Agriculture

venedorAugust 31, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (31/08/2023)

Global wheat market remains unchanged over last week. Northern hemisphere harvest coming to a close and ample stock availability and shipment from CIS makes buyers comfortable on current supplies. Australian local wheat prices are bit higher than last week as outlook is getting drier. Grower’s bids are increasing gradually as result.

In SEA region, Australian wheat prices are still unable to find export parity against cheaper Black Sea & EU wheat. As we heard trade offers for Black Sea & EU wheat at around U$290 pmt levels for 11.5% SEA destinations whilst Australian wheat is north of U$300 pmt.

China purchased in 600,000 MT of Australian BARLEY since tariffs has been removed. There is a strong demand for BARLEY but due to high local rates containerized business is not workable at the moment. We heard trade offers at U$280 levels in containers.

In China, we are observing very limited trade demand for SORGHUM. We heard trade offers at
U$340 levels in container

In India, the current scenario as we’re observing that El-Nino factor (below average Aug monsoon rains) already created upswings in pricing of various Pulses, rice, sugar, Wheat & vegetables in the domestic market. Supply fears are creeping in as a result of lower-than-average monsoons going into Rabi crop planting starting next month.

In India, firm trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) old crop 22/23 traded to CFR Kolkata at U$765 pmt levels & also Canadian Crimson new crop 23/24 traded at U$780 pmt levels to CFR Nhava Sheva in containers. Australian local prices for both old and new crop remain strongly bid in both Victoria and South Australia with some good selling interest from growers at these numbers. With Canadian crop numbers seemingly coming in lower, we could possibly see further pricing upside should crop planting on Tur and lentils falter as a result of lower-than-average monsoons and resultant lower planting soil moisture.

In Pakistan, we heard CHKM quoted/traded to CFR Karachi at U$550 -545 pmt levels in containers for Oct/Nov Shipment period & heard trade offer for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) at U$750 pmt levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for desi chickpeas since last week, we heard trade offers for CHKM for old crop 22/23 at U$610 pmt levels.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS due to cheaper availability of Russian yellow peas at U$350 pmt levels in containers.

As per BOM Australia, El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. Cropping areas across Australia increasingly loosing sub-soil moisture and most areas require between 15-25 mm of rain in the next 2 weeks to sustain currently anticipated production numbers. Harvest setting in early in Central Queensland where harvest should start in the next week; south Queensland should start harvesting early Oct. We are generally expecting this year to be an early harvest on account of warmer than usual climate in Aug.

Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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venedorAugust 24, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/08/2023)

Global wheat production for 23/24 remained unchanged at 784MMT, over a 19MMT drop compared to 22/23 production due to decreasing Russian production as per IGC.

In Australia, before the arrival of the new crop, growers are concentrating on selling their old crop and clearing up their warehouse stock. Local wheat market trade demand remains strong for SFW & H2. New crop wheat port pricing has seen a jump last 2 weeks of between A$10-A$20 pmt, however grower selling subdued due to limited rain and increasing concerns on crop yields as a result.

As per PIRSA, South Australian crop production is estimated for wheat 5.08Mt, barley 2.17Mt, & canola 472K. Overall grain production 23/24 crop projected 8.8 MT compared to last year 12.8MT. Growers in the state remain concerned about the forecasted rainfall for late winter and early spring.

In Australia, in local market the price of lentil old & new crop was significantly higher last week due to seemingly tight global snd due to dryness concerns in Canada and India, with destination interest now significant. Demand continues with old crop price up by A$70 pmt & new crop price up by A$80 pmt.

In India, there is significant demand for Australia’s red lentils, we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at high U$755 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata (bulk in containers) for Oct/Nov shipments period & good number of enquiries from all the locations. As Indian market for lentil is up by U$80 pmt over past two weeks & as we heard old stocks are getting liquidated at U$720 pmt levels. Bangladesh demand is limited at this stage for red lentils although they will need to participate for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments when their available stocks start running low.

In Bangladesh, we are observing strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas, as we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for CHK1 at U$545-550 pmt levels, however limited trades heard as not many traders willing to sell at these levels without selling support from origin. Local Australian markets have increased grower bids however with limited selling interest in both old and new crop. Desi chickpeas demand in Pakistan remains subdued, last trades heard CFR Karachi at U$535 pmt (bulk in containers).

In China, trade demand for sorghum & barley is still very slow at the moment. We heard trade offers for Barley U$ 280 pmt levels & Sorghum at U$340 pmt levels.

On crop progress in Australia – Queensland remains dry with no forecast rain for next week. Low soil moisture levels may now start to impact grain production. Early harvest expected this year with Central Queensland expected to start harvesting mid Sep onwards with South Queensland expected to commence harvesting mid- Oct onwards. Northern NSW remains dry with now concerns of low production on planted crops, South NSW looks in good shape with recent rains and growers have applied fertilizer to crops to boost yields. Victoria is another state where all crops are in good to excellent state with continuing in crop rainfall boosting crop prospects. South Australian crops have been holding up well with some concerns on recent frost damage. In WA, GIWA has expressed concerns on dryness now impacting crop yields to the tune of 1mmt.

Disclaimer : Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only.

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venedorAugust 10, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses and Oilseed Market Update (10/08/2023)

China lifted the trade tariff on Australia’s barley last week. In Australia’s local market barley prices increased by A$30 pmt, however, limited demand as traders works towards sales and more details. We heard trade offers for feed barley at high U$ 270 levels in China last week.

In Australia, local wheat prices increased by A$ 20 pmt, resulting in an uplift in futures.

Export of Australian wheat declined by 44% in containerized business – China, Taiwan & Vietnam were the top buyers; In bulk, export declined by 22% – Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam are volume buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

India might abolish the 40% import tax on wheat to control local pricing in the country. As per government there was no proposal to import wheat from India via a government-to-government deal. As per MOA&FW wheat production recorded 112.74 MMT in 2023 compared to 107.7 MMT in 2022. All eyes are on India at this moment as imports in excess of 9 MMT will be a big number to be built into the global trade balance sheet.

Export of Australian Chickpeas increased by 135% & Pakistan remains the top volume buyer followed by Bangladesh & UAE in June 2023 as per ABS.

In Pakistan, we heard a trade offer for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 525 pmt to the final buyer.

Export of Lentils dropped by 39% & India, Srilanka, and Nepal are top buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

In India, demand for Australian red lentils spiked briefly on Canadian crop concerns, however, expected to trade sideways on the back of consistent demand for the upcoming festive season and increased supply from Australia & Canada. We heard Nipper/Hallmark #1 traded at U$ 670 pmt to CFR Kolkata.

In Bangladesh, the market is not supportive of CHK1 & Nipper/Hallmark #1 no export price parity at the moment.

Global oilseed market price fluctuations are driven by a couple of key factors, with EU crop cuts & US weather & ongoing Ukraine rapeseed export concerns & renewed dryness concerns in Canadian prairies. In Australia local market canola old crop prices following European futures with an upswing of A$25 pmt after a similar drop last week, grower selling is limited for old crop canola and new crop canola due to ongoing concerns of dry spring and limited crop rain last few weeks in the east coast cropping regions.

In Nepal, Australian canola seeds still struggling to find export price parity against cheap Ukraine’s rapeseed.

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venedorAugust 3, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/08/2023)

Once again global wheat market is driven by North America weather. As Black Sea tension has subsided, price of wheat has corrected but still Russian wheat remains cheap.

In Australia, local bids for APW1 wheat for old & new crop were down for a week due to the softer global market & lower demand.

According to the China Ag Ministry category 5 Typhoon Doksuri is likely to do significate damage to corn field & grain facilities. China is 2nd biggest producer of corn.

As per USDA crop progress report indicates that dry & hot weather impacted on US corn crop condition, which has continued to be declined.

Barley market remains idle with poor demand & buying interest. Australian growers are optimistic about China’s mkt. Waiting for outcome review of China on tariff by 11th August.

RBA hold interest rate 4.1% for 2nd straight month. Australian dollar on correction mode largely due to other global factors.

In China, minimal trade demand for kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas. We heard trade offers for Australian kaspa Peas at U$ 380 levels & Russian yellow chickpeas traded at U$ 345 levels this week.

In China, we heard trade offers for Australian sorghum at U$ 335 levels in containers.

In Nepal, we heard that Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded at U$ 700 pmt to CFR Birgunj in containers.

In India, no major demand arise for Australian red lentils. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded to CFR Kolkata at U$ 675 in containers & as heard from market experts that desi lentils are been sold in premium price than imported lentils.

In Bangladesh, demand is flat for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1). We heard trade offer at U$ 650-660 levels.

In India, no demand for Faba Beans. We heard FAB#1 traded in U$ 380 levels & less U$10 pmt FAB#2 to Kolkata’s local mkt.

In Pakistan, We heard trade offer at for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 530 levels to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we heard trader offer in local market for desi chickpeas at U$ 485 levels.

𝗗𝗠 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 & 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀, 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘀 & 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀

venedorJuly 20, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (20/07/2023)

Black Sea corridor is officially expired Russia reject the renewal of the deal. The Ukrainian president is cooperating with the UN & Turkey to continue the deal. As per market experts, Russia’s call-off did not initially impact the global wheat market as much as it was anticipated, though with yesterday’s bombing of Ukrainian port infrastructure and some 50k wheat stock, there was an acute increase in the price of wheat & corn market. Russia’s intent seems to be clearly in the direction of punishing Ukraine and applying pressure on the west to give in to their demands.

Russia might abolish export duties for grains/oilseeds/ veg oils if shipped to so-called ‘Friendly nations’ So countries like Egypt could buy Russian wheat cheaper & India save $ on sun oil imports – wheat etc. to be used as a geopolitical weapon

Australian wheat price remains uncompetitive even after getting the best freight rates against cheaper Russian wheat in the SE Asia region.

In SE Asia, we heard that APW traded Sahathai for 304 levels & APH13 traded CFR Laem Chabang for 370 levels.

For Barley, Australian growers have to wait a little longer as China demands one more month to review the tariffs before final comment.

Australian feed barley export is up by 14% & malt barley is declined by 48% ; KSA, Japan & Vietnam biggest importers – of feed barley; Vietnam, Peru & Ecuador are the top importers in n the month of May per ABS

Export of Sorghum is up by 25%; China accounted for 98% of the total export in May as per ABS.

Locally, Kaspa Field Peas prices shoot up by A$ 20-30. We are observing strong trade demand coming from China. Recent trade offers reported for Kaspa Peas – CFR Tianjin at U$ 390 – U$ 395 levels

Global canola market is climbing so as Australian canola both old & new crop prices went is up by $40 pmt.

In Nepal, we heard a trade offer for Ukrainian rapeseed at U$ 560- U$ 565 levels. Markets have moved up by almost U$40 pmt in last 2 weeks. No export price parity for Australian GM Canola seed yet.

Australian red lentils demand remains flat at the moment in India. No significant enquiry.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offers for CHKM – CFR Karachi at U$ 545 – U$ 550 levels. The local market is up as PKR currency is firming up after the IMF loan and demand continues.

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venedorJuly 13, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (13/07/2023)

All eyes on black sea deal extension sets to expire on 17th July 2023, Russia threatened to quit deal & as Turkey President Erdogan want 3 months extension deal.

As per RUSGRAIN union top importer of Russian wheat 22/23 season are Egpyt (11.9mmt), Türkiye (10.2 mmt), Algeria (3.3 million tons), Iran (3.1 million tons), and Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons).

Australia wheat export increased by 9%; China, Philippines & Taiwan are top volume buyers in containerised business & again China is largest buyer followed by Vietnam & Indonesia in bulk in vessel business in May as per ABS.

Australia canola unable to find’s the export parity in Nepal market against Ukraine’s rapseed. We heard trade offers at Ukraine rapeseed at U$ 520+/- levels – bulk in containers.

Australia canola exports up by 56%; Pakistan, UAE & Japan are largest buyers in May as per ABS.

Australia red lentils current demand from India is sluggish at the moment, market experts are anticipating that demand will pick up during festival & marriage seasons. As we heard trade reported for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at CFR Kolkata U$ 670 levels & CFR Birgung (Nepal) U$ 682 levels, bulk in containers.

Australia lentils exports up by 65%; India is largest buyer followed by Turkiye & Nepal in May as per ABS. Shipments still strong with upto 940k exported Jan,23 to May,23. Stocks seems to be tightening up with generally low-quality product remaining in VIC.

In Pakistan, CHKM traded – CFR Karachi U$ 530+/- pmt in containers. Karachi local market price went up CHKM U$ 548 pmt & CHK1 U$ 555 pmt as per market advised received. PKR/U$ on recovery streak. Since the reports of the IMF standby deal, PKR gained Rs.8.50 to U$ in past few sessions. Will boost import parity.

Australia desi chickpea exports up by 280%; Pakistan, Nepal & UAE were top buyers in May as per ABS.

No export parity at the moment in China’s market for Australia’s sorghum. As we heard trade reported for CFR Qingdao – U$ 325 pmt last week bulk in containers.

AUD/USD jumped 1.5% overnight on account of USD weakness, as a result of lower-than-expected US CPI data for June 23. This may limit further fed rate hikes.

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venedorJuly 7, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/07/2023)

In Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark) we are observing thin trade demand coming from India. Recent trade reported of Nipper – CFR Birgunj (Nepal) at 685 levels in containers.

Sight of relief to Pakistan, IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR 2,250 million (about $3 billion or 111 percent of Pakistan’s IMF quota). Heard offers for CHKM at 510-15 levels CFR Karachi in containers, though low demand in local Pakistan market and Karachi port arrivals of peas picking up.

Reserve Bank of Australia hold interest rate 4.1% in June to tackle inflation in country. AUD/USD rangebound 0.66c to 0.67c.

As per FAS USDA forecasted, Australia wheat production 29 Mt in 2023/24 (-10.7 Mt compared to last year). Export will drop to 21 Mt than last year 31 Mt. Barley production forecasted to 10 Mt in 2023/24 compared to last year 14 Mt & exports will up by 5.5 Mt due to China’s tariff review & uncertainly of Ukraine exports.

Despite of upheaval with Ukraine, Russia recorded 45 MMT export of wheat or 51% higher than last season 2022-23. Presently, Russia wheat is ruling the market with cheap pricing across the destinations.

Australian wheat followed somewhat the sharp falls seen on US wheat futures because of positive crop conditions. New crop APW multi bids down $20 -$30 pmt ; old crop $10 -$20 pmt various port zones, but with little selling interest from growers, market remains illiquid.

In Russian & EU harvesting of wheat is begun, with other grains & oilseed begin to harvest in next months. The major challenge for EU wheat exporters is the dominance of cheaper Russia wheat in the market. Might they have to target Morocco & China for larger export sales.

Black Sea vs Australian barley spread to Middle East markets at U$50 pmt currently and thus remains uncompetitive while Australia still waits for China barley markets to open.

Lack of export demand on barley with new crop bids $10-30 pmt down and old crop seeing $10-$15 drop in bids.

Sorghum markets continued to be subdued with harvest largely completed in SE QLD and NNSW and partial remaining in CQ. Reportedly traded in containers to Qingdao at USD 322 pmt with thin interest.

As per EU commission, EU rapeseed production forecast of 600Kt to 19MMT proved to be bullish factor for Australian canola seeds

Production cuts to US soybean and EU rapeseed caused a brief run on the bourses but given a heavy northern hemisphere supply side on oilseed and bearish demand, little upside potential. Ukraine rapeseed reported trade into ISC at USD 500 pmt levels in containers

As per USDA WASDE, Global rapeseed production remains unchanged this month at 87 Mt. Overall consumption forecasted 85 Mt, with marginal rise of 2%(y-o-y) for EU to 25.4 Mt. Overall export dip by 2% this month to 17.7 Mt due to fall in Australian exports. With decline in production, Ukraine & Australia exports are expected to drop by 15% & 38% respectively.

As per BOM withholding officially declaring EL Nino yet saying “sustained changes in wind, cloud and broadscale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observed”.

“This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Nino events.” The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October,”