Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (20/07/2023)

Black Sea corridor is officially expired Russia reject the renewal of the deal. The Ukrainian president is cooperating with the UN & Turkey to continue the deal. As per market experts, Russia’s call-off did not initially impact the global wheat market as much as it was anticipated, though with yesterday’s bombing of Ukrainian port infrastructure and some 50k wheat stock, there was an acute increase in the price of wheat & corn market. Russia’s intent seems to be clearly in the direction of punishing Ukraine and applying pressure on the west to give in to their demands.

Russia might abolish export duties for grains/oilseeds/ veg oils if shipped to so-called ‘Friendly nations’ So countries like Egypt could buy Russian wheat cheaper & India save $ on sun oil imports – wheat etc. to be used as a geopolitical weapon

Australian wheat price remains uncompetitive even after getting the best freight rates against cheaper Russian wheat in the SE Asia region.

In SE Asia, we heard that APW traded Sahathai for 304 levels & APH13 traded CFR Laem Chabang for 370 levels.

For Barley, Australian growers have to wait a little longer as China demands one more month to review the tariffs before final comment.

Australian feed barley export is up by 14% & malt barley is declined by 48% ; KSA, Japan & Vietnam biggest importers – of feed barley; Vietnam, Peru & Ecuador are the top importers in n the month of May per ABS

Export of Sorghum is up by 25%; China accounted for 98% of the total export in May as per ABS.

Locally, Kaspa Field Peas prices shoot up by A$ 20-30. We are observing strong trade demand coming from China. Recent trade offers reported for Kaspa Peas – CFR Tianjin at U$ 390 – U$ 395 levels

Global canola market is climbing so as Australian canola both old & new crop prices went is up by $40 pmt.

In Nepal, we heard a trade offer for Ukrainian rapeseed at U$ 560- U$ 565 levels. Markets have moved up by almost U$40 pmt in last 2 weeks. No export price parity for Australian GM Canola seed yet.

Australian red lentils demand remains flat at the moment in India. No significant enquiry.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offers for CHKM – CFR Karachi at U$ 545 – U$ 550 levels. The local market is up as PKR currency is firming up after the IMF loan and demand continues.

DM us for the price indications & firm offers for Australian Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (13/07/2023) 

All eyes on black sea deal extension sets to expire on 17th July 2023, Russia threatened to quit deal & as Turkey President Erdogan want 3 months extension deal.  

As per RUSGRAIN union top importer of Russian wheat 22/23 season are Egpyt (11.9mmt), Türkiye (10.2 mmt), Algeria (3.3 million tons), Iran (3.1 million tons), and Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons).  

Australia wheat export increased by 9%; China, Philippines & Taiwan are top volume buyers in containerised business & again China is largest buyer followed by Vietnam & Indonesia in bulk in vessel business in May as per ABS.  

Australia canola unable to find’s the export parity in Nepal market against Ukraine’s rapseed. We heard trade offers at Ukraine rapeseed at U$ 520+/- levels – bulk in containers.   

Australia canola exports up by 56%; Pakistan, UAE & Japan are largest buyers in May as per ABS. 

Australia red lentils current demand from India is sluggish at the moment, market experts are anticipating that demand will pick up during festival & marriage seasons.  As we heard trade reported for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at CFR Kolkata U$ 670 levels & CFR Birgung (Nepal) U$ 682 levels, bulk in containers.  

Australia lentils exports up by 65%; India is largest buyer followed by Turkiye & Nepal in May as per ABS. Shipments still strong with upto 940k exported Jan,23 to May,23. Stocks seems to be tightening up with generally low-quality product remaining in VIC.  

In Pakistan, CHKM traded – CFR Karachi U$ 530+/- pmt in containers. Karachi local market price went up CHKM U$ 548 pmt & CHK1 U$ 555 pmt as per market advised received. PKR/U$ on recovery streak. Since the reports of the IMF standby deal, PKR gained Rs.8.50 to U$ in past few sessions. Will boost import parity. 

Australia desi chickpea exports up by 280%; Pakistan, Nepal & UAE were top buyers in May as per ABS.  

No export parity at the moment in China’s market for Australia’s sorghum. As we heard trade reported for CFR Qingdao – U$ 325 pmt last week bulk in containers. 

AUD/USD jumped 1.5% overnight on account of USD weakness, as a result of lower-than-expected US CPI data for June 23. This may limit further fed rate hikes. 

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Pulses, Grains & Oilseeds 

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Grain, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/07/2023) 

In Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark) we are observing thin trade demand coming from India.  Recent trade reported of Nipper – CFR Birgunj (Nepal) at 685 levels in containers.  

Sight of relief to Pakistan, IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR 2,250 million (about $3 billion or 111 percent of Pakistan’s IMF quota). Heard offers for CHKM at 510-15 levels CFR Karachi in containers, though low demand in local Pakistan market and Karachi port arrivals of peas picking up.     

Reserve Bank of Australia hold interest rate 4.1% in June to tackle inflation in country. AUD/USD rangebound 0.66c to 0.67c. 

As per FAS USDA forecasted, Australia wheat production 29 Mt in 2023/24 (-10.7 Mt compared to last year). Export will drop to 21 Mt than last year 31 Mt. Barley production forecasted to 10 Mt in 2023/24 compared to last year 14 Mt & exports will up by 5.5 Mt due to China’s tariff review & uncertainly of Ukraine exports. 

Despite of upheaval with Ukraine, Russia recorded 45 MMT export of wheat or 51% higher than last season 2022-23. Presently, Russia wheat is ruling the market with cheap pricing across the destinations.   

Australian wheat followed somewhat the sharp falls seen on US wheat futures because of positive crop conditions. New crop APW multi bids down $20 -$30 pmt ; old crop $10 -$20 pmt   various port zones, but with little selling interest from growers, market remains illiquid. 

In Russian & EU harvesting of wheat is begun, with other grains & oilseed begin to harvest in next months. The major challenge for EU wheat exporters is the dominance of cheaper Russia wheat in the market. Might they have to target Morocco & China for larger export sales. 

Black Sea vs Australian barley spread to Middle East markets at U$50 pmt currently and thus remains uncompetitive while Australia still waits for China barley markets to open. 

Lack of export demand on barley with new crop bids $10-30 pmt down and old crop seeing $10-$15 drop in bids. 

Sorghum markets continued to be subdued with harvest largely completed in SE QLD and NNSW and partial remaining in CQ. Reportedly traded in containers to Qingdao at USD 322 pmt with thin interest. 

As per EU commission, EU rapeseed production forecast of 600Kt to 19MMT proved to be bullish factor for Australian canola seeds  

Production cuts to US soybean and EU rapeseed caused a brief run on the bourses but given a heavy northern hemisphere supply side on oilseed and bearish demand, little upside potential. Ukraine rapeseed reported trade into ISC at USD 500 pmt levels in containers 

As per USDA WASDE, Global rapeseed production remains unchanged this month at 87 Mt. Overall consumption forecasted 85 Mt, with marginal rise of 2%(y-o-y) for EU to 25.4 Mt. Overall export dip by 2% this month to 17.7 Mt due to fall in Australian exports. With decline in production, Ukraine & Australia exports are expected to drop by 15% & 38% respectively. 

As per BOM withholding officially declaring EL Nino yet saying “sustained changes in wind, cloud and broadscale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observed”. 

“This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Nino events.” The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October,” 

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Pulses, Grains & Oilseeds 

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Grains Market Update (28/06/2023)

Black Sea wheat continues to be cheapest source, keeping a lid on Australian exports and values

Black sea grain corridor expiring 18th July 23, less compulsion to renewal by Russia may lead to impact on grain markets. 33 mmt appx. exported via the grain corridor, may need to find alternate routes via river/rail/road options.

US weather markets in play on the boards. Better prospects of rain over the US Midwest now factored in however US wheat still at significant premium to Black Sea and may need to discount further.

Australian domestic wheat market observes strong demands for SFW from QLD feed markets. Export demand remains flat with exporters focusing only on front month shipment coverages which are easily purchased without pushing values upwards.

India, might look for a wheat import. As the federation of millers of India, wheat production 2023/24 forecasted is 101-103 MMT against the earlier wheat production 2023/24 forecasted by by the MoA & FW 112.74 MMT last month. Government holding appx 8.7mmt of wheat for market interventions post PDS and buffer requirements and with stock limits in place may be able to hold off imports for now.

A significant rain band cutting across NT and crossing over east into QLD and NSW may bring welcome rainfall to dry northern plains of NSW this week and next. May allow for those dry areas from Moree to Walgett to be planted – most likely wheat and barley acres and to a lesser extent chickpeas.

Several good rainfalls in WA, SA & VIC in June seems to have alleviated any moisture stress on winter crops and growing recent demand for urea ahead of rain events indicate that growers in many areas with good rainfall totals may now have confidence on winter crop prospects. Would it be a moderate El Nino! BOM forecasts indicate IOD likely to be positive only by Aug,23 lending to drier conditions so spring dryness may have impact.

Growers showing little interest to sell new crop 2023-24 production, though uptick in new crop APW values upwards of A$410 port have seen some participation by growers having good soil moisture profiles.

This week containerized trade price advise from market sources :-

SE Asia – APW traded in mid U$ 320s

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Pulses & Canola Market Update (28/06/2023)

On a macro level crude oil under pressure as a result of global recessionary fears. Interest rates still in northward direction in higher for longer mode.

During India’s PM Modi’s recent trip to the United States, the two nations agreed, India will lift tariffs on eight US goods, including lentils and chickpeas, and the US will lift tariffs on India’s goods, steel and aluminum.

Tur shortage and limited scope of replenishment/import should continue to underpin lentil values in India. Uptick in demand during upcoming festive season may prove bullish on pulses in India. El Nino impact on Indian monsoon a threat still.

Expect a smaller desi chickpeas crop this year with 250,000 ha(ABARE) in QLD in good health, NNSW possibly tad lower than 170,000 ha (ABARE). Lentils planted in VIC (305,000 ha (ABARE) and SA (320,000 ha (ABARE)) are in good health and seems to be benefitting from recent rains.

Australia inflation rate has come in lower at 5.6 per cent in May from 6.8 per cent in April. RBA may pause its interest rate hikes.

Lower fertilizer prices this season thus lower cost of production and subject to production remaining above average, we may see pricing competitiveness in Australia new crop across the board.

Container freight ex Australia to Indian sub-continent now within the USD10-USD15 pmt premium to bulk making container flows more active. We expect to see more improvement in container freight in coming months.

Very thinly traded volumes & low demand from export destinations this week(as per market advisories received :-

CHK1 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 701 pmt

CHKM – CFR Karachi traded – U$ 525 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #1 – CFR Kolkata traded – U$ 670 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #2 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 658 pmt

Middle East – no demand/trades reported

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (21/06/2023) 

Global wheat market, dry weather condition in US crop region uplifted the international prices. However global prices still driven by ample supply of cheap Russian wheat. 

Australian domestic wheat market has uplifted prices for old & new crop due to weather conditions, strong demand for feed SFW1 is coming from north.   

India approved export of wheat to Nepal & broken rice to Indonesia, Senegal & Gamiba.   

Barley, Australian growers awaits from China to resolve the trade dispute in next two weeks & domestic market of malting barley has been quit. Export of feed barley fall by 27% & malting barley fall by 12% m-o-m basis in April; biggest volume buyers for Australian feed barley are Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Kuwait & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Singapore in April.   

Global Canola market experiencing bullish factor due to dry weather condition impacted on soyabean & corn crop in their development phase as per USDA. In domestic market Australian canola prices went up by $20-$40 pmt across both old & new crop. Australian Canola export drop by 46.26 % m-o-m basis & Germany, Japan & UAE were biggest volume buyers in April. Still Australian exporters not able to find market parity for canola seeds against Ukrainian rapeseed. 

Sorghum, China & Japan are the biggest volume buyers; Overall export up by 73% on m-o-m basis in April.  

No major demands coming for Australian red lentils from India; Pakistan continues to be volume buyer of Australia’s desi chickpeas.  

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 3 of the 4 criteria for development of EI Nino have been met; this year, there are more chances of warm weather event will occur. 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (14/06/2023)

Indian govt. announced a 10.35% hike in MSP for lentils, millet & paddy to support growers.  

India, Sri lanka & UAE were the top 3 volume consumers of Australian lentils in April. Export of lentils boosted by to 173% y-o-y basis & fall by 6% in m-o-m basis.  

In recent time, Pakistan has emerged as a volume buyer for Australian desi chickpeas. Export of desi chickpeas fall by 62.46% in April m-o-m basis.  

Australian exporters were unable to negotiate parity price for canola seed in Nepal, where it already faces fierce competition from Ukrainian rapeseeds. 

Today, Australian dollar is 0.6786 which is up by 3 cents that is limiting trade this week. 

Again, India has set a stock limit on wheat that will remain in effect until March 31, 2024, to control prices. May eventuate import requirements later part of this year. 

In April, China and Malaysia were the biggest buyers of Australian wheat in the containers followed Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, & Indonesia. Containerised wheat export decline by 28% m-o-m basis as per ABS. 

In bulk in vessel wheat business, again China is biggest volume consumers followed by Thailand & Indonesia in April. Export of wheat in bulk fall by 19.32 % m-o-m basis as per ABS 

Heavy rainfall in China’s Henan province during winter harvesting; impacting quality of new wheat crop 2023-24, earlier it was forecasted to 140 MMT as USDA report. 

Australian wheat continues to be more expensive on export parity basis to CIS origin. Domestic trade on wheat seems to now see very limited bids by domestic end users/exporters on back of recent rains in grain growing areas of SNSW/VIC/SA & Southern WA providing some optimism; demand in SE Asia for Australian wheat remains affected due to cheaper CIS grain availability.  

Slow harvest, low availability continues to push Sorghum pricing higher domestically; continued China export demand. 

Australian canola east coast port zones higher by about $15 to $30 this week on back of jump in European markets. However, pressure to remain on pricing given almost 2 mmt carryout expected. 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (07/06/2023)  

In India, the central government announced on June 2 to impose stock limit on tur & urad dal for wholesalers, retailers big retail chain, millers & importer to prevent stockpiling, control price inflation & speculations. It will be effective immediately until Oct 31,2023.  As per reports, under new order, wholesaler subject to a stock limit of 200 MT for each pulse, while retailer can hold up to 5 MT & Miller allowed to stock up to 3 months or 25% annual capacity. Importers cannot store pulses for more than 30 days.   

Current India’s pulses market is very quiet, heard trade offers for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) for CFR Kolkata – $670, CFR Nhava Sheva – $ 670 & CFR Tuticorin – $ 680 levels with limited buyer interest. 

Tur dal is short in India, as per the market experts India is waiting for the African Tur to available in the mkt. As per data shows that South Indian states have high consumption of Tur dal (Election year is near, so govt want to control price inflation by importing tur dal from the Africa & distributes at subsidised rates) 

No forthcoming demands coming from UAE, Nepal & Bangladesh for pulses yet. Heard that Nipper / Hallmark #1 trade offers at 665 levels in Bangladesh with limited buyer interests. 

In Nepal, no strong demand coming for Australian canola seed facing competition from Ukraine’s rapeseeds.  

Australia’s winter crop forecast decline by 34% to 44.9Mt in 2023-24. Due to the expectation of below-average winter and spring rainfall, yield prospects are anticipated to be below average.   

Barley, new crop forecast at 9.9Mt, decline 30% from 14.1Mt last year; On Wheat, new crop forecast at 26.2Mt, decline 34% from 39.2Mt last year; & Canola, staggering 41% dropped at 4.9Mt from current crop of 8.3Mt.  

As per Australian weather bureau, 70% chance this year of a El Nino weather & food producers across Asia are being threatened by the dry weather. Australia’s wheat, palm oil, and rice production in Southeast Asia are particularly at risk. 

Winter crop planting almost wrapping up in most Australia crop growing areas with some late planting expected on back of recent rains in NSW cropping areas. Eyes remain on weather with threat of El Nino at 70% as per Australia weather bureau. 

Australian wheat market continues to remain in flat mode as Black Sea origin continues to be offered at aggressive pricing to all destinations. 

Expectation of significant global supplies of wheat and continuing free flow of Black Sea wheat keeping lid on upside in pricing. 

Earlier USDA has projected that wheat projection for Australia new crop 29Mt in 2023-24; as per ABARES projection wheat new crop fall by 30% to 26.2Mt. 

China harvest rains on wheat crop may impact quality and quantity.  

Barley market, eyes on Chinese demand & on potential of tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. Mostly Australia domestic feed pricing in play at the moment. 

In Sorghum, Chinese demand will continue to be driving force. Most stock in SE Qld exhausted, Central Qld & Riverina harvesting and should cover Jul/Aug vessels, containers become uncompetitive. Prices increase on export shorts and slow harvest. 

Canola seed pricing remains under pressure on back of ample global supply, a surplus of veg oil stock and large expected carryout of rapeseed in Europe. Australian canola seed production to lower to 4.9 mmt vs 8.2mmt (22/23); 41% drop 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (31/05/2023)   

In India, minimal trade movement for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1), been advised last week traded for CFR Kolkata – USD 685 pmt levels in bulk in containers. Ongoing strength in Tur has not led to any significant uptick in import demand yet. With strict government directives on stock holding, traders are unwilling to resort to any large volume imports thus keeping business to continue to tick over at sideway pricing values. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 685pmt; CFR Nhava Seva – USD 680pmt; CFR Birganj (Nepal) – USD 725pmt 

Australian Chickpeas is more focused towards just Pakistan market, no demand seen any other destination. Traders attending GPC at Sydney got their share of excitement this week with mkt grapevine suggesting appx. 8-10k mt traded in containers of both 25% def (CFR Karachi – USD 505pmt) and 15% def (CFR Karachi – USD 520 pmt), though we are led to believe that this volume took out the local trader long stocks. Significant currency risk factor for Pak still keeps Australian seller risk appetite in check. Our indication for CFR Karachi – July/Aug – Bulk in container – CHK1 – USD 560; CHKM (15% def) – USD 525; CHKM (25% def) – USD 505; Nipper/Hallmark#1 – USD 695 pmt.       

Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no forthcoming demand for pulses yet.  

Global markets on oilseed complex continue to slide. Australian Canola seed market in Nepal facing competition from Ukranian rapeseed due to aggressive price offers. Our Indication for GM Canola min 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 620 pmt. We haven’t seen any firm queries in last 1 week. 

AUD/USD 0.65 at 6-month low which is supportive for Aussie exports, however falling demand against expected significant northern hemisphere crops and global macro fears keeping a lid on export volumes across grains and pulses. 

On new crop estimates, whilst planting hectares will be similar across all pulse’s crops, however expected yields are estimated lower by various agencies with PIRSA in SA expecting lentils to harvest about 1.73 mt/ha in 23/24 crop vs 2.75 mt/ha in 22/23 crop. (191,600 ha yielding 527,250 mt in 22/23 vs expected 201,400 ha yielding 348,800 mt). We expect this trend to be similar across all Australian states due to threat of El Nino which may threaten our crop prospects this spring. 

Global wheat market found support due to the resurgence of uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian export corridor & dry weather in US settling into corn and soybean-growing regions. Despite of unchanged dry weather condition still US struggling to compete with Russia who is holding large stocks of cheap wheat. In order regain importer’s attention, lack of demand is causing US wheat price dip below corn.   

Australian growers have been busy crop planting, we see slowdown in export interests. We anticipated firm demand of Wheat from Asia countries but facing competition from cheap Russian wheat. We don’t see any meaningful support for Australian wheat prices in the short term due to the sufficient global wheat supply, cheap and plentiful Russian wheat, and worse economic conditions. 

In Barely market, Australian growers clearly sees that Chinese demand and prospects for new crops are the two clear opportunities. We are keeping an eye on the Chinese tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. New potential upside should new crop prospects suffer due to drier conditions. Due to the threat of El Nino the new crop bids aren’t yet at the point where they would create interest.  

In Sorghum, Australian grower anticipating that Chinese demand is still the dominant factor with the weaker Australian dollar supports prices. 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update  (24/05/2023)

In India, Australian Red Lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) traded at USD 680 pmt levels for CFR Kolkata bulk in containers, sales are trying to be pushed but buyers are unwilling to increase bids. Heard USD 660 pmt levels traded for Nipper/Hallmark#1 CFR Nhava Sheva however with freight differential usually limited to between USD 5-6 pmt between Kolkata and Nhava Sheva, we do not believe there to be many sellers selling steep discounted values into Nhava Sheva. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 692 pmt. 

 In Pakistan, the demand for Australian pulses is waning after a few weeks of aggressive buying. Politico-economic/currency risks keeping most regular Australian sellers restricted for container business for Pak. Small amounts of CHKM containers continue at USD 540 CFR Karachi levels. Our Indications for CFR Karachi – CHK1 – USD 570 pmt; CHKM – USD 540 pmt; KCP 7/8 – USD 970 pmt; Nipper/Hallmark #1 – USD 695 pmt  

Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no imminent demand for pulses. In Bangladesh, last week heard trade offers for GM Canola min. 44% bulk in containers around USD 645 levels.  

The Nepal pulse market has slowed down for a while. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark#1 – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 725 pmt; CHK1 – USD 600 pmt.  

 Canola seed continues to be quiet for Nepal buyers mainly due to aggressive offers on Ukraine rapeseed where new crop harvest is just 1 month away, hence urgency on emptying storages. Our price indication for GM Canola min. 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 640 pmt. 

Container freight ex Australia continues to correct month on month as carriers struggle with filling their vessels with cargo. However, we have noticed major carrier’s reluctance to significantly reduce freight rates to the Indian sub-continent majorly due to  

a) Equipment availability issues in Australia due to low import volumes and  

b) Limited own vessel carriers into ISC reducing competition. 

The announcement of a 60-days extension to the Black Sea grain corridor agreement led to pressurization in global wheat prices & corn followed it for the same reasons. Adding further US corn price in pressure due to the cancellation of 272,000 mt of 22/23 corn to China.  

However, Australian growers had couple of good, seasons & so they are not in urgency to sell what they’re holding, particularly with the chances of an El Nino event increasing price in old & new crop.  

Barley prices have fallen along with wheat & corn, but Australian growers are still hoping for support may come later in the year on the back of China’s tariff review. New crop production is looking shaky because of drier conditions caused by a developing El Nino & hoping to get price support in upcoming months.   

Drier than normal conditions are expected to continue until late May. The dry weather continues to hinder planting progress, with planting rates across Eastern Australia spread between 50-70%. VIC is now 70%+ complete, whilst NSW and SA are lower, around 50%. Grower feedback has been that almost everyone is looking for at least 5-10mm to get crops started.   

Sorghum is currently in low demand in China; trade is offering it for USD 340 levels CFR Tianjin for bulk in containers, but there are no bids.  

No major demand from SEA wheat millers; they have enough wheat on hand to last until July 23. Australian wheat in containers quoted for July/Aug shipments period – ASW-USD 322 pmt ; APW- USD 327 pmt.  

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