Global wheat production for 23/24 remained unchanged at 784MMT, over a 19MMT drop compared to 22/23 production due to decreasing Russian production as per IGC.
In Australia, before the arrival of the new crop, growers are concentrating on selling their old crop and clearing up their warehouse stock. Local wheat market trade demand remains strong for SFW & H2. New crop wheat port pricing has seen a jump last 2 weeks of between A$10-A$20 pmt, however grower selling subdued due to limited rain and increasing concerns on crop yields as a result.
As per PIRSA, South Australian crop production is estimated for wheat 5.08Mt, barley 2.17Mt, & canola 472K. Overall grain production 23/24 crop projected 8.8 MT compared to last year 12.8MT. Growers in the state remain concerned about the forecasted rainfall for late winter and early spring.
In Australia, in local market the price of lentil old & new crop was significantly higher last week due to seemingly tight global snd due to dryness concerns in Canada and India, with destination interest now significant. Demand continues with old crop price up by A$70 pmt & new crop price up by A$80 pmt.
In India, there is significant demand for Australia’s red lentils, we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at high U$755 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata (bulk in containers) for Oct/Nov shipments period & good number of enquiries from all the locations. As Indian market for lentil is up by U$80 pmt over past two weeks & as we heard old stocks are getting liquidated at U$720 pmt levels. Bangladesh demand is limited at this stage for red lentils although they will need to participate for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments when their available stocks start running low.
In Bangladesh, we are observing strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas, as we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for CHK1 at U$545-550 pmt levels, however limited trades heard as not many traders willing to sell at these levels without selling support from origin. Local Australian markets have increased grower bids however with limited selling interest in both old and new crop. Desi chickpeas demand in Pakistan remains subdued, last trades heard CFR Karachi at U$535 pmt (bulk in containers).
In China, trade demand for sorghum & barley is still very slow at the moment. We heard trade offers for Barley U$ 280 pmt levels & Sorghum at U$340 pmt levels.
On crop progress in Australia – Queensland remains dry with no forecast rain for next week. Low soil moisture levels may now start to impact grain production. Early harvest expected this year with Central Queensland expected to start harvesting mid Sep onwards with South Queensland expected to commence harvesting mid- Oct onwards. Northern NSW remains dry with now concerns of low production on planted crops, South NSW looks in good shape with recent rains and growers have applied fertilizer to crops to boost yields. Victoria is another state where all crops are in good to excellent state with continuing in crop rainfall boosting crop prospects. South Australian crops have been holding up well with some concerns on recent frost damage. In WA, GIWA has expressed concerns on dryness now impacting crop yields to the tune of 1mmt.
Disclaimer : Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only.
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