Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (10/11/2023)

The market expects wheat world ending stocks to be somewhat lower for the 2023/24 season due to dry seasonal circumstances in Australia and Argentina. Russian production is likely to climb from 85 million mt to 93 million mt, as the Russian government has revised its projection as per USDA.

In Wheat, Australian wheat markets this week have been experiencing lower bids ranging from A$5 to A$10 per tonne on soft wheats compared to last week due to harvest progress. Exporters are actively chasing APH where spreads have increased to more than A$120 pmt to APW and A$100 pmt to AH2 in some procurement arcs. QLD harvest is nearly complete and NNSW should finish in 1-2weeks, central and southern NSW harvest deliveries will continue to maintain pressure on pricing and we expect pricing to fall away another A$10-A$15 on account of harvest pressure in southern NSW and VIC. China supposedly continues its purchasing of APW wheat at/sub U$300 CFR in bulk. SEA containers offered indicatively APW – U$300-U$305+/- main ports; APH2 – U$380+/- main ports.

In Chickpeas, harvest seems complete in QLD/NNSW, demand remains weak for Australian desi chickpeas, only Bangladesh is a limited volume buyer as UAE, Pakistan & Nepal buyers are not participating due to premium prices . New crop CHK1 (23/24) indications CFR Karachi/Chittagong – USD 670 pmt.

In Pakistan, demand for Australian red lentils was firmer this week due to anticipated lack of availability of stock for Ramadan & buyers were actively participating. We heard Nipper/Hallmark#1 traded at U$720/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Dec/Jan shipments. As local market is upside & also USD/PKR is supporting.

In India, minimal demand & buyers showing limited interest for Australian red lentils at the moment as we learned govt. bodies continue to tender and purchase is doing procurements to commerce domestic market due low production & election year on cards. We heard trade offers yesterday for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$725/mt levels to Kolkata in containers, some limited trades also reported U$700/mt for last week.

In Bangladesh, no major movements at the movement since last week trade of desi chickpeas no.1 at U$650/mt levels & also Kyabra is offering at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. We see no major upside or significant demand levels and market continues to trade sideways on limited volumes.

In Nepal, no such major movement in Australian desi chickpeas & red lentils as buyers are willing to wait due to premium rates. CHK1(23/24) bid/offer spread at U$45 pmt CFR Birgunj; Australia canola seed still no demand as still at +U$50 pmt disparity to cheaper origins.

In Egypt, market has slowed down a bit on lentils, fabas and lupins as we heard trade offers that FABA Beans are offering below at U$420/mt & Nipper/Hallmark#1 at below U$720/mt in containers.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian pulses in containers. KASPA Peas no demand. We heard Russian yellow peas offering at U$330/mt at CFR China ports with lack of buying interest. In Barley, buyers getting offers at U$270/mt levels to CFR China major port. Sorghum sees limited demand.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/11/2023)

Over the last week, the global market wheat market remains unchanged.

Australian wheat local market prices remain unchanged, however in some regions where harvest is near about to finish, selling pressure is visible. In QLD prices are about A$5/mt less than week ago; WA harvest has picked up with reduction in price about A$10/mt, while Northern NSW harvest on full swing experienced lower price about A$15/mt; SA, Victoria & Southern NSW will be in peak harvest in 2-3 weeks. With harvest in Victoria commencing, wheat is now generally looking workable in containers to SE Asia although buyers also keeping a watch on harvest pressure to engage in coverage for 1st quarter of 2024.

On Barley, prices remain sluggish. China is allegedly purchasing more feed barley, and quality for this harvest is generally good with more Malt grade. This is causing feed/malt premiums to reduce.

Desi chickpeas harvest in NSW is on in full swing with bids from buyers remaining strong to upcountry packing sites. Destinations such as Pakistan, Nepal & UAE remain out for new crop due to significant spreads on old crop 1’s & CHKM vs new crop CHK1. At the moment only Bangladesh remains serious buyer for new crop CHK1 but with limited opportunities to trade them given the currency payment issues.

Lentils demand remains constant although pricing has been impacted by sluggish demand in India and harvest selling pressure in SA. Quality is generally anticipated to be good for this harvest in contrast to last year’s crop with significant quality issues. Victoria will harvest in 2-3 weeks with most packing sites now committed for Dec period and shipping window now spreading to Jan/Feb. Bulk shippers also gearing up with expected 5-6 vessels to be loaded 1st qtr 2024.

In Bangladesh, we are noticing trade some movements for desi chickpeas & buyers are actively participating in cover the stock before Ramadan 2024. We heard for CHK1 traded at U$650 to U$670/mt levels CFR Chittagong in containers (Nov/Dec) & also we heard trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$710-U$720/mt levels CFR Chittagong; for Kyabra desi we heard trade offers at U$690/mt levels CFR Chittagong for Nov/Dec in containers.

In China, no major demand for Kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas trade offers at U$330/mt levels CFR major China ports in containers. Australian sorghum demand losing ground at U$360/mt levels against cheaper US Sorghum trade offers at U$320/mt levels (all prices CFR major China ports). As we learned that domestic sorghum prices are more competitive & that hits imported sorghum very hard his year; For Australian barley, we heard trade offers at U$270/mt levels (CFR major China ports) with limited buying interest. Container demand in China generally remains sluggish.

In India, minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard the trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 – U$705-U$710/mt CFR Kolkata in containers with no buying interest.

In Pakistan, lack of trade demand for desi chickpeas & nipper/hallmark#1. We heard trade offers CHKM old crop at U$545/mt levels CFR Karachi & Also we heard Nipper/Hallamark#1 trade offers at U$710/mt CFR Karachi. Local domestic Karachi market price for CHKM at U$505/mt levels & CHK1 at U$525/mt levels; For Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at 690/mt levels in bulk in vessel CFR Karachi.

In Nepal, no major movement in the market for desi chickpeas, Canola & Nipper/hallmark#1. Lack of demand at current values.

Export of lentils increased by 37% & India remains top destination followed by UAE, Egypt & Bangladesh in September as per ABS.

Exports of Desi Chickpeas fell by 19.5% & Pakistan remains major sales destination followed by UAE & Nepal in September as per ABS.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (29/09/2023)

Global wheat prices were mostly under pressure last week, due to competition from Russia, low US wheat & a strengthening US dollar. The International Grain Council (IGC) reduced its projection for world wheat production by 1mm to from last month projection to 783 mmt. Australian wheat market remains stable during last week.

The last week has seen no change in the price of barley as Australia prepares for harvest. Since early August, new crop prices have increased by A$40 to A$80 per tonne due to lower production forecasts and resumption of Chinese demand.

In China, observing no firm demand for Kaspa Peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas & we are observing demand for barley at high U$280/mt levels as we learn that price is not workable for containerized business. For sorghum, we are observing price difference of U$10-15/mt against bids from the mkt.

In Pakistan, no major movement in the destination mkt & observing low demand for desi chickpeas. We heard CHKM quoted at U$600/mt to CFR Karachi in containers with limited buyer interest. As advise received from the market expert that in local market price of CHKM at U$500-505/mt levels.

In India, minimal sign of demand at the moment for Australian red lentils. We heard trade offers at high U$780/mt levels in containers. Again, India’s center extends the time period for stock limited for urad & tur to 31st Dec2023. Stock limit for wholesaler & big retailer reduced to 50MMT.

In Nepal, as of now relatively low demands for Australian canola seed & heard offers at high U$600/mt with limited buying interest. Also, we heard trade offers for Ukraine rapeseed at high U$560/mt. For desi chickpeas, heard trade offers at high U$615/mt levels & while Lentils trade offers at U$805/mt levels in containers.

The likelihood of this significant rainfall storm occurring next week is increasing, and the majority of models currently predict respectable totals (10–25mm) for central and southern NSW. Vic is in for 15 to 50 mm, with a few isolated spots displaying 50 to 100 mm. Eastern SA has 10-15mm on the radar, however the EP is only expecting less than 5mm, and WA is only expecting less than 5mm.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (22/09/2023)

Global pulses snd remains tight with all eyes on India Rabi crop planting to determine price directions.

An El Nino event was declared by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, a meteorological phenomenon that frequently results in hotter, drier conditions.

Upward swing in pricing across all soft commodities in Australia reflects drier conditions going into harvest with all buyers in cereals and pulses looking to get coverage on product.

Eastern states of NSW and Queensland have faced rapid drying of sub-soil moisture with onset of spring and no rains for the past 20 days and nothing in forecast for the next 2 weeks. Central Queensland harvest currently underway initial advisories showing lower yields across wheat and chickpeas due to lack of finishing rains – we hope to learn more as harvest progresses in the next 10 days. With the current dry conditions, we expect it to be similar with yields lower come harvest in SE Qld and NNSW. Space to watch.

Victoria and South Australia – currently crops are holding up, however with increased heat from this week, there is potential of yield losses.

In Barley, local market price is getting support from Chinese’s demand, lower production & weather conditions.

Export of feed barley declined by 27% & malting barley rise by 60%. Top volume buyers for feed barley are Thailand followed by Qatar & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Peru in July as per ABS.

Export of sorghum down by 26%; top importers are China & Japan in July as per ABS.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS against cheaper Russian yellow peas are traded at U$360 pmt levels in containers; For sorghum, as we heard demand at U$360 pmt levels.

In India, we are observing demand of Australia lentils is down after two weeks surge. We heard trade offers of Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) new crop23/24 at high U$780 pmt levels in containers.

In Pakistan, market of Australian CHKM is relatively low demand at the moment. We heard CHKM traded at U$560 pmt to CFR Karachi (Oct/Nov) in containers & as we are observing the local market price for CHKM at U$ 510-515 levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for new crop23/24 of desi chickpeas. We heard trade offers for CHK1 at U$670 pmt levels & Kyabara at U$720 pmt levels in containers.

Bangladesh is looking to get coverage for Ramadan 2024. Vessels not offered yet; however, traders are actively chasing chickpeas in Central Queensland where harvest has started with pricing upwards of A$900 pmt track. This is keeping any container business not worthwhile pursuing due to lack of destination buying demand at these levels currently.

Export of Canola up by 31%; top volume buyers are Japan, Pakistan, Belgium & Bangladesh in July as per ABS.

In Nepal, Australian canola 44% is struggling to find a place in market against cheaper Ukraine rapeseed. We heard trade offers for Australian canola seed at U$600 pmt levels in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (14/09/2023)

Gobal wheat production projected for 2023/24 season were reduced by 6MMT to 787MMT. Global outlook for 2023/24 season has been predicted to be 3MMT lower than previous to 2022/23 season as per USDA.

Global wheat production has been expected to decrease due to significant reduction in Australia & Canadian crop output – 3MMT & 2MMT as well as reductions of 1MMT in Argentina & EU production as per USDA.

Exports of containerized wheat declined by 9%; China, Taiwan & Thailand are top buyers & Exports of Bulk wheat increased by 6%; Indonesia, China & Philippines are volume buyers in July as per ABS.

While ABARES’ September crop projection for Australia showed a decline in wheat production, it increased barley production by 6.7% to 10.5MT but still a 26% decrease from the previous season and growing optimism about Chinese demand is keeping upward pressure on prices.

India, demand of Australian red lentils is getting firmer as festival seasons are nearby. We heard the Nipper/Hallmark#1 (old crop) traded at U$790 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Exports of Lentils down by 18%; India remains top export destination followed by UAE, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Nepal in July as per ABS.

Exports of Desi Chickpeas declined by 41%; Pakistan is top buyers followed by UAE, Thailand, Nepal & Canada in July as per ABS.

Pakistan, since from last week trade demand for desi chickpeas remains minimal. We heard in local market offers for CHKM at high U$530 pmt levels as PKR currency getting firmer against USD.

As per market experts Pakistan importers are getting good quality grade of Russian desi chickpeas at U$600 pmt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, after sudden surge in demand for desi chickpeas for two weeks, afterwards we are observing minimal demand.

In Nepal, still no export price parity for Australia GM Canola; For desi chickpeas, we heard CHKM traded at high U$630 pmt levels to CFR Birganj in Oct/Nov Shipment in containers.

In China, minimal trade demand for Kaspa peas, we heard Kaspa peas traded at U$370 pmt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.

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Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (31/08/2023)

Global wheat market remains unchanged over last week. Northern hemisphere harvest coming to a close and ample stock availability and shipment from CIS makes buyers comfortable on current supplies. Australian local wheat prices are bit higher than last week as outlook is getting drier. Grower’s bids are increasing gradually as result.

In SEA region, Australian wheat prices are still unable to find export parity against cheaper Black Sea & EU wheat. As we heard trade offers for Black Sea & EU wheat at around U$290 pmt levels for 11.5% SEA destinations whilst Australian wheat is north of U$300 pmt.

China purchased in 600,000 MT of Australian BARLEY since tariffs has been removed. There is a strong demand for BARLEY but due to high local rates containerized business is not workable at the moment. We heard trade offers at U$280 levels in containers.

In China, we are observing very limited trade demand for SORGHUM. We heard trade offers at
U$340 levels in container

In India, the current scenario as we’re observing that El-Nino factor (below average Aug monsoon rains) already created upswings in pricing of various Pulses, rice, sugar, Wheat & vegetables in the domestic market. Supply fears are creeping in as a result of lower-than-average monsoons going into Rabi crop planting starting next month.

In India, firm trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) old crop 22/23 traded to CFR Kolkata at U$765 pmt levels & also Canadian Crimson new crop 23/24 traded at U$780 pmt levels to CFR Nhava Sheva in containers. Australian local prices for both old and new crop remain strongly bid in both Victoria and South Australia with some good selling interest from growers at these numbers. With Canadian crop numbers seemingly coming in lower, we could possibly see further pricing upside should crop planting on Tur and lentils falter as a result of lower-than-average monsoons and resultant lower planting soil moisture.

In Pakistan, we heard CHKM quoted/traded to CFR Karachi at U$550 -545 pmt levels in containers for Oct/Nov Shipment period & heard trade offer for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) at U$750 pmt levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for desi chickpeas since last week, we heard trade offers for CHKM for old crop 22/23 at U$610 pmt levels.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS due to cheaper availability of Russian yellow peas at U$350 pmt levels in containers.

As per BOM Australia, El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. Cropping areas across Australia increasingly loosing sub-soil moisture and most areas require between 15-25 mm of rain in the next 2 weeks to sustain currently anticipated production numbers. Harvest setting in early in Central Queensland where harvest should start in the next week; south Queensland should start harvesting early Oct. We are generally expecting this year to be an early harvest on account of warmer than usual climate in Aug.

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Grain, Pulses and Oilseed Market Update (10/08/2023)

China lifted the trade tariff on Australia’s barley last week. In Australia’s local market barley prices increased by A$30 pmt, however, limited demand as traders works towards sales and more details. We heard trade offers for feed barley at high U$ 270 levels in China last week.

In Australia, local wheat prices increased by A$ 20 pmt, resulting in an uplift in futures.

Export of Australian wheat declined by 44% in containerized business – China, Taiwan & Vietnam were the top buyers; In bulk, export declined by 22% – Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam are volume buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

India might abolish the 40% import tax on wheat to control local pricing in the country. As per government there was no proposal to import wheat from India via a government-to-government deal. As per MOA&FW wheat production recorded 112.74 MMT in 2023 compared to 107.7 MMT in 2022. All eyes are on India at this moment as imports in excess of 9 MMT will be a big number to be built into the global trade balance sheet.

Export of Australian Chickpeas increased by 135% & Pakistan remains the top volume buyer followed by Bangladesh & UAE in June 2023 as per ABS.

In Pakistan, we heard a trade offer for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 525 pmt to the final buyer.

Export of Lentils dropped by 39% & India, Srilanka, and Nepal are top buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

In India, demand for Australian red lentils spiked briefly on Canadian crop concerns, however, expected to trade sideways on the back of consistent demand for the upcoming festive season and increased supply from Australia & Canada. We heard Nipper/Hallmark #1 traded at U$ 670 pmt to CFR Kolkata.

In Bangladesh, the market is not supportive of CHK1 & Nipper/Hallmark #1 no export price parity at the moment.

Global oilseed market price fluctuations are driven by a couple of key factors, with EU crop cuts & US weather & ongoing Ukraine rapeseed export concerns & renewed dryness concerns in Canadian prairies. In Australia local market canola old crop prices following European futures with an upswing of A$25 pmt after a similar drop last week, grower selling is limited for old crop canola and new crop canola due to ongoing concerns of dry spring and limited crop rain last few weeks in the east coast cropping regions.

In Nepal, Australian canola seeds still struggling to find export price parity against cheap Ukraine’s rapeseed.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/08/2023)

Once again global wheat market is driven by North America weather. As Black Sea tension has subsided, price of wheat has corrected but still Russian wheat remains cheap.

In Australia, local bids for APW1 wheat for old & new crop were down for a week due to the softer global market & lower demand.

According to the China Ag Ministry category 5 Typhoon Doksuri is likely to do significate damage to corn field & grain facilities. China is 2nd biggest producer of corn.

As per USDA crop progress report indicates that dry & hot weather impacted on US corn crop condition, which has continued to be declined.

Barley market remains idle with poor demand & buying interest. Australian growers are optimistic about China’s mkt. Waiting for outcome review of China on tariff by 11th August.

RBA hold interest rate 4.1% for 2nd straight month. Australian dollar on correction mode largely due to other global factors.

In China, minimal trade demand for kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas. We heard trade offers for Australian kaspa Peas at U$ 380 levels & Russian yellow chickpeas traded at U$ 345 levels this week.

In China, we heard trade offers for Australian sorghum at U$ 335 levels in containers.

In Nepal, we heard that Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded at U$ 700 pmt to CFR Birgunj in containers.

In India, no major demand arise for Australian red lentils. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded to CFR Kolkata at U$ 675 in containers & as heard from market experts that desi lentils are been sold in premium price than imported lentils.

In Bangladesh, demand is flat for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1). We heard trade offer at U$ 650-660 levels.

In India, no demand for Faba Beans. We heard FAB#1 traded in U$ 380 levels & less U$10 pmt FAB#2 to Kolkata’s local mkt.

In Pakistan, We heard trade offer at for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 530 levels to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we heard trader offer in local market for desi chickpeas at U$ 485 levels.

𝗗𝗠 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 & 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀, 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘀 & 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀

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Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (20/07/2023)

Black Sea corridor is officially expired Russia reject the renewal of the deal. The Ukrainian president is cooperating with the UN & Turkey to continue the deal. As per market experts, Russia’s call-off did not initially impact the global wheat market as much as it was anticipated, though with yesterday’s bombing of Ukrainian port infrastructure and some 50k wheat stock, there was an acute increase in the price of wheat & corn market. Russia’s intent seems to be clearly in the direction of punishing Ukraine and applying pressure on the west to give in to their demands.

Russia might abolish export duties for grains/oilseeds/ veg oils if shipped to so-called ‘Friendly nations’ So countries like Egypt could buy Russian wheat cheaper & India save $ on sun oil imports – wheat etc. to be used as a geopolitical weapon

Australian wheat price remains uncompetitive even after getting the best freight rates against cheaper Russian wheat in the SE Asia region.

In SE Asia, we heard that APW traded Sahathai for 304 levels & APH13 traded CFR Laem Chabang for 370 levels.

For Barley, Australian growers have to wait a little longer as China demands one more month to review the tariffs before final comment.

Australian feed barley export is up by 14% & malt barley is declined by 48% ; KSA, Japan & Vietnam biggest importers – of feed barley; Vietnam, Peru & Ecuador are the top importers in n the month of May per ABS

Export of Sorghum is up by 25%; China accounted for 98% of the total export in May as per ABS.

Locally, Kaspa Field Peas prices shoot up by A$ 20-30. We are observing strong trade demand coming from China. Recent trade offers reported for Kaspa Peas – CFR Tianjin at U$ 390 – U$ 395 levels

Global canola market is climbing so as Australian canola both old & new crop prices went is up by $40 pmt.

In Nepal, we heard a trade offer for Ukrainian rapeseed at U$ 560- U$ 565 levels. Markets have moved up by almost U$40 pmt in last 2 weeks. No export price parity for Australian GM Canola seed yet.

Australian red lentils demand remains flat at the moment in India. No significant enquiry.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offers for CHKM – CFR Karachi at U$ 545 – U$ 550 levels. The local market is up as PKR currency is firming up after the IMF loan and demand continues.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (13/07/2023) 

All eyes on black sea deal extension sets to expire on 17th July 2023, Russia threatened to quit deal & as Turkey President Erdogan want 3 months extension deal.  

As per RUSGRAIN union top importer of Russian wheat 22/23 season are Egpyt (11.9mmt), Türkiye (10.2 mmt), Algeria (3.3 million tons), Iran (3.1 million tons), and Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons).  

Australia wheat export increased by 9%; China, Philippines & Taiwan are top volume buyers in containerised business & again China is largest buyer followed by Vietnam & Indonesia in bulk in vessel business in May as per ABS.  

Australia canola unable to find’s the export parity in Nepal market against Ukraine’s rapseed. We heard trade offers at Ukraine rapeseed at U$ 520+/- levels – bulk in containers.   

Australia canola exports up by 56%; Pakistan, UAE & Japan are largest buyers in May as per ABS. 

Australia red lentils current demand from India is sluggish at the moment, market experts are anticipating that demand will pick up during festival & marriage seasons.  As we heard trade reported for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at CFR Kolkata U$ 670 levels & CFR Birgung (Nepal) U$ 682 levels, bulk in containers.  

Australia lentils exports up by 65%; India is largest buyer followed by Turkiye & Nepal in May as per ABS. Shipments still strong with upto 940k exported Jan,23 to May,23. Stocks seems to be tightening up with generally low-quality product remaining in VIC.  

In Pakistan, CHKM traded – CFR Karachi U$ 530+/- pmt in containers. Karachi local market price went up CHKM U$ 548 pmt & CHK1 U$ 555 pmt as per market advised received. PKR/U$ on recovery streak. Since the reports of the IMF standby deal, PKR gained Rs.8.50 to U$ in past few sessions. Will boost import parity. 

Australia desi chickpea exports up by 280%; Pakistan, Nepal & UAE were top buyers in May as per ABS.  

No export parity at the moment in China’s market for Australia’s sorghum. As we heard trade reported for CFR Qingdao – U$ 325 pmt last week bulk in containers. 

AUD/USD jumped 1.5% overnight on account of USD weakness, as a result of lower-than-expected US CPI data for June 23. This may limit further fed rate hikes. 

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