Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (14/06/2024)

US wheat crop harvest, harvest commencing in Europe and alleviating weather concerns for Russia have eased global wheat prices; Australian wheat prices have also eased following global cues. APW prices have declined by A$12–15/MT this week.

Australian wheat is expected to face intense competition from Russian and Ukrainian wheat in the SEA & EA region, since Turkey has put a hold on wheat imports from both nations until the next government notification. In SEA region APW being quoted at U$308/MT levels to CFR Major SEA ports which is U$10 higher than CIS origins.

Indian pulses markets continue to trade under fundamental demand matrix though with increased fears of government controls. Market sources indicate that the current crop of Australian desi chickpeas are nearly sold out, origin prices for new crop are firming up as demand from India is expected to remain strong in the coming months.

Demand for Australian desi chickpeas in India has eased in the past week with offers and bids declining U$10/MT week on week; offers are quoted at U$890/MT to CNF India ports (Jul/Aug) with limited buyer interest, and forward month business is reportedly trading at U$860-65/MT to CNF India (Oct/Nov) in containers. Australian red lentils are in low demand; hearing that trade reported at U$745/mt to CFR Kolkata in containers.

In Pakistan, the Eid festival is approaching, and there has been no trade activity for the past 5 weeks due to sluggish demand. Current trade offers are reported for NIP1/HAL1 at U$750-755/MT, CHK1 at U$910/MT, & CHKM at U$835/MT to CFR Karachi in containers.

Australia’s red sorghum is in stable to low demand in China, hearing trade offers at U$304/MT to CFR Tianjin (Jul/Aug) in containers. There is minimal demand for Australian GMB P-grades because other origins of GMB are more reasonably priced. Trade offers of Australian GMB-P grade at U$980/MT to CFR Qingdao. Kaspa peas have been quoted at U$505/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers, reflecting some buyer interest.

In Nepal, minimal demand for Australian canola, chickpeas, and red lentils. we hearing trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$795/MT to CFR Birgunj & recent trade reported for canola at U$630/MT to CFR Kolkata (J/J or J/A) in containers. 

In Egypt, there is minimal demand for Australian faba beans and lupins. Trade offers for faba beans have been heard at USD 545-550/MT to CFR Damietta.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (31/05/2024)

All eyes on Russia and Ukraine weather concerns presently. There have been significant downgrades to Russian wheat crop on account of frosts and dryness in key growing areas although some rains now forecast. Yield potential (more likely in vicinity of 80 – 85 MMT) is still a large unknown until harvest, which is weighing on traders pricing of forward new crop business on both cereals and pulses from those origins.

There is talk of India eliminating its wheat import duty which will likely see an import volume of wheat about 5-6MMT June onwards. GOI working front foot to build its buffer wheat stock purchasing 26.24 MMT vs target of 31 MMT with Indian growers holding back on sales anticipating higher prices.

This week Australian wheat prices have risen due to increased offshore market demand and dryness affecting most parts of the country. In SEA, APW trade reported below U$310/MT levels to CFR SEA main ports in containers.

In QLD & NSW, desi chickpea planting is progressing well. More barley acres reportedly being diverted to chickpeas. We are largely expecting upto 1 million ha being planted to chickpeas between the two states. There has been robust demand for Australian desi chickpeas in India, trades are reported at U$900/MT for Jun/Jul shipments & forward trade reported at U$875/MT for Nov/Dec to CNF India in containers.

Lentils have been planted dry is SA and VIC, however this week between 10-25 mm rain has fallen on SA cropping region which will boost sentiments. Trade demand for Australian red lentils is stable, as we heard trade reported at U$745/MT – J/J shipment to CNF India in containers.

The lack of firm demand for Australian lentils and desi chickpeas from Pakistan over the past three weeks. No trade movement in the market as we are hearing trade offers quoted for NIP1/HAL1 – U$755-760/MT; CHK1 – U$920/MT; CHKM – U$810/MT to CFR Karachi in containers with no firm interest from buyers. According to market experts, there has been a significant price surge in the Pakistani local market this week, with CHKM reaching U$700/MT and NIP/HAL1 reaching U$715/MT. 

Lack of participation from Nepal for Australian red lentils, desi chickpeas & canola as prices are not workable for business at the moment. We heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$810/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers. 

Bangladesh is not participation due to slow demand for Australian desi chickpeas & lentils & also no price parity in the destination market at present. Getting some inquiries for Kaspa peas.

Chinese market is currently seeing a dip in demand. Australian sorghum is being quoted at U$300/MT to CNF China main ports for July/Aug shipment with limited buying interest, as buyers are eyeing on to cheaper options such as USA Sorghum & Argentina sorghum. No buying interest for Australian GMB as trade offers at U$920/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers.  

In Egypt, observing minimal demand for faba beans & lupins. As we heard that lupins trade reported at U$510/MT to CFR Damietta in containers. Aus Faba beans have been bid USD540/MT Damietta.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/05/2024)

Current weather patterns in Black Sea and the US are causing price fluctuations in the global wheat market. As per market experts that East and West Australia are predicted to experience dry patterns. In SEA, APW quoted at U$319/MT levels to CNF SEA major ports.

The ongoing heatwave in India has resulted in a sharp spike in the cost of vegetables and pulses. Australia’s desi chickpeas, both old and new crop, is in high demand in India. Hearing trade offers as follows :

  • CHK1(23/24) at U$910/MT to CNF India (Jun/Jul) & while new crop CHK1(24/25) at U$875/MT to CNF India (Nov/Dec) in containers.

As we are hearing recent trades have been reported at the following levels :

  • CHK1(23/24) at U$860-870/MT to CFR Nhava Sheva (Jun/Jul) & while CHK1(24/25) at U$830/MT to CNF India (Dec/Jan) in containers.

The demand for Australian lentils in India remains stable, trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 are being quoted at U$740/MT to CNF India (Jun/July) & while forward trade reported for NIP1/HAL1 at U$700-705/MT to CNF India (Nov/Dec) in containers.

The trade activity for Australian desi chickpeas and red lentils in Pakistan has been sluggish over the past two weeks, with no trade movement reported. Demand remains weak, reflecting market condition. As we are hearing trade offers quoted for NIP1/HAL1 at U$750-755/MT; CHKM at U$800/MT & CHK1 at U$910/MT to CFR Karachi (Jun/Jul) in containers.

In China, demand for Australian red sorghum is stable, as we are hearing trade offers quoted at U$312/MT levels to CFR Tianjin (Jul/Aug) in containers & while, bulk cargo of Australian reported trading at U$310/MT levels in July. No firm interest in Australian GMB, quoted at U$920/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers.

In Nepal, we hearing trade offer of NIP1/HAL1 at U$785/MT levels to CFR Birgunj. No demand for Australian desi chickpeas at the moment.

In Egypt, no major demand for faba beans & lupins, as we are hearing that 4 bulk cargoes of faba beans has covered up market demand. As we hearing trade offer quoted for faba beans at U$530/MT to CFR Damietta in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (17/05/2024)

USDA report projected a 24/25 season global increase in wheat production of 798.2 MMT, primarily from Kazakhstan, Canada, China, India, Australia, and the US. However, ending stocks projected at a tight 253.61 MMT which was bullish news along with weather impact concerns on Russian crop harvesting in July. Australia is expected to produce 29MMT in 24/25. Northern hemisphere harvest commencing July will determine course on wheat pricing for next season and is expected to be slightly bullish.

The Australian wheat cash markets have closely followed bullish sentiments with cash bids up about A$10 pmt across all port zones. The current prices quoted as per market sources for APW and APH2 stand at U$310-U$320/MT and U$390-U$400/MT range to CNF SEA major ports.

The Australian chickpea market continues to be strong, buoyed by short harvest in India. Market still has not found decent parity with origin bid strongly whilst destination interest remains weak. Trade offers for CNF major India ports stand at U$850/MT for June/July & U$820/MT for Nov/Dec shipments. Domestic markets in India slowly creeping up on pricing due to low arrivals whilst potential of government intervention looms.

Australian red lentils are trading at U$730/MT – CFR Kolkata for June/July shipment. Demand is better this past week though with lower selling by growers in Vic/SA, origin pricing maintains its strength and traders struggle with profitability.

Trade movement for Pakistan destination is stagnant due to low demand for Australian lentils and chickpeas. Reports indicate that trade offers for CHKM are quoted at U$790/MT; CHK1 at U$865/MT ; and NIP1/HAL1 at U$725/MT to CFR Karachi in containers. Market experts suggest that the local market is slow, with CHKM priced at U$665/MT and Nipper at U$700/MT equivalent which is a fair bit off from import values creating disparity.

Demand for Australian sorghum in China remains steady, with trade offers cited at U$295/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers as Chinese buyer showing interest in Argentina’s sorghum trading at 260/MT levels in bulk shipments. A couple of bulk Australian sorghum cargoes reportedly traded for Jun/Jul shipment at U$285-U$290 CNF China ports. Further this week there has been a lack of buying interest for Australian GMB, indicating weak demand, with trade offers for Processing grade at U$920/MT to CFR Qingdao. Australian barley is trading at U$280-282/MT in boxes, with bulk shipments priced at USD 275/MT for CNF China main port. Additionally, Kaspa peas have target buying levels at U$420/MT, contrasting with offers at U$475/MT as Australia origin values remain strong and illiquid. 

Trade movements for Faba beans and Lupins in Egypt have remained stagnant, with Lupins being quoted at U$540/MT for CIF Damietta in containers, yet there has been no notable interest from buyers. Faba beans demand covered by bulk vessels and longer containers transit to Egypt keeping traders away.

In Bangladesh, trade offers for CHK1 have been quoted at U$825/MT CFR Chittagong in containers for Nov/Dec shipments, but there is limited interest from buyers. Kaspa peas quoted at U$490-495/MT levels to CFR Chittagong containers.

In Nepal, we are noticing minimal trade demand for Australian lentils & no firm demands for CHK1, as NIP1/HAL1 trades reported at U$760 CNF Birgunj and quoted at U$765/MT levels.

South Australia, parts of Victoria and WA remain dry which is causing some trade anxiety and lower grower sales participation in current markets. Dryness now may also impact 24/25 crop prospects in these 2 states. Qld, NSW and eastern parts of Victoria are well poised for a good planting due to substantial availability of subsoil moisture. About 70% of winter crop expected to have been planted by mid-May.

Traders projecting a desi chickpeas crop of appx. 1.5 MMT with increased planting intentions on account of extremely good pricing cues of upcountry bids of A$1000 +/-. ABARE June crop report eagerly awaited by trade for crop size and potential.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (03/05/2024)

Recent issues in the Middle East and Black Sea regions have led to a firm up of the global wheat markets, propelling prices upward, while the Australian wheat market has strengthened last week. As we are hearing that APW traded at US$289/MT for CFR BMT for July shipment; APH2 being quoted at US$350/MT to CNF major SEA ports.

This week, as China is on holiday, the market demand has slowed. However, Australian red sorghum no. 1 is currently trading at U$285/MT for CFR Tianjin for July/August shipments. There is no firm interest in Australian GMB processing grade, with trade offers at U$940/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers. Similarly, there is no demand for Kaspa peas, with trade offers heard at U$440/MT for CFR Tianjin in containers. Trade offers for Australian barley stand at U$262/MT levels to CNF major China ports.

Since last two weeks demand for old crop desi chickpeas is strengthening, reflecting interest for May/June shipments from ME, Pakistan & Bangladesh. Despite domestic crop in India and Pakistan on harvest now, we are continuing to see strengthening domestic demand strength in both countries and there is expectation that demand will continue to spike towards end of 2024 due to a tight domestic balance sheet on account of lower planted area. Speculative still whether India will allow duty free imports. Trade offers for CHKM have been reported at U$685/MT for CFR Karachi, but buyer interest remains limited while they receive supplies from domestic crop harvest at an import parity basis U$595-U$600/MT. New crop Oct/Nov/Dec shipment slot Australian CHK1 remains strongly bid by traders in Australia and for CFR markets. Australian CHK1 new crop, with market offers seen at U$770/MT (Oct/Nov/Dec) & CHK1 old crop, trade offers at U$750/MT (June/July) for multiple port options.

The demand for Australian red lentils has slowed down. Additionally, trade offeror NIP1/HAL1 are being offered at U$720-U$730/MT to Indian sub-continent ports (June/July) in containers. Market experts indicate that local market prices have decreased, with Nipper at import buying interest basis of U$695/MT.

Trade activity in Nepal is stagnant due to sluggish market demand. Current trade offers for CHK1 are reported at U$810/MT for CFR Birgunj. Meanwhile, canola is indicated at U$650/MT for CFR Birgunj, yet there is no interest from buyers. 

The market demand for faba beans & lupins is weak in Egypt, with very limited business opportunities in containerized trade compared to bulk shipping, as the local crop harvest is near. Trade offers for lupins have been reported to CFR Damietta in containers at U$490/MT with limited buyer interest. Faba beans earlier bid U$505/MT CFR Damietta in containers but this week demand has waned. Very limited supplies in Australia as bulk shippers chasing limited tonnes with aggressive pricing to fill their shipping commitments in May/June.

On crop plating in Australia, WA and SA are dry sowing with both states receiving limited rain. Qld, NSW and parts of Vic have received good rainfall and expecting more this weekend which should be for seed germination and crop growth.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (12/04/2024)

Australian wheat market sees small price increases at grower level earlier this week but wheat is globally still in bearish trend with large ending stocks as per latest WASDE report. Export demand remains low in SEA regions, with APW containers quoted at low U$280/mt – traded U$273/mt Thailand port; APH2 at U$345/mt to CNF SEA major ports with lack of interest from buyers. China continues to cancel US & Australia wheat bulk shipments as they may be looking at other cheaper origins and their own upcoming harvest for lower priced purchases.

The global oilseed markets, purely driven by middle-east security macros have led crude oil and palm oil price surges. Australian canola prices in turn have also been receiving support last week. With rapeseed harvest from Ukraine, May onwards we may see some global downward pressure in physical markets. Canola container business pricing presently unworkable to Nepal at U$620/mt levels.

In India, with the limited arrival of domestic lentils in the local mandi’s and perceived tight pulses crops balance sheet, there has been some activity in the Australian red lentils market. Trades have been reported at US$720/MT levels for CFR Kolkata in containers for June/July shipment in containers. Australia domestic pricing has surged A$40-A$50 pmt in last 10 days. No demand for faba beans in India, as we heard trade offers at U$490-495/mt to CFR Kolkata with no interest from buyers.

Demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas in Pakistan is sluggish, which is also influenced by the ongoing Eid holiday’s. Reportedly, there is limited buyer interest in the trade offer for NIP1/HAL1 at US$715/mt to CFR Karachi this week.

Australian Lentil export shipments surged by 61% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; India and Pakistan were the leading buyers, as per ABS.

The Australian chickpea market has traded sideways in both new and old crops this week. There has been limited buying activity from countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates. New crop 24/25 (Oct-Dec) crop containers trading with multi-port options around U$720/mt CFR sub-continent/ME ports. There has been very limited grower participation in forward selling of new crop chickpeas just yet but we expect this kind of pricing will be strong motivation for growers to increase acreage planted to chickpeas – we will know more in June once crops are planted.

Chickpea export shipments increased by 44% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; Pakistan and the UAE were the major importers, as per ABS.

Trade activity in Nepal has been observed, with Australian red lentils trading at US$755/mt levels for CFR Birgunj in containers.

In China, the demand for sorghum is currently stable to low for May/June/July shipments, with trade offers heard at U$302/mt CFR Tianjin in containers this week. Rains at harvest in Queensland have been a bit of dampener for Sorghum trade. Sorghum exports dropped by 51% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month; China and Japan remained significant markets, as per ABS.

As we learned on GMB demand that due to the availability of GMB from other origins at lower prices, interest in Australian GMB has diminished; the quoted price for Australian GMB at US$940/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers.

Australian barley trade offers at U$270/mt to CNF China major ports with lack on interest. Barley exports, including feed barley, decreased by 38% in Feb,24 compared to the previous month, while malt barley exports fell by 63% during the same period; China continued as the primary buyer for both malt and feed barley, as per ABS.

Since last 2-3 weeks no significant demand is coming for faba beans & lupins from Egypt as Eid holiday’s going on. Australian faba beans are now on a tight balance sheet with limited availability of good quality beans in Victoria and South Australia. Prices have steadily increased, we can expect some more beans for export container business to only show in July post FY close for growers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/04/2024)

Australian wheat market has remained relatively unchanged over the past month, slight uptick in domestic bids of A$2-A$4 pmt last week – largely reflective of AUD/USD movements and demand and supply tightness for APW or higher grades whilst demand for ASW type is lower. Global wheat markets have been largely flat with no significant supply concerns and a large northern hemisphere crop expected.

Australian wheat exporters finding it difficult to secure new export business & also facing stiff competition from black sea wheat. We are hearing freight costs to SEA ex CIS going up which may open up some markets for Australian product. As we heard that APW is quoted at U$275/mt and APH2 at U$330/mt to CNF major SEA ports & also getting enquiries for feed wheat from China, buying idea at U$245/mt levels to CNF China ports.

The sorghum crop in Southern QLD has come under the weather with harvest stopping and some expected quality downgrades in SE QLD due to wet harvest. Later crops in Central QLD and Northern NSW should be ok. Quiet week on Sorghum as growers have stopped further selling and bids from shorts at slight uptick of A$2 to A$4 pmt upcountry.

In China, there’s continuing demand of Australian red sorghum forward shipments, particularly for July/August shipments, while interest in May/June or June/July shipments is lackluster due to slower consumption in Chinese markets. Bid levels CFR China ports around U$285 for Jul/Aug.

Green Mung beans are quoted at U$930/mt levels to CFR Qingdao, but there’s currently sideline interest from buyers. They are wanting to see quality of harvest currently underway. Some SE QLD mungbeans crop have quality issues now post 4 days of heavy rains in the region.

The Kaspa peas demand in China is slow with reports of small quantities trading at around U$415/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers. Australian barley is also being traded in China, with offers at U$265/mt to CNF China major ports for containers.

Australia’s local desi chickpea market is relatively quiet, with demand from key countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, UAE, and Nepal is sluggish, possibly picking up post-Eid according to market experts. Limited stocks and limited grower/trader selling have kept Australian chickpeas at flat price levels, no urgency to sell.

In Bangladesh, as Eid approaches, demand for Australian red lentils, CHK1, and Canola has slowed. As we heard that trades reported for Canola at U$540/mt levels and NIP/HAL1 at U$695/mt to CFR Chattogram.

Nepal’s market has been sluggish over the past 5-6 months, with Australian red lentils trading at $725/mt to CFR Birgunj; Canola has been priced out with container buyers pursuing market rally in last 1 month. Australian canola prices have been very strong on back of significant demand in bulk export markets on account of being still discounted to Canadian canola seed. Expect market offers around U$625-U$630/mt CFR Brigunj in containers.

Egypt’s market shows no major demand on containers business. Hearing trade offers for Faba beans at U$485/mt and Lupins at U$505/mt to CFR Damietta with no buying interest. Container transit at 95 days plus due to Red sea issues. Due to Red Sea issues most faba demand shifted to bulk vessels which have now priced out container business with bulk buyer Portland bids in Victoria at about A$600 port.

Pakistan experiences slow demand as Eid approaches, with Australian red lentils trade offers at U$690/mt to CFR Karachi. No demand in desi chickpeas.

In India, as the domestic harvest of chana and lentils is expected within two weeks, the demand for Australian red lentils remains low. Only a few trades have been reported for NIP/HAL1 at U$690/mt CFR Kolkata for shipments scheduled in May/June/July shipments. IMD warns extreme heat Apr-June period though rabi harvest may not be significantly impacted as crops have matured. Monsoonal impact yet unknown, though any anomalies may impact kharif crop. Food inflation still a worry for India due to low carrying stock on various grains and pulses and summer weather impact on other food categories in horticulture and fodder crops.

East coast of Australia has received some good March/April rains which will provide better moisture to plant the winter crop, though Western Australia has been dry which is a concern to winter crop prospects. We will know more on winter crop planting in a months time. Growers now gearing up to start planting winter crop in the East Coast from end April onwards.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/03/2024)

As per recent report of ABARES, 23/24 crop production for wheat at 25.96 MMT (2% below 10 yr average), barley at 10.8 MMT (4% below 10 yr average), and canola at 5.68 MMT which is still higher production than long term average crops.

Australian wheat market has remained flat with little demand and growers choosing to hold back on sales. Australian wheat is still not competitive against other wheat origins into SE Asia. No significant demand into China as well. Russian and Ukraine continue to ship out their wheat at 10-15% higher pace than same time last year and at a significantly cheaper price than Australian and US wheat.

In SEA region, we are getting inquiries for Australian wheat forward shipments. This week we heard trade offers quoted for APW1 to U$270/mt levels & APH2 to U$332/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports in containers. Bit of an uptick in shipments of wheat in containers ex Australia as per latest stats – is increased by approx. 25% from Dec,23; as Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand are main buyers. Exports of bulk in vessel is increased by 104% from Dec’23; as China & Indonesia remained top buyer as per ABS.

Australian red sorghum is in demand this week in China, trading at U$290+/-/mt to CNF China main ports. Also, Australian green mung beans are also gaining some interest, with quotes between U$945-950/mt to CFR Qingdao in containers May shipments. Interest in Kaspa peas seen earlier this week at USD 415/mt main China ports.

India’s demand for Australian red lentils is slow due to domestic rabi crop harvesting on cards, as we heard from the market sources that with few forward cargo trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$700/mt for June shipments in containers. There was a slight uptick in forward demand earlier this week which was mainly driven by lower mandi arrivals in India coupled with some fear of increased government purchases which may decrease stock availability. However, with an exportable surplus of 800,000 MT+ from Australia and significant stock at government warehouses, any surges should be limited.

Australian desi chickpeas & lentils are experiencing a bearish market in Pakistan due to the Ramadan festival and local crop harvesting on the cards, as heard from the market source that lentils vessel of 22K is arrived at port & also desi chickpeas vessel of 16K enroute to Pakistan, as result local market is down at the moment. This week heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$695/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers. Desi chickpeas – no demand forthcoming with seller quotes ranging $640 CHKM to $690 CHK1 (23/24)

Interest in Australian KASPA PEAS and CHK1 has been observed in Bangladesh, with trade offers quoted at U$460/mt levels & U$685/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. Limited sales though with LC opening issues still ongoing.

No movement / demand in Nepal for Australian lentils, desi chickpeas & GM canola seeds in CFR Birgunj.

Egyptian pound devalued almost 50% this week, from 31 pounds to the dollar to 50 pounds/dollar, stabilised at 49.5. USD inflows expected to increase which may assist USD availability. No demand for faba or lentils from Egypt this week.

The Australian dollar experienced 1% jump this week, now trading 0.6632.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (23/02/2024)

Global wheat market still dominated by Black Sea wheat. Australian wheat is having difficulty because of the sluggish demand in the SEA region; this week, APW1 and APH2 were quoted at U$280/mt levels and U$340/mt levels to CNF major SEA ports in containers.

China is returning from vacation & we are seeing demand for Australian red sorghum, as heard this week trading at U$290/mt levels at CFR Tianjin. We have learned that Australian Mung beans were quoted at U$980/mt levels to CFR Qingdao. This week bids for Australian Kaspa peas are improving to U $400/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Australia’s red lentils are currently in slow demand in India; we learned last week that NIP1/HAL1 is trading in containers for CFR Kolkata at U$690–695/mt levels in containers. As reported last week, there is not much demand for faba beans, as heard Faba beans traded at U$445/mt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Yesterday, India extended yellow peas import time till 30th April 2024, Also heard from the market source that small quantity of Australian desi chickpeas traded at U$685/mt to CFR Mundra & multiple port options in containers this week.

In Pakistan, we are observing sluggish demand for Australian red lentils & we hearing Australian red lentils trading at U$700/mt levels.

In Nepal, no significant demand for Australian red lentils, chickpeas & GM canola. As we heard GM canola trade offers at U$575/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

We are seeing minimal demand in Egypt for Faba beans & as we are hearing trade offers at U$495/mt to CFR Damietta in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (26/01/2024)

Australian wheat market prices remain unchanged last week due to slow demand from offshore destinations. Markets mostly trading sideways with now new upside factors yet. Weather impacts to northern hemisphere wheat Feb onwards would be the next drivers of volatility – remains to be seen. SEA millers are also generating very limited demand in the region, with APW1 being quoted at U$300/mt levels for major SEA ports in containers. Heard bulk APW offers at U$295 CNF SEA ports; ASW high U$270’s CNF SEA ports.

Australian barley facing fierce competition from Black Sea & Argentina in China market. Hearing Russian barley being quoted between U$230-245/mt levels to CNF major China ports & Australian barley quoted at U$275/mt levels in containers. Bulk Australian barley flows continue into China is at regular pace with appx. 3 mmt exported since restrictions were lifted.

Negligible demand for Kaspa peas in China with their YP stock at ports in excess of 300k mt and slow local markets. Any new price direction now to be post Chinese New Year holidays(09Feb24 to 18Feb24). Australian red sorghum trade offers at U$310-315/mt in containers against cheaper USA sorghum offers at U$295/mt to CNF major China ports with limited buying interest. New crop Australian mungbeans have also continued to trade at around U$950/mt levels CNF Qingdao. Australian summer crop Sorghum & mungbeans are currently expected to be doing well on back of ample moisture due to recent rain events in eastern Australia. Sorghum harvest expected by trade at this stage to be closer/over 2mmt – ABARE numbers yet awaited). Harvest will be well spread out with Central Queensland planting the crop in Jan, harvest likely May/June/July, early southern crops starting to harvest now. Mungbeans with weather permitting may be a 100kmt crop although numbers not yet out and traders keeping fingers crossed.

Demand for Australian red lentils in India is pretty much flat, with no major trading activity reported last week. We heard trade offers of NIP1/HAL1 at U$710-715/mt levels & also heard from the market sources that NIP1/HAL1 traded at U$705/mt in containers (April/May) shipment. As India’s Rabi crop starts to mature Feb onwards, we may see some direction with hopes YP/lentils will continue to be imported to fill in any Rabi crop shortfalls.

In Nepal, no major trade activity in Australian red lentils & Desi chickpeas, while limited quantity of Australian canola min.44% traded at U$585-590/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Heard small demand for Australian Lentils at $730 – $740/mt and Desi’s at $640/mt CNF Birgunj – not viable basis Australia replacement cost.

The current market in Pakistan is bearish on the pulses complex; CHKM is being quoted at U$615/mt and NIP1/HAL1 lentils at U$715/mt levels in containers. As heard from market sources that limited CHKM trades were reported between at U$590-595/mt levels in containers.

Australian red lentils are not gaining significant attention in Bangladesh. Enquiries for Canola and Kaspa peas at U$560-565/mt and U$460-470/mt levels respectively CNF Chittagong. CHK1 trade reported below U$695/mt levels to CNF Chittagong in container. 5 Chickpeas vessels(150kmt) on track ex Australia for Bangladesh arrival in Q1, 2024.

In Egypt, we are observing limited trade activity in Faba beans, which is trading over $485/mt (fiesta type)& Warda type over U$465/mt to CFR Damietta in containers last week. Red Sea surcharges affecting trade flows to Egypt although demand remains consistent.

On 2024 cropping, Australia should be on track to produce a major crop in winter 2024 thanks to the summer rains across all eastern Australia cropping areas filling up the deficits on soil moisture profiles. According to some analysts 2024 winter crop could be on track to produce in excess of 31mmt wheat; 13mmt barley; 6mt canola weather permitting.

Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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