Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (09/02/2024)

Global wheat market is bearish, as market experts are anticipating rise in demand post Chinese New Year as China being key buyer. Australian wheat remains quiet due to lack of export demand from offshore market.

Very small demand from SEA millers for Australian wheat, as we heard APW1 being quoted at U$305/mt levels; APH2 being quoted at U$360/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports.

Export of wheat containerized increased by 11% in Dec,23 (134,782 MT) compared to previous month Nov23(121,487 MT); major buyers are Thailand, Vietnam & China. Export of bulk in wheat increased by 26% in Dec,23 (1,267,514 MT) compared to Nov,23 (1,007,848 MT); Top importers are China, Philippines & Indonesia in December as per ABS.

Australian desi chickpeas demand remains slow as no participation from Nepal, UAE, Pakistan & Bangladesh already covered Ramadhan demand in December. Small pocket size demand from Bangladesh at about U$685/mt CFR Chittagong levels.

Export of chickpeas increased by 189% in Dec,23 (94,763MT) compared to Nov,23 (32,697MT); most bulk shipments only executing. Main buyer is Bangladesh in December as per ABS.

We observe a strong demand for Australian red sorghum as China’s new holidays get near, and we have heard that sorghum is trading for between U$295-U$305/mt to CNF China major ports. Australian mung beans are trading in containers to CFR Qingdao at U$950-955/mt levels.

Kaspa peas no significant trade demand against cheaper Russian yellow peas at U$380/mt to CNF China major ports; Australian barley not competitive against Russian barley at U$240-245/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Exports of Lentils increased by 99% in Dec,23 (237,345 MT) compared to Nov,23 (119,134 MT); Top importers are India & Bangladesh in December as per ABS. Onoing demand from India at sub/par U$700–U$710/mt to CFR Kolkata/NS all the way upto June,24 shipment period. Limited volume trades in containers as margins have eroded for traders and significant grower selling resistance below these levels. India’s Rabi crop outlook is key factor in determining price direction and demand on lentils in the coming months. Extended period of cold weather and sudden change of temperature in crucial Feb/Mar period may have an impact on yield – remains to be seen.

The Pakistani domestic desi chickpea crop is gaining attention as it could potentially determine the new direction and price in the market. Currently no demand forthcoming and with elections counting underway we expect market to be quiet for atleast next 1 month till a stable government is sworn in with new direction and cues to trade.

We are observing minimal trade activity in Australain lentils into Pakistan & heard trade offers for CHKM at U$620/mt levels & NIP1/HAL1 at U$715/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, observing trade activity in Kaspa peas, which trading at U$445/mt levels to CFR Chittagong. As we heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$695/mt levels and CHK1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers for prompt shipments.

Presently, there is no significant demand in Nepal for Australian lentils, CHK1, or canola, but buyers are bidding at lower prices for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725-U$730/mt levels; CHK1 at U$650/mt levels; canola at U$570/mt levels – all CFR Birgunj which are not viable as Australian replacement cost is higher.

Containerised exports of pulses and grains remain subdued in Q1 on account lower demand from destinations who have remained well fed by northern hemisphere origins as growers in Australia continue to dribble out only small quantities of all grains and pulses and there is significant resistance to selling below target values. Pulses export volumes continue to be driven by bulk vessel exports of lentils, chickpeas and faba beans to Indian sub-continent and Middle East markets.

We are attending GPC Pulses 24 conference in New Delhi from 14th Feb 24 to 17th Feb 24 and subsequently also attending Gulfood event at Dubai from 19th Feb 24 to 23rd Feb 24, please feel free to reach out to us for a catch up/discussion or just to say hello if you are attending any of these events.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (26/01/2024)

Australian wheat market prices remain unchanged last week due to slow demand from offshore destinations. Markets mostly trading sideways with now new upside factors yet. Weather impacts to northern hemisphere wheat Feb onwards would be the next drivers of volatility – remains to be seen. SEA millers are also generating very limited demand in the region, with APW1 being quoted at U$300/mt levels for major SEA ports in containers. Heard bulk APW offers at U$295 CNF SEA ports; ASW high U$270’s CNF SEA ports.

Australian barley facing fierce competition from Black Sea & Argentina in China market. Hearing Russian barley being quoted between U$230-245/mt levels to CNF major China ports & Australian barley quoted at U$275/mt levels in containers. Bulk Australian barley flows continue into China is at regular pace with appx. 3 mmt exported since restrictions were lifted.

Negligible demand for Kaspa peas in China with their YP stock at ports in excess of 300k mt and slow local markets. Any new price direction now to be post Chinese New Year holidays(09Feb24 to 18Feb24). Australian red sorghum trade offers at U$310-315/mt in containers against cheaper USA sorghum offers at U$295/mt to CNF major China ports with limited buying interest. New crop Australian mungbeans have also continued to trade at around U$950/mt levels CNF Qingdao. Australian summer crop Sorghum & mungbeans are currently expected to be doing well on back of ample moisture due to recent rain events in eastern Australia. Sorghum harvest expected by trade at this stage to be closer/over 2mmt – ABARE numbers yet awaited). Harvest will be well spread out with Central Queensland planting the crop in Jan, harvest likely May/June/July, early southern crops starting to harvest now. Mungbeans with weather permitting may be a 100kmt crop although numbers not yet out and traders keeping fingers crossed.

Demand for Australian red lentils in India is pretty much flat, with no major trading activity reported last week. We heard trade offers of NIP1/HAL1 at U$710-715/mt levels & also heard from the market sources that NIP1/HAL1 traded at U$705/mt in containers (April/May) shipment. As India’s Rabi crop starts to mature Feb onwards, we may see some direction with hopes YP/lentils will continue to be imported to fill in any Rabi crop shortfalls.

In Nepal, no major trade activity in Australian red lentils & Desi chickpeas, while limited quantity of Australian canola min.44% traded at U$585-590/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Heard small demand for Australian Lentils at $730 – $740/mt and Desi’s at $640/mt CNF Birgunj – not viable basis Australia replacement cost.

The current market in Pakistan is bearish on the pulses complex; CHKM is being quoted at U$615/mt and NIP1/HAL1 lentils at U$715/mt levels in containers. As heard from market sources that limited CHKM trades were reported between at U$590-595/mt levels in containers.

Australian red lentils are not gaining significant attention in Bangladesh. Enquiries for Canola and Kaspa peas at U$560-565/mt and U$460-470/mt levels respectively CNF Chittagong. CHK1 trade reported below U$695/mt levels to CNF Chittagong in container. 5 Chickpeas vessels(150kmt) on track ex Australia for Bangladesh arrival in Q1, 2024.

In Egypt, we are observing limited trade activity in Faba beans, which is trading over $485/mt (fiesta type)& Warda type over U$465/mt to CFR Damietta in containers last week. Red Sea surcharges affecting trade flows to Egypt although demand remains consistent.

On 2024 cropping, Australia should be on track to produce a major crop in winter 2024 thanks to the summer rains across all eastern Australia cropping areas filling up the deficits on soil moisture profiles. According to some analysts 2024 winter crop could be on track to produce in excess of 31mmt wheat; 13mmt barley; 6mt canola weather permitting.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/12/2023)

Global wheat market has been bullish due to spike in Chinese business of US wheat, they covered roughly 660,000 tons recently. Australian wheat markets have seen a boost due to the bullish strength on the boards. However, demand still lackluster and with expected slow export pace from CIS, there should be uptick in demand for Aus’s wheat in Q1.

As per ABARES, projection estimate lifted in December winter crop report on Wheat 25.5MT, Barley 11.1MT, Canola 5.5MT, Lentils 13.93MT, Chickpeas 528KT, Faba Beans 484KT, Field peas 238KT, & Lupins 524KT.

Grower selling on wheat has been generally slow this harvest with lower demand for export and lower grower engagement, however recent weather events in SA & VIC have protein spreads increase due to majority of wheat being harvested falling into ASW/APW range.

In chickpeas, demand for new crop Australian chickpeas is currently at a standstill, with little demand from any destination. No price parity into Pakistan, Bangladesh with limited interest and Nepal completely absent from trade.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian Kaspa Peas although with significant jump to Canadian YP due to India relaxing import restrictions, we hope to see some market reaction from China. We are observing demand for Sorghum (old crop) which trading at U$ 350/mt levels to CNF China major ports & no firm interest coming for Sorghum (new crop) as we heard trade offers at U$330/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers for March/April shipments. On Australian barley facing competition with Argentina & Russian barley, we heard trade offers for Australian barley at U$270/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.

In Pakistan, observing minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils, as we heard NIP1/HAL1 trade offers at U$730/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Jan/Feb/March shipments. Some business earlier this week reported at U$720-725 levels CFR Karachi.

In India, no firm demand coming for Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at U$720/mt levels to Kolkata in containers. We observed some small activity’s in faba beans over last week, which is trading at U$440/mt levels to Kolkata in containers.

Recently, India removed import duty on yellow peas to nil from 50% & allows import till 31st March 2024. More on next market report on market reactions and demand. Currently buyers and sellers are scoping trade direction and price discovery underway.

In Nepal, no major trade acitivity happening at the moment for lentils, desi chickpeas & canola seeds

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/11/2023)

Global wheat markets are hampered by the large export capacity of Black Sea grain producers, which results in a surge of cheap Russian/Ukrainian wheat shipments.

Australian wheat markets are experiencing lower prices due to harvest pressure and a stronger Australian dollar. Limited containerized export sales to SE Asia with pricing being quote APW USD 305 to USD 310 pmt – CFR major SEA ports & APH2 being quoted sub-USD 380’s pmt vs competing CWRS in bulk cheaper under USD 350’s into SEA.

In Desi chickpeas, sluggish demand for new crop coming from offshore market. Containerized business demand is limited for all destinations and no strong inclination of Australian sellers to sell at lower values. Keeps the market illiquid.

In lentils, VIC & SA lentils price roses due to market shorts to fill in early packing slots, despite of rise in Australian dollar since last week. VIC harvest deliveries have started.

In India, we are observing not much trade demand for Australia red lentils from the market. We heard trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 to USD 725 levels in containers with no buying interest. Limited trades reported last 2 weeks between USD 715 to USD 720 pmt mark.

In Pakistan, observing minimal demands for Australian lentils. As we heard the Nipper/Hallmark#1 trade offers USD 725/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we are getting enquiries for canola min.42% & also we heard that GM canola min.42% traded at USD 545/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers.

In Nepal, no major demands for Australia lentils & desi chickpeas. While in canola we see couple of inquiries last week with limited buyer interest. Buyers seeking values of USD 580+/- CFR Birganj with limited trades reported last week, Australia market remains strong with ongoing VIC canola seed harvest values not allowing any trade margins at these CFR values.

In Egypt, sluggish demand for Faba beans & lentils since last 3 weeks. We heard that Faba beans trade offers at USD 425/mt to CFR Damietta, though limited selling interest at these values and currency availability continuing issue with this destination.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (10/11/2023)

The market expects wheat world ending stocks to be somewhat lower for the 2023/24 season due to dry seasonal circumstances in Australia and Argentina. Russian production is likely to climb from 85 million mt to 93 million mt, as the Russian government has revised its projection as per USDA.

In Wheat, Australian wheat markets this week have been experiencing lower bids ranging from A$5 to A$10 per tonne on soft wheats compared to last week due to harvest progress. Exporters are actively chasing APH where spreads have increased to more than A$120 pmt to APW and A$100 pmt to AH2 in some procurement arcs. QLD harvest is nearly complete and NNSW should finish in 1-2weeks, central and southern NSW harvest deliveries will continue to maintain pressure on pricing and we expect pricing to fall away another A$10-A$15 on account of harvest pressure in southern NSW and VIC. China supposedly continues its purchasing of APW wheat at/sub U$300 CFR in bulk. SEA containers offered indicatively APW – U$300-U$305+/- main ports; APH2 – U$380+/- main ports.

In Chickpeas, harvest seems complete in QLD/NNSW, demand remains weak for Australian desi chickpeas, only Bangladesh is a limited volume buyer as UAE, Pakistan & Nepal buyers are not participating due to premium prices . New crop CHK1 (23/24) indications CFR Karachi/Chittagong – USD 670 pmt.

In Pakistan, demand for Australian red lentils was firmer this week due to anticipated lack of availability of stock for Ramadan & buyers were actively participating. We heard Nipper/Hallmark#1 traded at U$720/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Dec/Jan shipments. As local market is upside & also USD/PKR is supporting.

In India, minimal demand & buyers showing limited interest for Australian red lentils at the moment as we learned govt. bodies continue to tender and purchase is doing procurements to commerce domestic market due low production & election year on cards. We heard trade offers yesterday for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$725/mt levels to Kolkata in containers, some limited trades also reported U$700/mt for last week.

In Bangladesh, no major movements at the movement since last week trade of desi chickpeas no.1 at U$650/mt levels & also Kyabra is offering at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. We see no major upside or significant demand levels and market continues to trade sideways on limited volumes.

In Nepal, no such major movement in Australian desi chickpeas & red lentils as buyers are willing to wait due to premium rates. CHK1(23/24) bid/offer spread at U$45 pmt CFR Birgunj; Australia canola seed still no demand as still at +U$50 pmt disparity to cheaper origins.

In Egypt, market has slowed down a bit on lentils, fabas and lupins as we heard trade offers that FABA Beans are offering below at U$420/mt & Nipper/Hallmark#1 at below U$720/mt in containers.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian pulses in containers. KASPA Peas no demand. We heard Russian yellow peas offering at U$330/mt at CFR China ports with lack of buying interest. In Barley, buyers getting offers at U$270/mt levels to CFR China major port. Sorghum sees limited demand.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/11/2023)

Over the last week, the global market wheat market remains unchanged.

Australian wheat local market prices remain unchanged, however in some regions where harvest is near about to finish, selling pressure is visible. In QLD prices are about A$5/mt less than week ago; WA harvest has picked up with reduction in price about A$10/mt, while Northern NSW harvest on full swing experienced lower price about A$15/mt; SA, Victoria & Southern NSW will be in peak harvest in 2-3 weeks. With harvest in Victoria commencing, wheat is now generally looking workable in containers to SE Asia although buyers also keeping a watch on harvest pressure to engage in coverage for 1st quarter of 2024.

On Barley, prices remain sluggish. China is allegedly purchasing more feed barley, and quality for this harvest is generally good with more Malt grade. This is causing feed/malt premiums to reduce.

Desi chickpeas harvest in NSW is on in full swing with bids from buyers remaining strong to upcountry packing sites. Destinations such as Pakistan, Nepal & UAE remain out for new crop due to significant spreads on old crop 1’s & CHKM vs new crop CHK1. At the moment only Bangladesh remains serious buyer for new crop CHK1 but with limited opportunities to trade them given the currency payment issues.

Lentils demand remains constant although pricing has been impacted by sluggish demand in India and harvest selling pressure in SA. Quality is generally anticipated to be good for this harvest in contrast to last year’s crop with significant quality issues. Victoria will harvest in 2-3 weeks with most packing sites now committed for Dec period and shipping window now spreading to Jan/Feb. Bulk shippers also gearing up with expected 5-6 vessels to be loaded 1st qtr 2024.

In Bangladesh, we are noticing trade some movements for desi chickpeas & buyers are actively participating in cover the stock before Ramadan 2024. We heard for CHK1 traded at U$650 to U$670/mt levels CFR Chittagong in containers (Nov/Dec) & also we heard trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$710-U$720/mt levels CFR Chittagong; for Kyabra desi we heard trade offers at U$690/mt levels CFR Chittagong for Nov/Dec in containers.

In China, no major demand for Kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas trade offers at U$330/mt levels CFR major China ports in containers. Australian sorghum demand losing ground at U$360/mt levels against cheaper US Sorghum trade offers at U$320/mt levels (all prices CFR major China ports). As we learned that domestic sorghum prices are more competitive & that hits imported sorghum very hard his year; For Australian barley, we heard trade offers at U$270/mt levels (CFR major China ports) with limited buying interest. Container demand in China generally remains sluggish.

In India, minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard the trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 – U$705-U$710/mt CFR Kolkata in containers with no buying interest.

In Pakistan, lack of trade demand for desi chickpeas & nipper/hallmark#1. We heard trade offers CHKM old crop at U$545/mt levels CFR Karachi & Also we heard Nipper/Hallamark#1 trade offers at U$710/mt CFR Karachi. Local domestic Karachi market price for CHKM at U$505/mt levels & CHK1 at U$525/mt levels; For Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at 690/mt levels in bulk in vessel CFR Karachi.

In Nepal, no major movement in the market for desi chickpeas, Canola & Nipper/hallmark#1. Lack of demand at current values.

Export of lentils increased by 37% & India remains top destination followed by UAE, Egypt & Bangladesh in September as per ABS.

Exports of Desi Chickpeas fell by 19.5% & Pakistan remains major sales destination followed by UAE & Nepal in September as per ABS.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (27/10/2023)

The global wheat crop estimates for 2023–24 was reduced by 2 MMT to 785 MMT as per International Grains Council (IGC) which is 18 MMT lower than crop produced in the previous season.

The global wheat market has been bearish over the last week because to Black Sea competition. Russia agreed to export 70 million tons of grains, legumes, and oilseeds to China over a 12-year period. SEA wheat buyers now looking for coverage for Jan 24 to Mar 24 period with price expectations on APW at below U$300/mt CFR major SEA ports in containers. With harvest currently ongoing we are observing limited high protein wheat with majority of crop expected to fall in ASW/APW category.

In desi chickpeas, harvest deliveries in full swing in QLD/NSW but we don’t see any firm demand at the moment for new crop of Australian desi chickpeas as we learned Pakistan already had sufficient stock as of now, Nepal & UAE not keen to buy at premium price. Bangladesh slowly covering container demand for Ramadan 2024 requirements, with ongoing shipments allowing pricing to hold up for now. Market indications are U$640 to 650/mt levels CFR Chittagong.

In China, market is sluggish at the moment for Australian sorghum & as we heard trade offers at U$360/mt levels in containers with limited interest from buyer. In Australian barley, we heard trade offers at around U$270’s levels with lack of bids from buyer as Russian barley has been traded U$238/mt levels in containers. Lastly, we are observing that no China trade demand for Australian Kaspa Peas at the moment.

In India, we are observing no major trade activities for Australian red lentils since last week due to ongoing festival season & also we learned that buyers are willing to wait to get prices to soften up. We heard trade offer for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$730/mt levels for Kolkata in containers.

In Pakistan, after emerging as top volume buyer for Australian CHKM, demand has slowed down due to sufficient stock availability. We heard trade offers for old crop CHKM at U$525-535/mt levels & local market prices for CHKM at U$500/mt levels.

In Nepal, no trade activities due to going on festival season. As we head trade offers for CHK1 at U$670/mt levels to Birgunj in containers & also heard the Ukraine rapeseed traded at U$535/mt levels in Nov/Dec shipment in containers

In Egypt, we are noticing consistent enquiries for Faba beans. We heard trade offers at CFR Damietta at U$440/mt. With Victoria harvest delayed, earlier shipment requirements are being filled from QLD/NSW.

AUD/USD in range of 0.63/0.64 which is assisting export business.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (29/09/2023)

Global wheat prices were mostly under pressure last week, due to competition from Russia, low US wheat & a strengthening US dollar. The International Grain Council (IGC) reduced its projection for world wheat production by 1mm to from last month projection to 783 mmt. Australian wheat market remains stable during last week.

The last week has seen no change in the price of barley as Australia prepares for harvest. Since early August, new crop prices have increased by A$40 to A$80 per tonne due to lower production forecasts and resumption of Chinese demand.

In China, observing no firm demand for Kaspa Peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas & we are observing demand for barley at high U$280/mt levels as we learn that price is not workable for containerized business. For sorghum, we are observing price difference of U$10-15/mt against bids from the mkt.

In Pakistan, no major movement in the destination mkt & observing low demand for desi chickpeas. We heard CHKM quoted at U$600/mt to CFR Karachi in containers with limited buyer interest. As advise received from the market expert that in local market price of CHKM at U$500-505/mt levels.

In India, minimal sign of demand at the moment for Australian red lentils. We heard trade offers at high U$780/mt levels in containers. Again, India’s center extends the time period for stock limited for urad & tur to 31st Dec2023. Stock limit for wholesaler & big retailer reduced to 50MMT.

In Nepal, as of now relatively low demands for Australian canola seed & heard offers at high U$600/mt with limited buying interest. Also, we heard trade offers for Ukraine rapeseed at high U$560/mt. For desi chickpeas, heard trade offers at high U$615/mt levels & while Lentils trade offers at U$805/mt levels in containers.

The likelihood of this significant rainfall storm occurring next week is increasing, and the majority of models currently predict respectable totals (10–25mm) for central and southern NSW. Vic is in for 15 to 50 mm, with a few isolated spots displaying 50 to 100 mm. Eastern SA has 10-15mm on the radar, however the EP is only expecting less than 5mm, and WA is only expecting less than 5mm.

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Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (31/08/2023)

Global wheat market remains unchanged over last week. Northern hemisphere harvest coming to a close and ample stock availability and shipment from CIS makes buyers comfortable on current supplies. Australian local wheat prices are bit higher than last week as outlook is getting drier. Grower’s bids are increasing gradually as result.

In SEA region, Australian wheat prices are still unable to find export parity against cheaper Black Sea & EU wheat. As we heard trade offers for Black Sea & EU wheat at around U$290 pmt levels for 11.5% SEA destinations whilst Australian wheat is north of U$300 pmt.

China purchased in 600,000 MT of Australian BARLEY since tariffs has been removed. There is a strong demand for BARLEY but due to high local rates containerized business is not workable at the moment. We heard trade offers at U$280 levels in containers.

In China, we are observing very limited trade demand for SORGHUM. We heard trade offers at
U$340 levels in container

In India, the current scenario as we’re observing that El-Nino factor (below average Aug monsoon rains) already created upswings in pricing of various Pulses, rice, sugar, Wheat & vegetables in the domestic market. Supply fears are creeping in as a result of lower-than-average monsoons going into Rabi crop planting starting next month.

In India, firm trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) old crop 22/23 traded to CFR Kolkata at U$765 pmt levels & also Canadian Crimson new crop 23/24 traded at U$780 pmt levels to CFR Nhava Sheva in containers. Australian local prices for both old and new crop remain strongly bid in both Victoria and South Australia with some good selling interest from growers at these numbers. With Canadian crop numbers seemingly coming in lower, we could possibly see further pricing upside should crop planting on Tur and lentils falter as a result of lower-than-average monsoons and resultant lower planting soil moisture.

In Pakistan, we heard CHKM quoted/traded to CFR Karachi at U$550 -545 pmt levels in containers for Oct/Nov Shipment period & heard trade offer for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) at U$750 pmt levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for desi chickpeas since last week, we heard trade offers for CHKM for old crop 22/23 at U$610 pmt levels.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS due to cheaper availability of Russian yellow peas at U$350 pmt levels in containers.

As per BOM Australia, El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. Cropping areas across Australia increasingly loosing sub-soil moisture and most areas require between 15-25 mm of rain in the next 2 weeks to sustain currently anticipated production numbers. Harvest setting in early in Central Queensland where harvest should start in the next week; south Queensland should start harvesting early Oct. We are generally expecting this year to be an early harvest on account of warmer than usual climate in Aug.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/08/2023)

Global wheat production for 23/24 remained unchanged at 784MMT, over a 19MMT drop compared to 22/23 production due to decreasing Russian production as per IGC.

In Australia, before the arrival of the new crop, growers are concentrating on selling their old crop and clearing up their warehouse stock. Local wheat market trade demand remains strong for SFW & H2. New crop wheat port pricing has seen a jump last 2 weeks of between A$10-A$20 pmt, however grower selling subdued due to limited rain and increasing concerns on crop yields as a result.

As per PIRSA, South Australian crop production is estimated for wheat 5.08Mt, barley 2.17Mt, & canola 472K. Overall grain production 23/24 crop projected 8.8 MT compared to last year 12.8MT. Growers in the state remain concerned about the forecasted rainfall for late winter and early spring.

In Australia, in local market the price of lentil old & new crop was significantly higher last week due to seemingly tight global snd due to dryness concerns in Canada and India, with destination interest now significant. Demand continues with old crop price up by A$70 pmt & new crop price up by A$80 pmt.

In India, there is significant demand for Australia’s red lentils, we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at high U$755 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata (bulk in containers) for Oct/Nov shipments period & good number of enquiries from all the locations. As Indian market for lentil is up by U$80 pmt over past two weeks & as we heard old stocks are getting liquidated at U$720 pmt levels. Bangladesh demand is limited at this stage for red lentils although they will need to participate for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments when their available stocks start running low.

In Bangladesh, we are observing strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas, as we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for CHK1 at U$545-550 pmt levels, however limited trades heard as not many traders willing to sell at these levels without selling support from origin. Local Australian markets have increased grower bids however with limited selling interest in both old and new crop. Desi chickpeas demand in Pakistan remains subdued, last trades heard CFR Karachi at U$535 pmt (bulk in containers).

In China, trade demand for sorghum & barley is still very slow at the moment. We heard trade offers for Barley U$ 280 pmt levels & Sorghum at U$340 pmt levels.

On crop progress in Australia – Queensland remains dry with no forecast rain for next week. Low soil moisture levels may now start to impact grain production. Early harvest expected this year with Central Queensland expected to start harvesting mid Sep onwards with South Queensland expected to commence harvesting mid- Oct onwards. Northern NSW remains dry with now concerns of low production on planted crops, South NSW looks in good shape with recent rains and growers have applied fertilizer to crops to boost yields. Victoria is another state where all crops are in good to excellent state with continuing in crop rainfall boosting crop prospects. South Australian crops have been holding up well with some concerns on recent frost damage. In WA, GIWA has expressed concerns on dryness now impacting crop yields to the tune of 1mmt.

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