Wheat is on decline again this week on US harvest pressure selling and improved/factored in crop for Russia(vicinity of 81-83mmt) & Ukraine(vicinity of 20-21.5mmt). Australian wheat prices followed global cues and declined up to A$9/MT this week. Weak demand from the SEA region with APW being quoted below U$295/MT; APH2 quoted below U$370/MT to CFR SEA major ports.
Australian barley is uncompetitive as domestic values have remained strong on back of limited stocks and dryness in SA & WA. CFR China ports heard quoted at U$280/MT but trade offers from other origins, such as Ukraine barley – U$255/MT; French barley below U$270/MT, & hearing trade reported of Russian barley above U$250/MT in bulk.
China demand across all commodities is sluggish; low consumptive demand and summer heat partly to blame. The demand for Australian sorghum remains stable with trade offers quoted at U$300/MT to CNF major Chinese ports (Jul/Aug). A few trades have been reported at U$295/MT to CFR Tianjin (Jul/Aug) in containers but very limited interest from buyers as they start receiving US sorghum and ample availability of stock limits trade margins.
China’s mung bean market is currently quiet, with spot market prices rising despite a drop in Chinese buyer demand. Trade offers are quoted for Australian GMB-P grade at U$980/MT to CFR Qingdao in containers. Buyers though are reluctant to purchase due to expectations that summer consumptive demand is waning.
Indian pulses markets have remained flat this week after a few weeks of price appreciation. The new Indian government has settled in post elections and traders now look for cues on market demand and government positions. India’s desi chickpeas market is experiencing a sideways trend, with trade offers are being quoted for Australian desi chickpeas no.1 (24/25) – U$860/MT (Oct/Nov); U$835/MT (Dec/Jan) – CNF India ports in containers. Additionally, there are some trading activities on Australian red lentils, with trade reported at U$735/MT levels to CFR Kolkata (Jul/Aug) & forward trade offers quoted at U$715-720/MT (Nov/Dec) to CNF India in containers.
Recently Indian government announced attractive MSP for Kharif(Summer) crop procurement. Summer pulses crops like Pigeon Peas(Tuar) MSP increased 7.86% and Black Matpe by 6.47% over previous year signifying importance of pulses price directions to keep Indian farmers motivated to grow more pulses.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) advises June monsoon has stalled leading to 20% below normal June precipitation in central and NW India. Kharif crop sowing in June/July may be impacted by low rainfall in key northern states.
Pakistan, Egypt and Bangladesh markets have been on EID holidays this week and are opening slowly.
In Nepal, there are trade inquiries for Australian GM canola, but there is minimal buying interest in Australian lentils and desi chickpeas. Trade offers are being heard for NIP/HAL1 at U$795/MT and CHK1 at U$900/MT to CFR Birgunj, with GM Canola quoted at U$650/MT to CFR Kolkata.
Container supply chain is facing increased freight costs, with predictions suggesting ocean freight costs could reach Covid era peak by 2025 in China/Europe route due to red sea security situation and longer route via cape affecting transit as well as significant tranship port congestion. Ex Australia, we have seen rate increases implemented into Asia and SE Asia to the tune of 10-25% for Q3.
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