Global wheat market has been bullish due to spike in Chinese business of US wheat, they covered roughly 660,000 tons recently. Australian wheat markets have seen a boost due to the bullish strength on the boards. However, demand still lackluster and with expected slow export pace from CIS, there should be uptick in demand for Aus’s wheat in Q1.
As per ABARES, projection estimate lifted in December winter crop report on Wheat 25.5MT, Barley 11.1MT, Canola 5.5MT, Lentils 13.93MT, Chickpeas 528KT, Faba Beans 484KT, Field peas 238KT, & Lupins 524KT.
Grower selling on wheat has been generally slow this harvest with lower demand for export and lower grower engagement, however recent weather events in SA & VIC have protein spreads increase due to majority of wheat being harvested falling into ASW/APW range.
In chickpeas, demand for new crop Australian chickpeas is currently at a standstill, with little demand from any destination. No price parity into Pakistan, Bangladesh with limited interest and Nepal completely absent from trade.
In China, lackluster demand for Australian Kaspa Peas although with significant jump to Canadian YP due to India relaxing import restrictions, we hope to see some market reaction from China. We are observing demand for Sorghum (old crop) which trading at U$ 350/mt levels to CNF China major ports & no firm interest coming for Sorghum (new crop) as we heard trade offers at U$330/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers for March/April shipments. On Australian barley facing competition with Argentina & Russian barley, we heard trade offers for Australian barley at U$270/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.
In Pakistan, observing minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils, as we heard NIP1/HAL1 trade offers at U$730/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Jan/Feb/March shipments. Some business earlier this week reported at U$720-725 levels CFR Karachi.
In India, no firm demand coming for Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at U$720/mt levels to Kolkata in containers. We observed some small activity’s in faba beans over last week, which is trading at U$440/mt levels to Kolkata in containers.
Recently, India removed import duty on yellow peas to nil from 50% & allows import till 31st March 2024. More on next market report on market reactions and demand. Currently buyers and sellers are scoping trade direction and price discovery underway.
In Nepal, no major trade acitivity happening at the moment for lentils, desi chickpeas & canola seeds
Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only
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