The global wheat markets seem to be stabilizing, this week, CBOT wheat futures saw an additional 2% increase due to Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. While the Australian dollar has experienced some depreciation & majorities of Australian exporters are observing from sideline as Russian & Ukraine wheat is dominating SEA markets. As we learned APW quoted at U$285/mt & APH2 at U$350/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports. ASW1 demand for China in containers at U$260/mt CNF major China port.
The estimated global wheat production for the 2023/24 season has been increased by 1.5MMT to 789.5 MMT, reflecting higher projections for Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan. The IGC’s initial forecast for the 2024/25 season anticipates a rise in wheat production to 798.8MMT and an increase in carryover stocks by 2.5MMT
Demand for Australia’s sorghum is strong in China, trading at U$286/mt to CNF Tianjin in containers for May/June/July. There was some small bulk vessel Sorghum demand from China earlier this week which seems to be the first we have seen in quite a few weeks and as harvest picks up post Easter, we expect there will be a few boats traded. For now, Sorghum continues to see container demand in China at U$280 – U$290/mt levels CNF major China ports. This week, interest in Australian GMB has slowed due to a lack of demand and on account of collapsing prices for Myanmar origin mungs, prices were quoted at U$920/mt to CNF Qingdao with limited buying interest. Additionally, a limited quantity of Kaspa pea cargoes were traded to CNF Tianjin at U$415/mt in containers this week. We are also hearing trade offers for Australian barley at U$250-255/mt to CNF China major ports in containers.
The Pakistani market has experienced a slowdown in the past two weeks for Australian lentils and Desi chickpeas due to Ramadan. We are hearing a few trades NIP1/HAL1 at U$685/mt for CFR Karachi for May/June or June/July shipment.
With the domestic crop harvest in progress, the market demand for Australian red lentils in India is currently slow. As we are hearing trade offers of NIP1/HAL1 at U$695-700/mt levels to CNF Kolkata. minimal trade demand for Faba beans, hearing trade offers at U$465/mt to CNF Kolkata.
There has been no significant movement in the markets for Desi chickpeas, Canola, or Australian lentils in Nepal. Some trades reported of GM Canola at U$575/mt levels; NIP1/HAL1 at U$720/mt; & CHK1 at U$705/mt to CFR Birgunj.
Egypt demand has slowed down a bit for Faba beans, lupins & lentils as their struggle continues against FX. Indications CNF Damietta seen – Faba U$510/mt.
Australia local containers markets – We have seen small trades of chickpeas, most likely coverings on earlier trades into UAE and Bangladesh – nothing of significant volumes: DCT quotes Bris/Syd CHK1 22/23 – A$880/mt; 23/24 – A$980/mt; CHK1 24/25 (Nov/Dec) – A$970/mt; Lentils (NIP/HAL) – DCT quotes Mel: A$960/mt; Kabuli quotes Mel: A$1150/mt – very limited demand.
Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only
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