In India, minimal trade movement for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1), been advised last week traded for CFR Kolkata – USD 685 pmt levels in bulk in containers. Ongoing strength in Tur has not led to any significant uptick in import demand yet. With strict government directives on stock holding, traders are unwilling to resort to any large volume imports thus keeping business to continue to tick over at sideway pricing values. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 685pmt; CFR Nhava Seva – USD 680pmt; CFR Birganj (Nepal) – USD 725pmt
Australian Chickpeas is more focused towards just Pakistan market, no demand seen any other destination. Traders attending GPC at Sydney got their share of excitement this week with mkt grapevine suggesting appx. 8-10k mt traded in containers of both 25% def (CFR Karachi – USD 505pmt) and 15% def (CFR Karachi – USD 520 pmt), though we are led to believe that this volume took out the local trader long stocks. Significant currency risk factor for Pak still keeps Australian seller risk appetite in check. Our indication for CFR Karachi – July/Aug – Bulk in container – CHK1 – USD 560; CHKM (15% def) – USD 525; CHKM (25% def) – USD 505; Nipper/Hallmark#1 – USD 695 pmt.
Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no forthcoming demand for pulses yet.
Global markets on oilseed complex continue to slide. Australian Canola seed market in Nepal facing competition from Ukranian rapeseed due to aggressive price offers. Our Indication for GM Canola min 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 620 pmt. We haven’t seen any firm queries in last 1 week.
AUD/USD 0.65 at 6-month low which is supportive for Aussie exports, however falling demand against expected significant northern hemisphere crops and global macro fears keeping a lid on export volumes across grains and pulses.
On new crop estimates, whilst planting hectares will be similar across all pulse’s crops, however expected yields are estimated lower by various agencies with PIRSA in SA expecting lentils to harvest about 1.73 mt/ha in 23/24 crop vs 2.75 mt/ha in 22/23 crop. (191,600 ha yielding 527,250 mt in 22/23 vs expected 201,400 ha yielding 348,800 mt). We expect this trend to be similar across all Australian states due to threat of El Nino which may threaten our crop prospects this spring.
Global wheat market found support due to the resurgence of uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian export corridor & dry weather in US settling into corn and soybean-growing regions. Despite of unchanged dry weather condition still US struggling to compete with Russia who is holding large stocks of cheap wheat. In order regain importer’s attention, lack of demand is causing US wheat price dip below corn.
Australian growers have been busy crop planting, we see slowdown in export interests. We anticipated firm demand of Wheat from Asia countries but facing competition from cheap Russian wheat. We don’t see any meaningful support for Australian wheat prices in the short term due to the sufficient global wheat supply, cheap and plentiful Russian wheat, and worse economic conditions.
In Barely market, Australian growers clearly sees that Chinese demand and prospects for new crops are the two clear opportunities. We are keeping an eye on the Chinese tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. New potential upside should new crop prospects suffer due to drier conditions. Due to the threat of El Nino the new crop bids aren’t yet at the point where they would create interest.
In Sorghum, Australian grower anticipating that Chinese demand is still the dominant factor with the weaker Australian dollar supports prices.