In Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark) we are observing thin trade demand coming from India. Recent trade reported of Nipper – CFR Birgunj (Nepal) at 685 levels in containers.
Sight of relief to Pakistan, IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR 2,250 million (about $3 billion or 111 percent of Pakistan’s IMF quota). Heard offers for CHKM at 510-15 levels CFR Karachi in containers, though low demand in local Pakistan market and Karachi port arrivals of peas picking up.
Reserve Bank of Australia hold interest rate 4.1% in June to tackle inflation in country. AUD/USD rangebound 0.66c to 0.67c.
As per FAS USDA forecasted, Australia wheat production 29 Mt in 2023/24 (-10.7 Mt compared to last year). Export will drop to 21 Mt than last year 31 Mt. Barley production forecasted to 10 Mt in 2023/24 compared to last year 14 Mt & exports will up by 5.5 Mt due to China’s tariff review & uncertainly of Ukraine exports.
Despite of upheaval with Ukraine, Russia recorded 45 MMT export of wheat or 51% higher than last season 2022-23. Presently, Russia wheat is ruling the market with cheap pricing across the destinations.
Australian wheat followed somewhat the sharp falls seen on US wheat futures because of positive crop conditions. New crop APW multi bids down $20 -$30 pmt ; old crop $10 -$20 pmt various port zones, but with little selling interest from growers, market remains illiquid.
In Russian & EU harvesting of wheat is begun, with other grains & oilseed begin to harvest in next months. The major challenge for EU wheat exporters is the dominance of cheaper Russia wheat in the market. Might they have to target Morocco & China for larger export sales.
Black Sea vs Australian barley spread to Middle East markets at U$50 pmt currently and thus remains uncompetitive while Australia still waits for China barley markets to open.
Lack of export demand on barley with new crop bids $10-30 pmt down and old crop seeing $10-$15 drop in bids.
Sorghum markets continued to be subdued with harvest largely completed in SE QLD and NNSW and partial remaining in CQ. Reportedly traded in containers to Qingdao at USD 322 pmt with thin interest.
As per EU commission, EU rapeseed production forecast of 600Kt to 19MMT proved to be bullish factor for Australian canola seeds
Production cuts to US soybean and EU rapeseed caused a brief run on the bourses but given a heavy northern hemisphere supply side on oilseed and bearish demand, little upside potential. Ukraine rapeseed reported trade into ISC at USD 500 pmt levels in containers
As per USDA WASDE, Global rapeseed production remains unchanged this month at 87 Mt. Overall consumption forecasted 85 Mt, with marginal rise of 2%(y-o-y) for EU to 25.4 Mt. Overall export dip by 2% this month to 17.7 Mt due to fall in Australian exports. With decline in production, Ukraine & Australia exports are expected to drop by 15% & 38% respectively.
As per BOM withholding officially declaring EL Nino yet saying “sustained changes in wind, cloud and broadscale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observed”.
“This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Nino events.” The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October,”
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