Grains, Pulses and Oilseeds Market Update (13/09/2024)

Australian wheat exports in containers up by 25.57% in Jul,24 compared to Jun,24, with major importers are Malaysia, Vietnam & Thailand & bulk up by 19.30% in Jul,24 compared to Jun,24, main buyers are Indonesia, Yemen & Philippines as per ABS. In SEA region, millers showing minimal interest on Australian wheat, having almost covered their demand, hearing offers for APW at U$280/MT; ASW at U$275/MT for (Nov/15Oct) to CFR SEA major ports, with limited buying interest.

In China, this week minimal trade activity for Australian red sorghum (SOR1), with business reported at U$285/MT to CFR Tianjin (S/O) in containers, & bulk offers quoted at U$290/MT (O) to CFR China main ports. No trade demand for Kaspa peas against cheaper YP from Russia & Canada offers at U$360/MT & U$380/MT to CFR China main ports. Hearing Australian barley offers at U$265/MT; RU Barley at U$225-230/MT & UKR Barley at U$240/MT to CFR China main ports (S/O) in containers. China imported shipments of Australian canola in June & July, as per ABS.

Pakistan’s desi chickpea market is experiencing strong demand due to a delay in vessel arrival, in local market desi chickpeas price surged to high U$1000/MT this week. As heard Tanzanian desi chickpea cargoes were traded at U$875/MT; Russian desi chickpeas were trading at U$880/MT; and Australian CHKM was trading at U$875/MT to CFR Karachi for Sep/15Oct shipments. Currently, there is less buyer interest for the new crop of Australian CHK1(24/25), which is quoted at U$810/MT to CFR Karachi (N/D). Minimal trade demand for Australian red lentils, with hearing trade offers at U$720/MT (S/O) to CFR Karahi in containers.

Indian pulse market is relatively slow, except for lentils, which are in high demand, particularly Australian red lentils, due to low stock availability at the ports. This week, NIP1/HAL1(23/24) traded at U$715/MT to CFR Kolkata (S/O) & new crop offers for NIP1/HAL1(24/25) at U$690/MT (N/J) to CFR Kolkata. Desi chickpeas domestic demand is dipped, with prices stands at INR 80, & buyers are waiting for price correction. Australian CHK1(24/25) in bulk offers quoted at U$850/MT (O/N) to CFR Mundra & container offers at U$840/MT (O/N) to CFR Nhava seva.

Bangladesh’s buyer interest in the Australian desi chickpea crop is low, with hearing trade offers in containers for CHK1(24/25) at U$850/MT (O/N) to CFR Chittagong, with no buying interest.

In Nepal, there is some interest in the new crop of Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas, with bid levels at U$700/MT and U$800/MT CFR Birgunj, considered too low given the high origination prices in Australia at the moment.

Canola exports dipped by 13% in Jul,24 compared to Jun,24 with key buyers is Japan & Nepal as per ABS. Hearing trade offers for Australian canola at U$650/MT; Canadian canola at U$640/MT; UKR rapeseed at U$635/MT to CFR Birgunj (S/O) in containers.

In Egypt, Australian sellers are offering new crop faba beans at U$465/MT (O/N) to CFR Damietta in containers, but there are no bids from buyers.

Disclaimer : Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (19/07/2024)

Container freight has become tighter due to equipment shortages, Asia transshipment port congestions and capacity reduction by shipping lines to manage the port congestion. Freight surcharges of up to U$300/teu-U$500/teu have been implemented to select long haul destinations and existing bookings are being cancelled by shipping lines on account of reduced capacity. Australian exporters & traders are being cautious on their export trade offers and with uncertainty on freight in Q4,2024 export trade liquidity on both current and forward new crop business is reduced.

Australian wheat is not in significant demand with SEA millers amidst abundant northern hemisphere supplies at lower prices. We have heard that APW quoted at U$290/MT; ASW at U$285/MT; APH2 at U$370/MT & AH1 trading under U$325/MT to CFR SEA major ports in containers. 

In China, there was some trade activity for Australian red sorghum, trading between U$285-U$290/MT – CFR Tianjin (Aug/Sept) in containers this week. Trade volume has been very limited with buyers in China now showing interest only at U$280/MT CFR Tianjin basis.

No demand in kaspa peas & green mung beans in China.

On Australian barley, sellers quoted under U$270/MT to CFR China major ports in containers with limited volumes trading high U$260’s & we have heard that Ukraine barley priced under U$240/MT to CFR China in containers this week.

Demand for Australian red lentils in India are limited, & trade flow of Australian desi chickpeas is slow. This week hearing current crop offers for CHK1(23/24) at U$870/MT; NIP1/HAL1(23/24) at U$710/MT for Aug/Sept period & forward new crop offers quoted for CHK1(24/25) at U$840/MT; NIP1/HAL1(24/25) at U$700/MT at CNF India (Nov/Dec) in containers. Some business reported of red lentils at U$700/MT this week. Heard that Tanzania desi chickpeas quoted at U$835-840/MT to CNF India (Aug/Sept) in container. New crop chickpeas sellers for bulk vessel (Nov/Dec) reportedly trading at U$825/MT CNF India port levels.

Following religious holidays, Pakistan market is slowly opening. Hearing trade offers CHK1(23/24) – at U$880-890/MT; CHKM at U$840/MT; NIP1/HAL1 at U$710/MT & Tanzania desi chickpeas quoted at U$860/MT to CFR Karachi (Aug/Sept) in container.

In Nepal, buyers showing lack of interest for Australian lentils, desi chickpeas & canola – hearing trade offers at U$770/MT; U$905/MT & U$665/MT to CFR Birgunj in containers & also hearing Ukraine rapeseed quoted at U$630/MT. 

Demand for Australian desi chickpeas, lentils, and red lentils is currently low in Bangladesh. Hearing offers for CHK1(23/24) at U$880/MT & kaspa peas at U$505/MT to CFR Chittagong in containers.

In Egypt, sluggish demand for Australian faba beans though recently some upswing in lupins trade has been seen. There has been limited container business to Egypt in the last few weeks as a result of longer transit and limited volumes of availability of both faba and lupins.

On the cropping front – most crops in Australia are doing well and have benefited from rains in late June and early July. Crop germination and tillering has been good in Queensland and NSW which now seems to be above average yielding crops. South Australia and parts of Victoria witnessed late and low volume rainfall in June which resulted in areas having patchy germination which may result in average to below average yields – continuing good weather and rainfall at regular intervals throughout the growing season will be crucial for yields to be maintained.

Disclaimer: Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (01/03/2024)

Demand for Australian wheat is significantly reduced due to cheaper offers from CIS origins into the SE Asia region. Futures continue to be trending lower everyday due to very competitive offers from Black Sea origins and an anticipated heavy northern hemisphere grain supply. However, since last week we have seen increased market demand from SE Asia flour mills – market participants figure the market now at or about to be at bottom. Forward purchasing intentions upto Jul/Aug shipment periods have been seen. APW1 yesterday quoted at sub U$275/mt – $280/mt levels; APH2 at U$335/mt levels to CFR SEA major ports.

Australia red sorghum is experiencing stable demand in China, with SOR1 trading between U$287-290/mt to major ports. Australian Sorghum crop looks to be larger than anticipated given good in crop rain, crops maturing well and sound quality. At this stage we expect Sorghum crop to be north of 2 mmt given the large planting in Central Queensland. ABARE report next week which will reflect crop forecasts.

Mung beans also seems to be growing well given ideal conditions of soil moisture and are quoted at U$975-980/mt to CFR Qingdao for April/May shipments.

Bit of demand now flowing into Kaspa/Dun peas from China and Bangladesh as a result of India extending duty free period for YP. Some business been done into China par/sub U$410 levels CFR China major ports and U$440 +/- into Chittagong.

Australian barley containerized business & bulk in vessel are trading at U$250-255/mt levels to CNF China major ports. It has remained sideways these values now for past 2 months. Barley is in good availability in Australia due to lack of domestic and export markets but China demand is lower/flat.

Pakistan’s market is experiencing slow demand for Australian red lentils and desi chickpeas as buyers have completed Ramadan purchases and awaiting shipments arrival. Recent trades of NIP1/HAL1 at U$690/mt levels to CFR Karachi in containers with small continuing demand. A bulk vessel also reported enroute which may impose price pressure on local market. Desi chickpeas demand from Pakistan remains quiet.

Indian domestic rabi crop harvesting is accelerating, leading to a slow demand for Australian red lentils, with forward cargo trading at U$685/mt levels to CFR Kolkata in containers as per market sources.

In Nepal, there is no significant trading activity for Australian lentils, Desi chickpeas, and Canola. We heard trade offers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$725/mt levels to CFR Birgunj in containers. Some small quantities of Canola seed have traded $570+ levels CFR Birgunj for Mar/Apr period.

In Egypt, market demand slow for Faba beans, as we heard trade offer at U$480/mt levels to CFR Damietta in containers. Longer transit from Australia(90+ days) as container vessels transit via Cape to Europe and reroute back to Damietta and USD availability in Egypt have hit recent demand as northern hemisphere faba supplies will kick in May/Jun onwards. A couple of bulk faba vessels yet to load ex Australia for which domestic Victoria accumulations bids are strong and thus keep containers from being offered at competitive values.

AUD/USD at the 0.65 mark is helping forward export business commitments, however we are witnessing slow demand from destinations across all commodities.

Australian east coast sub-soil moisture is good at this stage and Western Australia has also seen recent rain events – this has lifted grower planting intentions for the winter crop. Mar/Apr planting rains will be crucial to deliver a good crop planting. ABARE forecasts awaited next week 05Mar24.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (13/10/2023)

Australia harvesting of 23-24 crop has started with barley and some pulses already harvested in QLD/NSW& SA. VIC should start in a weeks’ time. Canola is being windrowed and harvesting will start with earnest in the next week. Wheat will be next. We should see an early harvest this season and should see all crop in the bin by end Nov/early Dec in the eastern states.

WHEAT:

Currently Australian wheat is still trading at a premium due to domestic market premiums in QLD/NNSW region as a result of feed demand.

Asian destination container market for wheat has started buying some Australian wheat for Nov/Dec period with demand for APW at sub USD305 pmt CFR SEA ports and ASW sub USD 300 pmt levels.

Exports of Australian wheat declined by 18% in bulk & 1% in containerized business. Indonesia, China, Vietnam are volume importers in bulk wheat & China, Thailand, Taiwan are top importers in containerized wheat in August as per ABS.

BARLEY:

As harvesting begins, Australian barley market remains relatively stable over past week. Feed demand in QLD/NNSW for deferred deliveries into Dec/Jan period is still strong and at A$100 premium to VIC markets. Harvested barley currently also showing good quality and making Malting grade – with a premium of A$40 being paid by buyers.

Exports of Australian feed barley down by 11%; Top importing destinations are Japan & Vietnam. While exports of malting barley increased by 23%; Top buyers are China, Mexico & Vietnam. Currently with Russian barley at around USD 260 pmt into China, Australian barley in containers remain uncompetitive into China which should change upon harvest pressure in a few weeks.

SORGHUM:
Exports of Australian sorghum is declined by 2%; China top buying destination in August per ABS.

In China, after long weekend mkt is opens up. Australian sorghum unable to find export parity against cheaper US sorghum.
PEAS

In China, no trade demand for KASPA Peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas that is traded at USD 355 pmt levels.

DESI CHICKPEAS:

Exports of Desi Chickpeas increased by 137%; Pakistan is major buying destination followed by Nepal & UAE in August as per ABS.

In Pakistan, at present market demand continue to be slowing down for desi chickpeas. They have adequate stock in the pipeline which should take them through till end of Nov. We are observing local market is struggling get going for CHKM as price at USD 480 pmt equivalent levels in local Karachi mkt, buyers thus abstaining from making any further purchases. As we heard the CHKM is offering at USD 570/mt (Oct/Nov) to CFR Karachi with no buying interest. PKR currency has been firming up last 2 weeks.

Bangladesh demand for desi’s is limited and sporadic with payment issues still keeping sellers in risk off mood for the destination. Pricing/offers have corrected almost USD 100 pmt from peak, though we expect Bangladesh to still participate in purchasing in next 45 days to build adequate inventory for Ramadan festivities.

Due to limited demand in export markets, Australian domestic bids have evaporated with only pipeline business being covered by exporters/traders.

LENTILS:

Exports of Australian Lentils increased by 16%; India is top buyer followed by Bangladesh & Sri Lanka in August as per ABS.

In India, we are observing some trade activities at destination market for Australian red lentils & this week prices have softened by U$30-35/mt. We heard Nipper/Hallmark#1 traded at U$700/mt to CFR Kolkata (Dec/Jan). We see consistent buyer bids at USD 680 – USD 690 pmt levels CFR to Indian ports which is parity business currently. However, with lower Indian stock levels but with an adequate import pipeline, any further upside may only be limited to Rabi crop issues if any going into harvest in March,24.

FABA BEANS:

Faba beans have started harvesting in QLD/NSW/VIC & SA. Consistent bids to growers to upcountry packers around A$440 pmt to $470 pmt levels for export – significant part of crop is also expected to be stored on farm for drought feeding in face of El Nino threat. Supplies seem adequate with goods yields being reported.

Consistent demand from Egypt at USD 450 pmt levels CFR Damietta for FAB1, we also observe market offers at U$410/mt levels to CFR Kolkata though.

CANOLA:

Exports of Canola declined by 15%; Volume buyers are Japan, EU & Mexico in August

For Australian GM canola to Nepal no export price parity against Ukraine rapeseed that is offering at USD 550 levels vs Australian parity sitting at USD 620+

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (21/06/2023) 

Global wheat market, dry weather condition in US crop region uplifted the international prices. However global prices still driven by ample supply of cheap Russian wheat. 

Australian domestic wheat market has uplifted prices for old & new crop due to weather conditions, strong demand for feed SFW1 is coming from north.   

India approved export of wheat to Nepal & broken rice to Indonesia, Senegal & Gamiba.   

Barley, Australian growers awaits from China to resolve the trade dispute in next two weeks & domestic market of malting barley has been quit. Export of feed barley fall by 27% & malting barley fall by 12% m-o-m basis in April; biggest volume buyers for Australian feed barley are Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Kuwait & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Singapore in April.   

Global Canola market experiencing bullish factor due to dry weather condition impacted on soyabean & corn crop in their development phase as per USDA. In domestic market Australian canola prices went up by $20-$40 pmt across both old & new crop. Australian Canola export drop by 46.26 % m-o-m basis & Germany, Japan & UAE were biggest volume buyers in April. Still Australian exporters not able to find market parity for canola seeds against Ukrainian rapeseed. 

Sorghum, China & Japan are the biggest volume buyers; Overall export up by 73% on m-o-m basis in April.  

No major demands coming for Australian red lentils from India; Pakistan continues to be volume buyer of Australia’s desi chickpeas.  

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 3 of the 4 criteria for development of EI Nino have been met; this year, there are more chances of warm weather event will occur. 

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