The market expects wheat world ending stocks to be somewhat lower for the 2023/24 season due to dry seasonal circumstances in Australia and Argentina. Russian production is likely to climb from 85 million mt to 93 million mt, as the Russian government has revised its projection as per USDA.
In Wheat, Australian wheat markets this week have been experiencing lower bids ranging from A$5 to A$10 per tonne on soft wheats compared to last week due to harvest progress. Exporters are actively chasing APH where spreads have increased to more than A$120 pmt to APW and A$100 pmt to AH2 in some procurement arcs. QLD harvest is nearly complete and NNSW should finish in 1-2weeks, central and southern NSW harvest deliveries will continue to maintain pressure on pricing and we expect pricing to fall away another A$10-A$15 on account of harvest pressure in southern NSW and VIC. China supposedly continues its purchasing of APW wheat at/sub U$300 CFR in bulk. SEA containers offered indicatively APW – U$300-U$305+/- main ports; APH2 – U$380+/- main ports.
In Chickpeas, harvest seems complete in QLD/NNSW, demand remains weak for Australian desi chickpeas, only Bangladesh is a limited volume buyer as UAE, Pakistan & Nepal buyers are not participating due to premium prices . New crop CHK1 (23/24) indications CFR Karachi/Chittagong – USD 670 pmt.
In Pakistan, demand for Australian red lentils was firmer this week due to anticipated lack of availability of stock for Ramadan & buyers were actively participating. We heard Nipper/Hallmark#1 traded at U$720/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Dec/Jan shipments. As local market is upside & also USD/PKR is supporting.
In India, minimal demand & buyers showing limited interest for Australian red lentils at the moment as we learned govt. bodies continue to tender and purchase is doing procurements to commerce domestic market due low production & election year on cards. We heard trade offers yesterday for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$725/mt levels to Kolkata in containers, some limited trades also reported U$700/mt for last week.
In Bangladesh, no major movements at the movement since last week trade of desi chickpeas no.1 at U$650/mt levels & also Kyabra is offering at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. We see no major upside or significant demand levels and market continues to trade sideways on limited volumes.
In Nepal, no such major movement in Australian desi chickpeas & red lentils as buyers are willing to wait due to premium rates. CHK1(23/24) bid/offer spread at U$45 pmt CFR Birgunj; Australia canola seed still no demand as still at +U$50 pmt disparity to cheaper origins.
In Egypt, market has slowed down a bit on lentils, fabas and lupins as we heard trade offers that FABA Beans are offering below at U$420/mt & Nipper/Hallmark#1 at below U$720/mt in containers.
In China, lackluster demand for Australian pulses in containers. KASPA Peas no demand. We heard Russian yellow peas offering at U$330/mt at CFR China ports with lack of buying interest. In Barley, buyers getting offers at U$270/mt levels to CFR China major port. Sorghum sees limited demand.
Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only
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