venedorJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains Market Update (28/06/2023)

Black Sea wheat continues to be cheapest source, keeping a lid on Australian exports and values

Black sea grain corridor expiring 18th July 23, less compulsion to renewal by Russia may lead to impact on grain markets. 33 mmt appx. exported via the grain corridor, may need to find alternate routes via river/rail/road options.

US weather markets in play on the boards. Better prospects of rain over the US Midwest now factored in however US wheat still at significant premium to Black Sea and may need to discount further.

Australian domestic wheat market observes strong demands for SFW from QLD feed markets. Export demand remains flat with exporters focusing only on front month shipment coverages which are easily purchased without pushing values upwards.

India, might look for a wheat import. As the federation of millers of India, wheat production 2023/24 forecasted is 101-103 MMT against the earlier wheat production 2023/24 forecasted by by the MoA & FW 112.74 MMT last month. Government holding appx 8.7mmt of wheat for market interventions post PDS and buffer requirements and with stock limits in place may be able to hold off imports for now.

A significant rain band cutting across NT and crossing over east into QLD and NSW may bring welcome rainfall to dry northern plains of NSW this week and next. May allow for those dry areas from Moree to Walgett to be planted – most likely wheat and barley acres and to a lesser extent chickpeas.

Several good rainfalls in WA, SA & VIC in June seems to have alleviated any moisture stress on winter crops and growing recent demand for urea ahead of rain events indicate that growers in many areas with good rainfall totals may now have confidence on winter crop prospects. Would it be a moderate El Nino! BOM forecasts indicate IOD likely to be positive only by Aug,23 lending to drier conditions so spring dryness may have impact.

Growers showing little interest to sell new crop 2023-24 production, though uptick in new crop APW values upwards of A$410 port have seen some participation by growers having good soil moisture profiles.


This week containerized trade price advise from market sources :-


SE Asia – APW traded in mid U$ 320s

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (07/06/2023)  

In India, the central government announced on June 2 to impose stock limit on tur & urad dal for wholesalers, retailers big retail chain, millers & importer to prevent stockpiling, control price inflation & speculations. It will be effective immediately until Oct 31,2023.  As per reports, under new order, wholesaler subject to a stock limit of 200 MT for each pulse, while retailer can hold up to 5 MT & Miller allowed to stock up to 3 months or 25% annual capacity. Importers cannot store pulses for more than 30 days.   

Current India’s pulses market is very quiet, heard trade offers for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) for CFR Kolkata – $670, CFR Nhava Sheva – $ 670 & CFR Tuticorin – $ 680 levels with limited buyer interest. 

Tur dal is short in India, as per the market experts India is waiting for the African Tur to available in the mkt. As per data shows that South Indian states have high consumption of Tur dal (Election year is near, so govt want to control price inflation by importing tur dal from the Africa & distributes at subsidised rates) 

No forthcoming demands coming from UAE, Nepal & Bangladesh for pulses yet. Heard that Nipper / Hallmark #1 trade offers at 665 levels in Bangladesh with limited buyer interests. 

In Nepal, no strong demand coming for Australian canola seed facing competition from Ukraine’s rapeseeds.  

Australia’s winter crop forecast decline by 34% to 44.9Mt in 2023-24. Due to the expectation of below-average winter and spring rainfall, yield prospects are anticipated to be below average.   

Barley, new crop forecast at 9.9Mt, decline 30% from 14.1Mt last year; On Wheat, new crop forecast at 26.2Mt, decline 34% from 39.2Mt last year; & Canola, staggering 41% dropped at 4.9Mt from current crop of 8.3Mt.  

As per Australian weather bureau, 70% chance this year of a El Nino weather & food producers across Asia are being threatened by the dry weather. Australia’s wheat, palm oil, and rice production in Southeast Asia are particularly at risk. 

Winter crop planting almost wrapping up in most Australia crop growing areas with some late planting expected on back of recent rains in NSW cropping areas. Eyes remain on weather with threat of El Nino at 70% as per Australia weather bureau. 

Australian wheat market continues to remain in flat mode as Black Sea origin continues to be offered at aggressive pricing to all destinations. 

Expectation of significant global supplies of wheat and continuing free flow of Black Sea wheat keeping lid on upside in pricing. 

Earlier USDA has projected that wheat projection for Australia new crop 29Mt in 2023-24; as per ABARES projection wheat new crop fall by 30% to 26.2Mt. 

China harvest rains on wheat crop may impact quality and quantity.  

Barley market, eyes on Chinese demand & on potential of tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. Mostly Australia domestic feed pricing in play at the moment. 

In Sorghum, Chinese demand will continue to be driving force. Most stock in SE Qld exhausted, Central Qld & Riverina harvesting and should cover Jul/Aug vessels, containers become uncompetitive. Prices increase on export shorts and slow harvest. 

Canola seed pricing remains under pressure on back of ample global supply, a surplus of veg oil stock and large expected carryout of rapeseed in Europe. Australian canola seed production to lower to 4.9 mmt vs 8.2mmt (22/23); 41% drop 

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