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; China and Japan remained significant markets, as per ABS.

As we learned on GMB demand that due to the availability of GMB from other origins at lower prices, interest in Australian GMB has diminished; the quoted price for Australian GMB at US$940/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers.

Australian barley trade offers at U$270/mt to CNF China major ports with lack on interest. Barley exports, including feed barley, decreased by 38% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month, while malt barley exports fell by 63% during the same period; China continued as the primary buyer for both malt and feed barley, as per ABS.

Since last 2-3 weeks no significant demand is coming for faba beans & lupins from Egypt as Eid holiday’s going on. Australian faba beans are now on a tight balance sheet with limited availability of good quality beans in Victoria and South Australia. Prices have steadily increased, we can expect some more beans for export container business to only show in July post FY close for growers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/04/2024)

Australian wheat market has remained relatively unchanged over the past month, slight uptick in domestic bids of A$2-A$4 pmt last week – largely reflective of AUD/USD movements and demand and supply tightness for APW or higher grades whilst demand for ASW type is lower. Global wheat markets have been largely flat with no significant supply concerns and a large northern hemisphere crop expected.

Australian wheat exporters finding it difficult to secure new export business & also facing stiff competition from black sea wheat. We are hearing freight costs to SEA ex CIS going up which may open up some markets for Australian product. As we heard that APW is quoted at U$275/mt and APH2 at U$330/mt to CNF major SEA ports & also getting enquiries for feed wheat from China, buying idea at U$245/mt levels to CNF China ports.

The sorghum crop in Southern QLD has come under the weather with harvest stopping and some expected quality downgrades in SE QLD due to wet harvest. Later crops in Central QLD and Northern NSW should be ok. Quiet week on Sorghum as growers have stopped further selling and bids from shorts at slight uptick of A$2 to A$4 pmt upcountry.

In China, there’s continuing demand of Australian red sorghum forward shipments, particularly for July/August shipments, while interest in May/June or June/July shipments is lackluster due to slower consumption in Chinese markets. Bid levels CFR China ports around U$285 for Jul/Aug.

Green Mung beans are quoted at U$930/mt levels to CFR Qingdao, but there’s currently sideline interest from buyers. They are wanting to see quality of harvest currently underway. Some SE QLD mungbeans crop have quality issues now post 4 days of heavy rains in the region.

The Kaspa peas demand in China is slow with reports of small quantities trading at around U$415/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers. Australian barley is also being traded in China, with offers at U$265/mt to CNF China major ports for containers.

Australia’s local desi chickpea market is relatively quiet, with demand from key countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, UAE, and Nepal is sluggish, possibly picking up post-Eid according to market experts. Limited stocks and limited grower/trader selling have kept Australian chickpeas at flat price levels, no urgency to sell.

In Bangladesh, as Eid approaches, demand for Australian red lentils, CHK1, and Canola has slowed. As we heard that trades reported for Canola at U$540/mt levels and NIP/HAL1 at U$695/mt to CFR Chattogram.

Nepal’s market has been sluggish over the past 5-6 months, with Australian red lentils trading at $725/mt to CFR Birgunj; Canola has been priced out with container buyers pursuing market rally in last 1 month. Australian canola prices have been very strong on back of significant demand in bulk export markets on account of being still discounted to Canadian canola seed. Expect market offers around U$625-U$630/mt CFR Brigunj in containers.

Egypt’s market shows no major demand on containers business. Hearing trade offers for Faba beans at U$485/mt and Lupins at U$505/mt to CFR Damietta with no buying interest. Container transit at 95 days plus due to Red sea issues. Due to Red Sea issues most faba demand shifted to bulk vessels which have now priced out container business with bulk buyer Portland bids in Victoria at about A$600 port.

Pakistan experiences slow demand as Eid approaches, with Australian red lentils trade offers at U$690/mt to CFR Karachi. No demand in desi chickpeas.

In India, as the domestic harvest of chana and lentils is expected within two weeks, the demand for Australian red lentils remains low. Only a few trades have been reported for NIP/HAL1 at U$690/mt CFR Kolkata for shipments scheduled in May/June/July shipments. IMD warns extreme heat Apr-June period though rabi harvest may not be significantly impacted as crops have matured. Monsoonal impact yet unknown, though any anomalies may impact kharif crop. Food inflation still a worry for India due to low carrying stock on various grains and pulses and summer weather impact on other food categories in horticulture and fodder crops.

East coast of Australia has received some good March/April rains which will provide better moisture to plant the winter crop, though Western Australia has been dry which is a concern to winter crop prospects. We will know more on winter crop planting in a months time. Growers now gearing up to start planting winter crop in the East Coast from end April onwards.

Disclaimer : Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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