Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/12/2023)

Global wheat market has been bullish due to spike in Chinese business of US wheat, they covered roughly 660,000 tons recently. Australian wheat markets have seen a boost due to the bullish strength on the boards. However, demand still lackluster and with expected slow export pace from CIS, there should be uptick in demand for Aus’s wheat in Q1.

As per ABARES, projection estimate lifted in December winter crop report on Wheat 25.5MT, Barley 11.1MT, Canola 5.5MT, Lentils 13.93MT, Chickpeas 528KT, Faba Beans 484KT, Field peas 238KT, & Lupins 524KT.

Grower selling on wheat has been generally slow this harvest with lower demand for export and lower grower engagement, however recent weather events in SA & VIC have protein spreads increase due to majority of wheat being harvested falling into ASW/APW range.

In chickpeas, demand for new crop Australian chickpeas is currently at a standstill, with little demand from any destination. No price parity into Pakistan, Bangladesh with limited interest and Nepal completely absent from trade.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian Kaspa Peas although with significant jump to Canadian YP due to India relaxing import restrictions, we hope to see some market reaction from China. We are observing demand for Sorghum (old crop) which trading at U$ 350/mt levels to CNF China major ports & no firm interest coming for Sorghum (new crop) as we heard trade offers at U$330/mt levels to CNF China major ports in containers for March/April shipments. On Australian barley facing competition with Argentina & Russian barley, we heard trade offers for Australian barley at U$270/mt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.

In Pakistan, observing minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils, as we heard NIP1/HAL1 trade offers at U$730/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Jan/Feb/March shipments. Some business earlier this week reported at U$720-725 levels CFR Karachi.

In India, no firm demand coming for Australian red lentils, we heard trade offers at U$720/mt levels to Kolkata in containers. We observed some small activity’s in faba beans over last week, which is trading at U$440/mt levels to Kolkata in containers.

Recently, India removed import duty on yellow peas to nil from 50% & allows import till 31st March 2024. More on next market report on market reactions and demand. Currently buyers and sellers are scoping trade direction and price discovery underway.

In Nepal, no major trade acitivity happening at the moment for lentils, desi chickpeas & canola seeds

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (10/11/2023)

The market expects wheat world ending stocks to be somewhat lower for the 2023/24 season due to dry seasonal circumstances in Australia and Argentina. Russian production is likely to climb from 85 million mt to 93 million mt, as the Russian government has revised its projection as per USDA.

In Wheat, Australian wheat markets this week have been experiencing lower bids ranging from A$5 to A$10 per tonne on soft wheats compared to last week due to harvest progress. Exporters are actively chasing APH where spreads have increased to more than A$120 pmt to APW and A$100 pmt to AH2 in some procurement arcs. QLD harvest is nearly complete and NNSW should finish in 1-2weeks, central and southern NSW harvest deliveries will continue to maintain pressure on pricing and we expect pricing to fall away another A$10-A$15 on account of harvest pressure in southern NSW and VIC. China supposedly continues its purchasing of APW wheat at/sub U$300 CFR in bulk. SEA containers offered indicatively APW – U$300-U$305+/- main ports; APH2 – U$380+/- main ports.

In Chickpeas, harvest seems complete in QLD/NNSW, demand remains weak for Australian desi chickpeas, only Bangladesh is a limited volume buyer as UAE, Pakistan & Nepal buyers are not participating due to premium prices . New crop CHK1 (23/24) indications CFR Karachi/Chittagong – USD 670 pmt.

In Pakistan, demand for Australian red lentils was firmer this week due to anticipated lack of availability of stock for Ramadan & buyers were actively participating. We heard Nipper/Hallmark#1 traded at U$720/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers for Dec/Jan shipments. As local market is upside & also USD/PKR is supporting.

In India, minimal demand & buyers showing limited interest for Australian red lentils at the moment as we learned govt. bodies continue to tender and purchase is doing procurements to commerce domestic market due low production & election year on cards. We heard trade offers yesterday for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$725/mt levels to Kolkata in containers, some limited trades also reported U$700/mt for last week.

In Bangladesh, no major movements at the movement since last week trade of desi chickpeas no.1 at U$650/mt levels & also Kyabra is offering at U$690/mt levels to CFR Chittagong in containers. We see no major upside or significant demand levels and market continues to trade sideways on limited volumes.

In Nepal, no such major movement in Australian desi chickpeas & red lentils as buyers are willing to wait due to premium rates. CHK1(23/24) bid/offer spread at U$45 pmt CFR Birgunj; Australia canola seed still no demand as still at +U$50 pmt disparity to cheaper origins.

In Egypt, market has slowed down a bit on lentils, fabas and lupins as we heard trade offers that FABA Beans are offering below at U$420/mt & Nipper/Hallmark#1 at below U$720/mt in containers.

In China, lackluster demand for Australian pulses in containers. KASPA Peas no demand. We heard Russian yellow peas offering at U$330/mt at CFR China ports with lack of buying interest. In Barley, buyers getting offers at U$270/mt levels to CFR China major port. Sorghum sees limited demand.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (27/10/2023)

The global wheat crop estimates for 2023–24 was reduced by 2 MMT to 785 MMT as per International Grains Council (IGC) which is 18 MMT lower than crop produced in the previous season.

The global wheat market has been bearish over the last week because to Black Sea competition. Russia agreed to export 70 million tons of grains, legumes, and oilseeds to China over a 12-year period. SEA wheat buyers now looking for coverage for Jan 24 to Mar 24 period with price expectations on APW at below U$300/mt CFR major SEA ports in containers. With harvest currently ongoing we are observing limited high protein wheat with majority of crop expected to fall in ASW/APW category.

In desi chickpeas, harvest deliveries in full swing in QLD/NSW but we don’t see any firm demand at the moment for new crop of Australian desi chickpeas as we learned Pakistan already had sufficient stock as of now, Nepal & UAE not keen to buy at premium price. Bangladesh slowly covering container demand for Ramadan 2024 requirements, with ongoing shipments allowing pricing to hold up for now. Market indications are U$640 to 650/mt levels CFR Chittagong.

In China, market is sluggish at the moment for Australian sorghum & as we heard trade offers at U$360/mt levels in containers with limited interest from buyer. In Australian barley, we heard trade offers at around U$270’s levels with lack of bids from buyer as Russian barley has been traded U$238/mt levels in containers. Lastly, we are observing that no China trade demand for Australian Kaspa Peas at the moment.

In India, we are observing no major trade activities for Australian red lentils since last week due to ongoing festival season & also we learned that buyers are willing to wait to get prices to soften up. We heard trade offer for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at U$730/mt levels for Kolkata in containers.

In Pakistan, after emerging as top volume buyer for Australian CHKM, demand has slowed down due to sufficient stock availability. We heard trade offers for old crop CHKM at U$525-535/mt levels & local market prices for CHKM at U$500/mt levels.

In Nepal, no trade activities due to going on festival season. As we head trade offers for CHK1 at U$670/mt levels to Birgunj in containers & also heard the Ukraine rapeseed traded at U$535/mt levels in Nov/Dec shipment in containers

In Egypt, we are noticing consistent enquiries for Faba beans. We heard trade offers at CFR Damietta at U$440/mt. With Victoria harvest delayed, earlier shipment requirements are being filled from QLD/NSW.

AUD/USD in range of 0.63/0.64 which is assisting export business.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (29/09/2023)

Global wheat prices were mostly under pressure last week, due to competition from Russia, low US wheat & a strengthening US dollar. The International Grain Council (IGC) reduced its projection for world wheat production by 1mm to from last month projection to 783 mmt. Australian wheat market remains stable during last week.

The last week has seen no change in the price of barley as Australia prepares for harvest. Since early August, new crop prices have increased by A$40 to A$80 per tonne due to lower production forecasts and resumption of Chinese demand.

In China, observing no firm demand for Kaspa Peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas & we are observing demand for barley at high U$280/mt levels as we learn that price is not workable for containerized business. For sorghum, we are observing price difference of U$10-15/mt against bids from the mkt.

In Pakistan, no major movement in the destination mkt & observing low demand for desi chickpeas. We heard CHKM quoted at U$600/mt to CFR Karachi in containers with limited buyer interest. As advise received from the market expert that in local market price of CHKM at U$500-505/mt levels.

In India, minimal sign of demand at the moment for Australian red lentils. We heard trade offers at high U$780/mt levels in containers. Again, India’s center extends the time period for stock limited for urad & tur to 31st Dec2023. Stock limit for wholesaler & big retailer reduced to 50MMT.

In Nepal, as of now relatively low demands for Australian canola seed & heard offers at high U$600/mt with limited buying interest. Also, we heard trade offers for Ukraine rapeseed at high U$560/mt. For desi chickpeas, heard trade offers at high U$615/mt levels & while Lentils trade offers at U$805/mt levels in containers.

The likelihood of this significant rainfall storm occurring next week is increasing, and the majority of models currently predict respectable totals (10–25mm) for central and southern NSW. Vic is in for 15 to 50 mm, with a few isolated spots displaying 50 to 100 mm. Eastern SA has 10-15mm on the radar, however the EP is only expecting less than 5mm, and WA is only expecting less than 5mm.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (22/09/2023)

Global pulses snd remains tight with all eyes on India Rabi crop planting to determine price directions.

An El Nino event was declared by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, a meteorological phenomenon that frequently results in hotter, drier conditions.

Upward swing in pricing across all soft commodities in Australia reflects drier conditions going into harvest with all buyers in cereals and pulses looking to get coverage on product.

Eastern states of NSW and Queensland have faced rapid drying of sub-soil moisture with onset of spring and no rains for the past 20 days and nothing in forecast for the next 2 weeks. Central Queensland harvest currently underway initial advisories showing lower yields across wheat and chickpeas due to lack of finishing rains – we hope to learn more as harvest progresses in the next 10 days. With the current dry conditions, we expect it to be similar with yields lower come harvest in SE Qld and NNSW. Space to watch.

Victoria and South Australia – currently crops are holding up, however with increased heat from this week, there is potential of yield losses.

In Barley, local market price is getting support from Chinese’s demand, lower production & weather conditions.

Export of feed barley declined by 27% & malting barley rise by 60%. Top volume buyers for feed barley are Thailand followed by Qatar & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Peru in July as per ABS.

Export of sorghum down by 26%; top importers are China & Japan in July as per ABS.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS against cheaper Russian yellow peas are traded at U$360 pmt levels in containers; For sorghum, as we heard demand at U$360 pmt levels.

In India, we are observing demand of Australia lentils is down after two weeks surge. We heard trade offers of Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) new crop23/24 at high U$780 pmt levels in containers.

In Pakistan, market of Australian CHKM is relatively low demand at the moment. We heard CHKM traded at U$560 pmt to CFR Karachi (Oct/Nov) in containers & as we are observing the local market price for CHKM at U$ 510-515 levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for new crop23/24 of desi chickpeas. We heard trade offers for CHK1 at U$670 pmt levels & Kyabara at U$720 pmt levels in containers.

Bangladesh is looking to get coverage for Ramadan 2024. Vessels not offered yet; however, traders are actively chasing chickpeas in Central Queensland where harvest has started with pricing upwards of A$900 pmt track. This is keeping any container business not worthwhile pursuing due to lack of destination buying demand at these levels currently.

Export of Canola up by 31%; top volume buyers are Japan, Pakistan, Belgium & Bangladesh in July as per ABS.

In Nepal, Australian canola 44% is struggling to find a place in market against cheaper Ukraine rapeseed. We heard trade offers for Australian canola seed at U$600 pmt levels in containers.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (14/09/2023)

Gobal wheat production projected for 2023/24 season were reduced by 6MMT to 787MMT. Global outlook for 2023/24 season has been predicted to be 3MMT lower than previous to 2022/23 season as per USDA.

Global wheat production has been expected to decrease due to significant reduction in Australia & Canadian crop output – 3MMT & 2MMT as well as reductions of 1MMT in Argentina & EU production as per USDA.

Exports of containerized wheat declined by 9%; China, Taiwan & Thailand are top buyers & Exports of Bulk wheat increased by 6%; Indonesia, China & Philippines are volume buyers in July as per ABS.

While ABARES’ September crop projection for Australia showed a decline in wheat production, it increased barley production by 6.7% to 10.5MT but still a 26% decrease from the previous season and growing optimism about Chinese demand is keeping upward pressure on prices.

India, demand of Australian red lentils is getting firmer as festival seasons are nearby. We heard the Nipper/Hallmark#1 (old crop) traded at U$790 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata.

Exports of Lentils down by 18%; India remains top export destination followed by UAE, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Nepal in July as per ABS.

Exports of Desi Chickpeas declined by 41%; Pakistan is top buyers followed by UAE, Thailand, Nepal & Canada in July as per ABS.

Pakistan, since from last week trade demand for desi chickpeas remains minimal. We heard in local market offers for CHKM at high U$530 pmt levels as PKR currency getting firmer against USD.

As per market experts Pakistan importers are getting good quality grade of Russian desi chickpeas at U$600 pmt levels to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladesh, after sudden surge in demand for desi chickpeas for two weeks, afterwards we are observing minimal demand.

In Nepal, still no export price parity for Australia GM Canola; For desi chickpeas, we heard CHKM traded at high U$630 pmt levels to CFR Birganj in Oct/Nov Shipment in containers.

In China, minimal trade demand for Kaspa peas, we heard Kaspa peas traded at U$370 pmt levels to CFR Tianjin in containers.

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Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (31/08/2023)

Global wheat market remains unchanged over last week. Northern hemisphere harvest coming to a close and ample stock availability and shipment from CIS makes buyers comfortable on current supplies. Australian local wheat prices are bit higher than last week as outlook is getting drier. Grower’s bids are increasing gradually as result.

In SEA region, Australian wheat prices are still unable to find export parity against cheaper Black Sea & EU wheat. As we heard trade offers for Black Sea & EU wheat at around U$290 pmt levels for 11.5% SEA destinations whilst Australian wheat is north of U$300 pmt.

China purchased in 600,000 MT of Australian BARLEY since tariffs has been removed. There is a strong demand for BARLEY but due to high local rates containerized business is not workable at the moment. We heard trade offers at U$280 levels in containers.

In China, we are observing very limited trade demand for SORGHUM. We heard trade offers at
U$340 levels in container

In India, the current scenario as we’re observing that El-Nino factor (below average Aug monsoon rains) already created upswings in pricing of various Pulses, rice, sugar, Wheat & vegetables in the domestic market. Supply fears are creeping in as a result of lower-than-average monsoons going into Rabi crop planting starting next month.

In India, firm trade demand for Australian red lentils since last week. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) old crop 22/23 traded to CFR Kolkata at U$765 pmt levels & also Canadian Crimson new crop 23/24 traded at U$780 pmt levels to CFR Nhava Sheva in containers. Australian local prices for both old and new crop remain strongly bid in both Victoria and South Australia with some good selling interest from growers at these numbers. With Canadian crop numbers seemingly coming in lower, we could possibly see further pricing upside should crop planting on Tur and lentils falter as a result of lower-than-average monsoons and resultant lower planting soil moisture.

In Pakistan, we heard CHKM quoted/traded to CFR Karachi at U$550 -545 pmt levels in containers for Oct/Nov Shipment period & heard trade offer for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) at U$750 pmt levels.

In Bangladesh, we are observing significant demand for desi chickpeas since last week, we heard trade offers for CHKM for old crop 22/23 at U$610 pmt levels.

In China, minimal trade demand for KASPA PEAS due to cheaper availability of Russian yellow peas at U$350 pmt levels in containers.

As per BOM Australia, El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. Cropping areas across Australia increasingly loosing sub-soil moisture and most areas require between 15-25 mm of rain in the next 2 weeks to sustain currently anticipated production numbers. Harvest setting in early in Central Queensland where harvest should start in the next week; south Queensland should start harvesting early Oct. We are generally expecting this year to be an early harvest on account of warmer than usual climate in Aug.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/08/2023)

Global wheat production for 23/24 remained unchanged at 784MMT, over a 19MMT drop compared to 22/23 production due to decreasing Russian production as per IGC.

In Australia, before the arrival of the new crop, growers are concentrating on selling their old crop and clearing up their warehouse stock. Local wheat market trade demand remains strong for SFW & H2. New crop wheat port pricing has seen a jump last 2 weeks of between A$10-A$20 pmt, however grower selling subdued due to limited rain and increasing concerns on crop yields as a result.

As per PIRSA, South Australian crop production is estimated for wheat 5.08Mt, barley 2.17Mt, & canola 472K. Overall grain production 23/24 crop projected 8.8 MT compared to last year 12.8MT. Growers in the state remain concerned about the forecasted rainfall for late winter and early spring.

In Australia, in local market the price of lentil old & new crop was significantly higher last week due to seemingly tight global snd due to dryness concerns in Canada and India, with destination interest now significant. Demand continues with old crop price up by A$70 pmt & new crop price up by A$80 pmt.

In India, there is significant demand for Australia’s red lentils, we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at high U$755 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata (bulk in containers) for Oct/Nov shipments period & good number of enquiries from all the locations. As Indian market for lentil is up by U$80 pmt over past two weeks & as we heard old stocks are getting liquidated at U$720 pmt levels. Bangladesh demand is limited at this stage for red lentils although they will need to participate for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments when their available stocks start running low.

In Bangladesh, we are observing strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas, as we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for CHK1 at U$545-550 pmt levels, however limited trades heard as not many traders willing to sell at these levels without selling support from origin. Local Australian markets have increased grower bids however with limited selling interest in both old and new crop. Desi chickpeas demand in Pakistan remains subdued, last trades heard CFR Karachi at U$535 pmt (bulk in containers).

In China, trade demand for sorghum & barley is still very slow at the moment. We heard trade offers for Barley U$ 280 pmt levels & Sorghum at U$340 pmt levels.

On crop progress in Australia – Queensland remains dry with no forecast rain for next week. Low soil moisture levels may now start to impact grain production. Early harvest expected this year with Central Queensland expected to start harvesting mid Sep onwards with South Queensland expected to commence harvesting mid- Oct onwards. Northern NSW remains dry with now concerns of low production on planted crops, South NSW looks in good shape with recent rains and growers have applied fertilizer to crops to boost yields. Victoria is another state where all crops are in good to excellent state with continuing in crop rainfall boosting crop prospects. South Australian crops have been holding up well with some concerns on recent frost damage. In WA, GIWA has expressed concerns on dryness now impacting crop yields to the tune of 1mmt.

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Grain, Pulses and Oilseed Market Update (10/08/2023)

China lifted the trade tariff on Australia’s barley last week. In Australia’s local market barley prices increased by A$30 pmt, however, limited demand as traders works towards sales and more details. We heard trade offers for feed barley at high U$ 270 levels in China last week.

In Australia, local wheat prices increased by A$ 20 pmt, resulting in an uplift in futures.

Export of Australian wheat declined by 44% in containerized business – China, Taiwan & Vietnam were the top buyers; In bulk, export declined by 22% – Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam are volume buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

India might abolish the 40% import tax on wheat to control local pricing in the country. As per government there was no proposal to import wheat from India via a government-to-government deal. As per MOA&FW wheat production recorded 112.74 MMT in 2023 compared to 107.7 MMT in 2022. All eyes are on India at this moment as imports in excess of 9 MMT will be a big number to be built into the global trade balance sheet.

Export of Australian Chickpeas increased by 135% & Pakistan remains the top volume buyer followed by Bangladesh & UAE in June 2023 as per ABS.

In Pakistan, we heard a trade offer for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 525 pmt to the final buyer.

Export of Lentils dropped by 39% & India, Srilanka, and Nepal are top buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

In India, demand for Australian red lentils spiked briefly on Canadian crop concerns, however, expected to trade sideways on the back of consistent demand for the upcoming festive season and increased supply from Australia & Canada. We heard Nipper/Hallmark #1 traded at U$ 670 pmt to CFR Kolkata.

In Bangladesh, the market is not supportive of CHK1 & Nipper/Hallmark #1 no export price parity at the moment.

Global oilseed market price fluctuations are driven by a couple of key factors, with EU crop cuts & US weather & ongoing Ukraine rapeseed export concerns & renewed dryness concerns in Canadian prairies. In Australia local market canola old crop prices following European futures with an upswing of A$25 pmt after a similar drop last week, grower selling is limited for old crop canola and new crop canola due to ongoing concerns of dry spring and limited crop rain last few weeks in the east coast cropping regions.

In Nepal, Australian canola seeds still struggling to find export price parity against cheap Ukraine’s rapeseed.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/08/2023)

Once again global wheat market is driven by North America weather. As Black Sea tension has subsided, price of wheat has corrected but still Russian wheat remains cheap.

In Australia, local bids for APW1 wheat for old & new crop were down for a week due to the softer global market & lower demand.

According to the China Ag Ministry category 5 Typhoon Doksuri is likely to do significate damage to corn field & grain facilities. China is 2nd biggest producer of corn.

As per USDA crop progress report indicates that dry & hot weather impacted on US corn crop condition, which has continued to be declined.

Barley market remains idle with poor demand & buying interest. Australian growers are optimistic about China’s mkt. Waiting for outcome review of China on tariff by 11th August.

RBA hold interest rate 4.1% for 2nd straight month. Australian dollar on correction mode largely due to other global factors.

In China, minimal trade demand for kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas. We heard trade offers for Australian kaspa Peas at U$ 380 levels & Russian yellow chickpeas traded at U$ 345 levels this week.

In China, we heard trade offers for Australian sorghum at U$ 335 levels in containers.

In Nepal, we heard that Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded at U$ 700 pmt to CFR Birgunj in containers.

In India, no major demand arise for Australian red lentils. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded to CFR Kolkata at U$ 675 in containers & as heard from market experts that desi lentils are been sold in premium price than imported lentils.

In Bangladesh, demand is flat for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1). We heard trade offer at U$ 650-660 levels.

In India, no demand for Faba Beans. We heard FAB#1 traded in U$ 380 levels & less U$10 pmt FAB#2 to Kolkata’s local mkt.

In Pakistan, We heard trade offer at for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 530 levels to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we heard trader offer in local market for desi chickpeas at U$ 485 levels.

𝗗𝗠 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 & 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀, 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘀 & 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀

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