Black Sea wheat continues to be cheapest source, keeping a lid on Australian exports and values

Black sea grain corridor expiring 18th July 23, less compulsion to renewal by Russia may lead to impact on grain markets. 33 mmt appx. exported via the grain corridor, may need to find alternate routes via river/rail/road options.

US weather markets in play on the boards. Better prospects of rain over the US Midwest now factored in however US wheat still at significant premium to Black Sea and may need to discount further.

Australian domestic wheat market observes strong demands for SFW from QLD feed markets. Export demand remains flat with exporters focusing only on front month shipment coverages which are easily purchased without pushing values upwards.

India, might look for a wheat import. As the federation of millers of India, wheat production 2023/24 forecasted is 101-103 MMT against the earlier wheat production 2023/24 forecasted by by the MoA & FW 112.74 MMT last month. Government holding appx 8.7mmt of wheat for market interventions post PDS and buffer requirements and with stock limits in place may be able to hold off imports for now.

A significant rain band cutting across NT and crossing over east into QLD and NSW may bring welcome rainfall to dry northern plains of NSW this week and next. May allow for those dry areas from Moree to Walgett to be planted – most likely wheat and barley acres and to a lesser extent chickpeas.

Several good rainfalls in WA, SA & VIC in June seems to have alleviated any moisture stress on winter crops and growing recent demand for urea ahead of rain events indicate that growers in many areas with good rainfall totals may now have confidence on winter crop prospects. Would it be a moderate El Nino! BOM forecasts indicate IOD likely to be positive only by Aug,23 lending to drier conditions so spring dryness may have impact.

Growers showing little interest to sell new crop 2023-24 production, though uptick in new crop APW values upwards of A$410 port have seen some participation by growers having good soil moisture profiles.

This week containerized trade price advise from market sources :-

SE Asia – APW traded in mid U$ 320s