Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (23/02/2024)

Global wheat market still dominated by Black Sea wheat. Australian wheat is having difficulty because of the sluggish demand in the SEA region; this week, APW1 and APH2 were quoted at U$280/mt levels and U$340/mt levels to CNF major SEA ports in containers.

China is returning from vacation & we are seeing demand for Australian red sorghum, as heard this week trading at U$290/mt levels at CFR Tianjin. We have learned that Australian Mung beans were quoted at U$980/mt levels to CFR Qingdao. This week bids for Australian Kaspa peas are improving to U $400/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Australia’s red lentils are currently in slow demand in India; we learned last week that NIP1/HAL1 is trading in containers for CFR Kolkata at U$690–695/mt levels in containers. As reported last week, there is not much demand for faba beans, as heard Faba beans traded at U$445/mt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Yesterday, India extended yellow peas import time till 30th April 2024, Also heard from the market source that small quantity of Australian desi chickpeas traded at U$685/mt to CFR Mundra & multiple port options in containers this week.

In Pakistan, we are observing sluggish demand for Australian red lentils & we hearing Australian red lentils trading at U$700/mt levels.

In Nepal, no significant demand for Australian red lentils, chickpeas & GM canola. As we heard GM canola trade offers at U$575/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

We are seeing minimal demand in Egypt for Faba beans & as we are hearing trade offers at U$495/mt to CFR Damietta in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (09/02/2024)

Global wheat market is bearish, as market experts are anticipating rise in demand post Chinese New Year as China being key buyer. Australian wheat remains quiet due to lack of export demand from offshore market.

Very small demand from SEA millers for Australian wheat, as we heard APW1 being quoted at U$305/mt levels; APH2 being quoted at U$360/mt levels to CNF SEA major ports.

Export of wheat containerized increased by 11% in Dec,23 (134,782 MT) compared to previous month Nov23(121,487 MT); major buyers are Thailand, Vietnam & China. Export of bulk in wheat increased by 26% in Dec,23 (1,267,514 MT) compared to Nov,23 (1,007,848 MT); Top importers are China, Philippines & Indonesia in December as per ABS.

Australian desi chickpeas demand remains slow as no participation from Nepal, UAE, Pakistan & Bangladesh already covered Ramadhan demand in December. Small pocket size demand from Bangladesh at about U$685/mt CFR Chittagong levels.

Export of chickpeas increased by 189% in Dec,23 (94,763MT) compared to Nov,23 (32,697MT); most bulk shipments only executing. Main buyer is Bangladesh in December as per ABS.

We observe a strong demand for Australian red sorghum as China’s new holidays get near, and we have heard that sorghum is trading for between U$295-U$305/mt to CNF China major ports. Australian mung beans are trading in containers to CFR Qingdao at U$950-955/mt levels.

Kaspa peas no significant trade demand against cheaper Russian yellow peas at U$380/mt to CNF China major ports; Australian barley not competitive against Russian barley at U$240-245/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers.

Exports of Lentils increased by 99% in Dec,23 (237,345 MT) compared to Nov,23 (119,134 MT); Top importers are India & Bangladesh in December as per ABS. Onoing demand from India at sub/par U$700–U$710/mt to CFR Kolkata/NS all the way upto June,24 shipment period. Limited volume trades in containers as margins have eroded for traders and significant grower selling resistance below these levels. India’s Rabi crop outlook is key factor in determining price direction and demand on lentils in the coming months. Extended period of cold weather and sudden change of temperature in crucial Feb/Mar period may have an impact on yield – remains to be seen.

The Pakistani domestic desi chickpea crop is gaining attention as it could potentially determine the new direction and price in the market. Currently no demand forthcoming and with elections counting underway we expect market to be quiet for atleast next 1 month till a stable government is sworn in with new direction and cues to trade.

We are observing minimal trade activity in Australain lentils into Pakistan & heard trade offers for CHKM at U$620/mt levels & NIP1/HAL1 at U$715/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, observing trade activity in Kaspa peas, which trading at U$445/mt levels to CFR Chittagong. As we heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$695/mt levels and CHK1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers for prompt shipments.

Presently, there is no significant demand in Nepal for Australian lentils, CHK1, or canola, but buyers are bidding at lower prices for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725-U$730/mt levels; CHK1 at U$650/mt levels; canola at U$570/mt levels – all CFR Birgunj which are not viable as Australian replacement cost is higher.

Containerised exports of pulses and grains remain subdued in Q1 on account lower demand from destinations who have remained well fed by northern hemisphere origins as growers in Australia continue to dribble out only small quantities of all grains and pulses and there is significant resistance to selling below target values. Pulses export volumes continue to be driven by bulk vessel exports of lentils, chickpeas and faba beans to Indian sub-continent and Middle East markets.

We are attending GPC Pulses 24 conference in New Delhi from 14th Feb 24 to 17th Feb 24 and subsequently also attending Gulfood event at Dubai from 19th Feb 24 to 23rd Feb 24, please feel free to reach out to us for a catch up/discussion or just to say hello if you are attending any of these events.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (12/01/2024)

Global wheat markets experienced a seasonal slowdown during the festive season break, while Australian wheat markets remained quiet as well. In SE Asia region, APW being quoted at U$305/mt levels & AH2 being quoted at U$385/mt levels to CFR major SEA ports.

In desi chickpeas, experiencing slow demand in new crop from any destination. Nepal is completely absent from participation. No price parity in Pakistan & Bangladesh market.

Australian lentil demand is bearish in India, we heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$735-740/mt levels to Kolkata with no firm buying interest. Limited trades reported last week between at U$710-715/mt levels in containers.

We are seeing some trade activities in Pakistan around desi chickpeas as Ramadan is near buyers are trying to secure coverage in Jan shipments. We heard trade offers for CHKM quoted at U$625-630/mt levels to CFR Karachi for Jan shipments in containers & also we are hearing trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$730/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Nepal, no major developments are observed in Australian lentils, desi chickpeas & Canola seeds. As we are hearing buying idea for GM Canola min.44% at U$580/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers.

The Chinese market is silent as no firm demand coming for Australian barley & KASPA PEAS. Buyers are receiving trade offers of Russian barley at U$230/mt as the feed market searches for low-cost barley. For Australian sorghum, we are hearing buying idea at U$320-330/mt levels for new crop to CNF China major ports in containers.

In Egypt, we are observing some activity in Faba beans, as we heard trade offers for Faba beans quoted at U$485/mt levels to CFR Damietta in containers.

The Bangladeshi market is silent, no participation from buyers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/12/2023)

Global wheat market has been bullish due to spike in Chinese business of US wheat, they covered roughly 660,000 tons recently. Australian wheat markets have seen a boost due to the bullish strength on the boards. However, demand still lackluster and with expected slow export pace from CIS, there should be uptick in demand for Aus’s wheat in Q1.

As per ABARES, projection estimate lifted in December winter crop report on Wheat 25.5MT, Barley 11.1MT, Canola 5.5MT, Lentils 13.93MT, Chickpeas 528KT, Faba Beans 484KT, Field peas 238KT, & Lupins 524KT.

Grower selling on wheat has been generally slow this harvest with lower demand for export and lower grower engagement, however recent weather events in SA & VIC have protein spreads increase due to majority of wheat being harvested falling into ASW/APW range.

In chickpeas, demand for new crop Australian chickpeas is currently at a standstill, with little demand from any destination. No price parity into Pakistan, Bangladesh with limited interest and Nepal completely absent from trade.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian Kaspa Peas although with significant jump to Canadian YP due to India relaxing import restrictions, we hope to see some market reaction from China. We are observing demand for Sorghum (old crop) which trading at U$ 350/mt levels to CNF China major ports & no firm interest coming for Sorghum (new crop) as we heard trade offers at U$330/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers for March/April shipments. On Australian barley facing competition with Argentina & Russian barley, we heard trade offers for Australian barley at U$270/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.

In Pakistan, observing minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils, as we heard NIP1/HAL1 trade offers at U$730/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Jan/Feb/March shipments. Some business earlier this week reported at U$720-725 levels CFR Karachi.

In India, no firm demand coming for Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at U$720/mt levels to Kolkata in containers. We observed some small activity’s in faba beans over last week, which is trading at U$440/mt levels to Kolkata in containers.

Recently, India removed import duty on yellow peas to nil from 50% & allows import till 31st March 2024. More on next market report on market reactions and demand. Currently buyers and sellers are scoping trade direction and price discovery underway.

In Nepal, no major trade acitivity happening at the moment for lentils, desi chickpeas & canola seeds

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/11/2023)

Global wheat markets are hampered by the large export capacity of Black Sea grain producers, which results in a surge of cheap Russian/Ukrainian wheat shipments.

Australian wheat markets are experiencing lower prices due to harvest pressure and a stronger Australian dollar. Limited containerized export sales to SE Asia with pricing being quote APW USD 305 to USD 310 pmt – CFR major SEA ports & APH2 being quoted sub-USD 380’s pmt vs competing CWRS in bulk cheaper under USD 350’s into SEA.

In Desi chickpeas, sluggish demand for new crop coming from offshore market. Containerized business demand is limited for all destinations and no strong inclination of Australian sellers to sell at lower values. Keeps the market illiquid.

In lentils, VIC & SA lentils price roses due to market shorts to fill in early packing slots, despite of rise in Australian dollar since last week. VIC harvest deliveries have started.

In India, we are observing not much trade demand for Australia red lentils from the market. We heard trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 to USD 725 levels in containers with no buying interest. Limited trades reported last 2 weeks between USD 715 to USD 720 pmt mark.

In Pakistan, observing minimal demands for Australian lentils. As we heard the Nipper/Hallmark#1 trade offers USD 725/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we are getting enquiries for canola min.42% & also we heard that GM canola min.42% traded at USD 545/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers.

In Nepal, no major demands for Australia lentils & desi chickpeas. While in canola we see couple of inquiries last week with limited buyer interest. Buyers seeking values of USD 580+/- CFR Birganj with limited trades reported last week, Australia market remains strong with ongoing VIC canola seed harvest values not allowing any trade margins at these CFR values.

In Egypt, sluggish demand for Faba beans & lentils since last 3 weeks. We heard that Faba beans trade offers at USD 425/mt to CFR Damietta, though limited selling interest at these values and currency availability continuing issue with this destination.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (10/11/2023)

The market expects wheat world ending stocks to be somewhat lower for the 2023/24 season due to dry seasonal circumstances in Australia and Argentina. Russian production is likely to climb from 85 million mt to 93 million mt, as the Russian government has revised its projection as per USDA.

In Wheat, Australian wheat markets this week have been experiencing lower bids ranging from A$5 to A$10 per tonne on soft wheats compared to last week due to harvest progress. Exporters are actively chasing APH where spreads have increased to more than A$120 pmt to APW and A$100 pmt to AH2 in some procurement arcs. QLD harvest is nearly complete and NNSW should finish in 1-2weeks, central and southern NSW harvest deliveries will continue to maintain pressure on pricing and we expect pricing to fall away another A$10-A$15 on account of harvest pressure in southern NSW and VIC. China supposedly continues its purchasing of APW wheat at/sub U$300 CFR in bulk. SEA containers offered indicatively APW – U$300-U$305+/- main ports; APH2 – U$380+/- main ports.

In Chickpeas, harvest seems complete in QLD/NNSW, demand remains weak for Australian desi chickpeas, only Bangladesh is a limited volume buyer as UAE, Pakistan & Nepal buyers are not participating due to premium prices . New crop CHK1 (23/24) indications CFR Karachi/Chittagong – USD 670 pmt.

In Pakistan, demand for Australian red lentils was firmer this week due to anticipated lack of availability of stock for Ramadan & buyers were actively participating. We heard Nipper/Hallmark#1 traded at U$720/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Dec/Jan shipments. As local market is upside & also USD/PKR is supporting.

In India, minimal demand & buyers showing limited interest for Australian red lentils at the moment as we learned govt. bodies continue to tender and purchase is doing procurements to commerce domestic market due low production & election year on cards. We heard trade offers yesterday for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$725/mt levels to Kolkata in containers, some limited trades also reported U$700/mt for last week.

In Bangladesh, no major movements at the movement since last week trade of desi chickpeas no.1 at U$650/mt levels & also Kyabra is offering at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. We see no major upside or significant demand levels and market continues to trade sideways on limited volumes.

In Nepal, no such major movement in Australian desi chickpeas & red lentils as buyers are willing to wait due to premium rates. CHK1(23/24) bid/offer spread at U$45 pmt CFR Birgunj; Australia canola seed still no demand as still at +U$50 pmt disparity to cheaper origins.

In Egypt, market has slowed down a bit on lentils, fabas and lupins as we heard trade offers that FABA Beans are offering below at U$420/mt & Nipper/Hallmark#1 at below U$720/mt in containers.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian pulses in containers. KASPA Peas no demand. We heard Russian yellow peas offering at U$330/mt at CFR China ports with lack of buying interest. In Barley, buyers getting offers at U$270/mt levels to CFR China major port. Sorghum sees limited demand.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/11/2023)

Over the last week, the global market wheat market remains unchanged.

Australian wheat local market prices remain unchanged, however in some regions where harvest is near about to finish, selling pressure is visible. In QLD prices are about A$5/mt less than week ago; WA harvest has picked up with reduction in price about A$10/mt, while Northern NSW harvest on full swing experienced lower price about A$15/mt; SA, Victoria & Southern NSW will be in peak harvest in 2-3 weeks. With harvest in Victoria commencing, wheat is now generally looking workable in containers to SE Asia although buyers also keeping a watch on harvest pressure to engage in coverage for 1st quarter of 2024.

On Barley, prices remain sluggish. China is allegedly purchasing more feed barley, and quality for this harvest is generally good with more Malt grade. This is causing feed/malt premiums to reduce.

Desi chickpeas harvest in NSW is on in full swing with bids from buyers remaining strong to upcountry packing sites. Destinations such as Pakistan, Nepal & UAE remain out for new crop due to significant spreads on old crop 1’s & CHKM vs new crop CHK1. At the moment only Bangladesh remains serious buyer for new crop CHK1 but with limited opportunities to trade them given the currency payment issues.

Lentils demand remains constant although pricing has been impacted by sluggish demand in India and harvest selling pressure in SA. Quality is generally anticipated to be good for this harvest in contrast to last year’s crop with significant quality issues. Victoria will harvest in 2-3 weeks with most packing sites now committed for Dec period and shipping window now spreading to Jan/Feb. Bulk shippers also gearing up with expected 5-6 vessels to be loaded 1st qtr 2024.

In Bangladesh, we are noticing trade some movements for desi chickpeas & buyers are actively participating in cover the stock before Ramadan 2024. We heard for CHK1 traded at U$650 to U$670/mt levels CFR Chittagong in containers (Nov/Dec) & also we heard trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$710-U$720/mt levels CFR Chittagong; for Kyabra desi we heard trade offers at U$690/mt levels CFR Chittagong for Nov/Dec in containers.

In China, no major demand for Kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas trade offers at U$330/mt levels CFR major China ports in containers. Australian sorghum demand losing ground at U$360/mt levels against cheaper US Sorghum trade offers at U$320/mt levels (all prices CFR major China ports). As we learned that domestic sorghum prices are more competitive & that hits imported sorghum very hard his year; For Australian barley, we heard trade offers at U$270/mt levels (CFR major China ports) with limited buying interest. Container demand in China generally remains sluggish.

In India, minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard the trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 – U$705-U$710/mt CFR Kolkata in containers with no buying interest.

In Pakistan, lack of trade demand for desi chickpeas & nipper/hallmark#1. We heard trade offers CHKM old crop at U$545/mt levels CFR Karachi & Also we heard Nipper/Hallamark#1 trade offers at U$710/mt CFR Karachi. Local domestic Karachi market price for CHKM at U$505/mt levels & CHK1 at U$525/mt levels; For Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at 690/mt levels in bulk in vessel CFR Karachi.

In Nepal, no major movement in the market for desi chickpeas, Canola & Nipper/hallmark#1. Lack of demand at current values.

Export of lentils increased by 37% & India remains top destination followed by UAE, Egypt & Bangladesh in September as per ABS.

Exports of Desi Chickpeas fell by 19.5% & Pakistan remains major sales destination followed by UAE & Nepal in September as per ABS.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (29/09/2023)

Global wheat prices were mostly under pressure last week, due to competition from Russia, low US wheat & a strengthening US dollar. The International Grain Council (IGC) reduced its projection for world wheat production by 1mm to from last month projection to 783 mmt. Australian wheat market remains stable during last week.

The last week has seen no change in the price of barley as Australia prepares for harvest. Since early August, new crop prices have increased by A$40 to A$80 per tonne due to lower production forecasts and resumption of Chinese demand.

In China, observing no firm demand for Kaspa Peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas & we are observing demand for barley at high U$280/mt levels as we learn that price is not workable for containerized business. For sorghum, we are observing price difference of U$10-15/mt against bids from the mkt.

In Pakistan, no major movement in the destination mkt & observing low demand for desi chickpeas. We heard CHKM quoted at U$600/mt to CFR Karachi in containers with limited buyer interest. As advise received from the market expert that in local market price of CHKM at U$500-505/mt levels.

In India, minimal sign of demand at the moment for Australian red lentils. We heard trade offers at high U$780/mt levels in containers. Again, India’s center extends the time period for stock limited for urad & tur to 31st Dec2023. Stock limit for wholesaler & big retailer reduced to 50MMT.

In Nepal, as of now relatively low demands for Australian canola seed & heard offers at high U$600/mt with limited buying interest. Also, we heard trade offers for Ukraine rapeseed at high U$560/mt. For desi chickpeas, heard trade offers at high U$615/mt levels & while Lentils trade offers at U$805/mt levels in containers.

The likelihood of this significant rainfall storm occurring next week is increasing, and the majority of models currently predict respectable totals (10–25mm) for central and southern NSW. Vic is in for 15 to 50 mm, with a few isolated spots displaying 50 to 100 mm. Eastern SA has 10-15mm on the radar, however the EP is only expecting less than 5mm, and WA is only expecting less than 5mm.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (22/09/2023)

Global pulses snd remains tight with all eyes on India Rabi crop planting to determine price directions.

An El Nino event was declared by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, a meteorological phenomenon that frequently results in hotter, drier conditions.

Upward swing in pricing across all soft commodities in Australia reflects drier conditions going into harvest with all buyers in cereals and pulses looking to get coverage on product.

Eastern states of NSW and Queensland have faced rapid drying of sub-soil moisture with onset of spring and no rains for the past 20 days and nothing in forecast for the next 2 weeks. Central Queensland harvest currently underway initial advisories showing lower yields across wheat and chickpeas due to lack of finishing rains – we hope to learn more as harvest progresses in the next 10 days. With the current dry conditions, we expect it to be similar with yields lower come harvest in SE Qld and NNSW. Space to watch.

Victoria and South Australia – currently crops are holding up, however with increased heat from this week, there is potential of yield losses.

In Barley, local market price is getting support from Chinese’s demand, lower production & weather conditions.

Export of feed barley declined by 27% & malting barley rise by 60%. Top volume buyers for feed barley are Thailand followed by Qatar & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Peru in July as per ABS.

Export of sorghum down by 26%; top importers are China & Japan in July as per ABS.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS against cheaper Russian yellow peas are traded at U$360 pmt levels in containers; For sorghum, as we heard demand at U$360 pmt levels.

In India, we are observing demand of Australia lentils is down after two weeks surge. We heard trade offers of Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) new crop23/24 at high U$780 pmt levels in containers.

In Pakistan, market of Australian CHKM is relatively low demand at the moment. We heard CHKM traded at U$560 pmt to CFR Karachi (Oct/Nov) in containers & as we are observing the local market price for CHKM at U$ 510-515 levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for new crop23/24 of desi chickpeas. We heard trade offers for CHK1 at U$670 pmt levels & Kyabara at U$720 pmt levels in containers.

Bangladesh is looking to get coverage for Ramadan 2024. Vessels not offered yet; however, traders are actively chasing chickpeas in Central Queensland where harvest has started with pricing upwards of A$900 pmt track. This is keeping any container business not worthwhile pursuing due to lack of destination buying demand at these levels currently.

Export of Canola up by 31%; top volume buyers are Japan, Pakistan, Belgium & Bangladesh in July as per ABS.

In Nepal, Australian canola 44% is struggling to find a place in market against cheaper Ukraine rapeseed. We heard trade offers for Australian canola seed at U$600 pmt levels in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (14/09/2023)

Gobal wheat production projected for 2023/24 season were reduced by 6MMT to 787MMT. Global outlook for 2023/24 season has been predicted to be 3MMT lower than previous to 2022/23 season as per USDA.

Global wheat production has been expected to decrease due to significant reduction in Australia & Canadian crop output – 3MMT & 2MMT as well as reductions of 1MMT in Argentina & EU production as per USDA.

Exports of containerized wheat declined by 9%; China, Taiwan & Thailand are top buyers & Exports of Bulk wheat increased by 6%; Indonesia, China & Philippines are volume buyers in July as per ABS.

While ABARES’ September crop projection for Australia showed a decline in wheat production, it increased barley production by 6.7% to 10.5MT but still a 26% decrease from the previous season and growing optimism about Chinese demand is keeping upward pressure on prices.

India, demand of Australian red lentils is getting firmer as festival seasons are nearby. We heard the Nipper/Hallmark#1 (old crop) traded at U$790 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Exports of Lentils down by 18%; India remains top export destination followed by UAE, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Nepal in July as per ABS.

Exports of Desi Chickpeas declined by 41%; Pakistan is top buyers followed by UAE, Thailand, Nepal & Canada in July as per ABS.

Pakistan, since from last week trade demand for desi chickpeas remains minimal. We heard in local market offers for CHKM at high U$530 pmt levels as PKR currency getting firmer against USD.

As per market experts Pakistan importers are getting good quality grade of Russian desi chickpeas at U$600 pmt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, after sudden surge in demand for desi chickpeas for two weeks, afterwards we are observing minimal demand.

In Nepal, still no export price parity for Australia GM Canola; For desi chickpeas, we heard CHKM traded at high U$630 pmt levels to CFR Birganj in Oct/Nov Shipment in containers.

In China, minimal trade demand for Kaspa peas, we heard Kaspa peas traded at U$370 pmt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.

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