venedor0 commentsJuly 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (27/07/2023)

Global wheat production 2023-24 declined by 1.9 MMT from last month to 784.2 MMT or 19 MMT less than last year 2022-23 as per IGC.

Russia attacked Ukraine’s grain terminals in the Danube port, which resulted in wheat futures up by 8.5%, though profit-taking capped the surges. Corn futures are also up by A$10-15 pmt.

The domestic Australian wheat market went up by A$20-A$50 pmt for old crops. But still Australian wheat is unable to compete against cheaper Russian grain in the destination market. In the SEA region, we heard that the Vietnamese buying Aussie wheat at mid-US$ 310 levels in bulk vessels.

Eygpt Govt assured to local public that it have sufficient wheat stock after Russia walked out from the grain deal on 18th July. Egypt started signing an agreement with India to import wheat & acute for other multiple wheat sources such from the US, Bulgaria, Romania, France & Germany as per UkrAgroConsult.

India has banned non-Basmati rice exports. As they predicted acute shortage is on the way due to crop damage by heavy rainfall. India accounted for more than 40% of rice exports across the globe.

In China, minimal trade demand for Australian sorghum against cheaper US sorghum. We heard trade offers for Australian Sorghum at U$ 340 levels last week & trade offers for US Sorghum at U$ 315-320 levels.

Global oilseed markets are unpredictable due to high tension in the Black Sea and dryness concerns in Canada, which resulted in Australia’s old crop canola prices going up by A$5 pmt & new crop trading at a premium price of A$20-40 pmt, this past week.

In Nepal, no price viability for Australian canola. As we heard trade offers for Ukrainian rapeseed at US$ 545-550 levels for CFR Birgunj.

In India, there is no major enquiry for Australian red lentils at the moment & the local port stock price is relatively flat. As we heard the trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at U$ 690 levels for Birgunj.

In China, minimal trade demand for Australian Kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas at US$ 330 levels. KASPA PEAS traded CFR Tianjin US$ 380 pmt in containers.

In Nepal, as we heard the trade offer for Australian CHK1 at US$ 580 levels for CFR Birgung & Biratnagar in containers.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offer CHKM at US$ 540 levels CFR Karachi to final buyers & PKR currency is firming up.

𝗗𝗠 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 & 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀, 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘀 & 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀

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venedor2 CommentsJuly 20, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (20/07/2023)

Black Sea corridor is officially expired Russia reject the renewal of the deal. The Ukrainian president is cooperating with the UN & Turkey to continue the deal. As per market experts, Russia’s call-off did not initially impact the global wheat market as much as it was anticipated, though with yesterday’s bombing of Ukrainian port infrastructure and some 50k wheat stock, there was an acute increase in the price of wheat & corn market. Russia’s intent seems to be clearly in the direction of punishing Ukraine and applying pressure on the west to give in to their demands.

Russia might abolish export duties for grains/oilseeds/ veg oils if shipped to so-called ‘Friendly nations’ So countries like Egypt could buy Russian wheat cheaper & India save $ on sun oil imports – wheat etc. to be used as a geopolitical weapon

Australian wheat price remains uncompetitive even after getting the best freight rates against cheaper Russian wheat in the SE Asia region.

In SE Asia, we heard that APW traded Sahathai for 304 levels & APH13 traded CFR Laem Chabang for 370 levels.

For Barley, Australian growers have to wait a little longer as China demands one more month to review the tariffs before final comment.

Australian feed barley export is up by 14% & malt barley is declined by 48% ; KSA, Japan & Vietnam biggest importers – of feed barley; Vietnam, Peru & Ecuador are the top importers in n the month of May per ABS

Export of Sorghum is up by 25%; China accounted for 98% of the total export in May as per ABS.

Locally, Kaspa Field Peas prices shoot up by A$ 20-30. We are observing strong trade demand coming from China. Recent trade offers reported for Kaspa Peas – CFR Tianjin at U$ 390 – U$ 395 levels

Global canola market is climbing so as Australian canola both old & new crop prices went is up by $40 pmt.

In Nepal, we heard a trade offer for Ukrainian rapeseed at U$ 560- U$ 565 levels. Markets have moved up by almost U$40 pmt in last 2 weeks. No export price parity for Australian GM Canola seed yet.

Australian red lentils demand remains flat at the moment in India. No significant enquiry.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offers for CHKM – CFR Karachi at U$ 545 – U$ 550 levels. The local market is up as PKR currency is firming up after the IMF loan and demand continues.

DM us for the price indications & firm offers for Australian Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds

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venedor0 commentsJuly 13, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (13/07/2023) 

All eyes on black sea deal extension sets to expire on 17th July 2023, Russia threatened to quit deal & as Turkey President Erdogan want 3 months extension deal.  

As per RUSGRAIN union top importer of Russian wheat 22/23 season are Egpyt (11.9mmt), Türkiye (10.2 mmt), Algeria (3.3 million tons), Iran (3.1 million tons), and Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons).  

Australia wheat export increased by 9%; China, Philippines & Taiwan are top volume buyers in containerised business & again China is largest buyer followed by Vietnam & Indonesia in bulk in vessel business in May as per ABS.  

Australia canola unable to find’s the export parity in Nepal market against Ukraine’s rapseed. We heard trade offers at Ukraine rapeseed at U$ 520+/- levels – bulk in containers.   

Australia canola exports up by 56%; Pakistan, UAE & Japan are largest buyers in May as per ABS. 

Australia red lentils current demand from India is sluggish at the moment, market experts are anticipating that demand will pick up during festival & marriage seasons.  As we heard trade reported for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at CFR Kolkata U$ 670 levels & CFR Birgung (Nepal) U$ 682 levels, bulk in containers.  

Australia lentils exports up by 65%; India is largest buyer followed by Turkiye & Nepal in May as per ABS. Shipments still strong with upto 940k exported Jan,23 to May,23. Stocks seems to be tightening up with generally low-quality product remaining in VIC.  

In Pakistan, CHKM traded – CFR Karachi U$ 530+/- pmt in containers. Karachi local market price went up CHKM U$ 548 pmt & CHK1 U$ 555 pmt as per market advised received. PKR/U$ on recovery streak. Since the reports of the IMF standby deal, PKR gained Rs.8.50 to U$ in past few sessions. Will boost import parity. 

Australia desi chickpea exports up by 280%; Pakistan, Nepal & UAE were top buyers in May as per ABS.  

No export parity at the moment in China’s market for Australia’s sorghum. As we heard trade reported for CFR Qingdao – U$ 325 pmt last week bulk in containers. 

AUD/USD jumped 1.5% overnight on account of USD weakness, as a result of lower-than-expected US CPI data for June 23. This may limit further fed rate hikes. 

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Pulses, Grains & Oilseeds 

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venedor0 commentsJuly 7, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/07/2023) 

In Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark) we are observing thin trade demand coming from India.  Recent trade reported of Nipper – CFR Birgunj (Nepal) at 685 levels in containers.  

Sight of relief to Pakistan, IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR 2,250 million (about $3 billion or 111 percent of Pakistan’s IMF quota). Heard offers for CHKM at 510-15 levels CFR Karachi in containers, though low demand in local Pakistan market and Karachi port arrivals of peas picking up.     

Reserve Bank of Australia hold interest rate 4.1% in June to tackle inflation in country. AUD/USD rangebound 0.66c to 0.67c. 

As per FAS USDA forecasted, Australia wheat production 29 Mt in 2023/24 (-10.7 Mt compared to last year). Export will drop to 21 Mt than last year 31 Mt. Barley production forecasted to 10 Mt in 2023/24 compared to last year 14 Mt & exports will up by 5.5 Mt due to China’s tariff review & uncertainly of Ukraine exports. 

Despite of upheaval with Ukraine, Russia recorded 45 MMT export of wheat or 51% higher than last season 2022-23. Presently, Russia wheat is ruling the market with cheap pricing across the destinations.   

Australian wheat followed somewhat the sharp falls seen on US wheat futures because of positive crop conditions. New crop APW multi bids down $20 -$30 pmt ; old crop $10 -$20 pmt   various port zones, but with little selling interest from growers, market remains illiquid. 

In Russian & EU harvesting of wheat is begun, with other grains & oilseed begin to harvest in next months. The major challenge for EU wheat exporters is the dominance of cheaper Russia wheat in the market. Might they have to target Morocco & China for larger export sales. 

Black Sea vs Australian barley spread to Middle East markets at U$50 pmt currently and thus remains uncompetitive while Australia still waits for China barley markets to open. 

Lack of export demand on barley with new crop bids $10-30 pmt down and old crop seeing $10-$15 drop in bids. 

Sorghum markets continued to be subdued with harvest largely completed in SE QLD and NNSW and partial remaining in CQ. Reportedly traded in containers to Qingdao at USD 322 pmt with thin interest. 

As per EU commission, EU rapeseed production forecast of 600Kt to 19MMT proved to be bullish factor for Australian canola seeds  

Production cuts to US soybean and EU rapeseed caused a brief run on the bourses but given a heavy northern hemisphere supply side on oilseed and bearish demand, little upside potential. Ukraine rapeseed reported trade into ISC at USD 500 pmt levels in containers 

As per USDA WASDE, Global rapeseed production remains unchanged this month at 87 Mt. Overall consumption forecasted 85 Mt, with marginal rise of 2%(y-o-y) for EU to 25.4 Mt. Overall export dip by 2% this month to 17.7 Mt due to fall in Australian exports. With decline in production, Ukraine & Australia exports are expected to drop by 15% & 38% respectively. 

As per BOM withholding officially declaring EL Nino yet saying “sustained changes in wind, cloud and broadscale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observed”. 

“This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Nino events.” The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October,” 

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Pulses, Grains & Oilseeds 

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venedor0 commentsJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains Market Update (28/06/2023)

Black Sea wheat continues to be cheapest source, keeping a lid on Australian exports and values

Black sea grain corridor expiring 18th July 23, less compulsion to renewal by Russia may lead to impact on grain markets. 33 mmt appx. exported via the grain corridor, may need to find alternate routes via river/rail/road options.

US weather markets in play on the boards. Better prospects of rain over the US Midwest now factored in however US wheat still at significant premium to Black Sea and may need to discount further.

Australian domestic wheat market observes strong demands for SFW from QLD feed markets. Export demand remains flat with exporters focusing only on front month shipment coverages which are easily purchased without pushing values upwards.

India, might look for a wheat import. As the federation of millers of India, wheat production 2023/24 forecasted is 101-103 MMT against the earlier wheat production 2023/24 forecasted by by the MoA & FW 112.74 MMT last month. Government holding appx 8.7mmt of wheat for market interventions post PDS and buffer requirements and with stock limits in place may be able to hold off imports for now.

A significant rain band cutting across NT and crossing over east into QLD and NSW may bring welcome rainfall to dry northern plains of NSW this week and next. May allow for those dry areas from Moree to Walgett to be planted – most likely wheat and barley acres and to a lesser extent chickpeas.

Several good rainfalls in WA, SA & VIC in June seems to have alleviated any moisture stress on winter crops and growing recent demand for urea ahead of rain events indicate that growers in many areas with good rainfall totals may now have confidence on winter crop prospects. Would it be a moderate El Nino! BOM forecasts indicate IOD likely to be positive only by Aug,23 lending to drier conditions so spring dryness may have impact.

Growers showing little interest to sell new crop 2023-24 production, though uptick in new crop APW values upwards of A$410 port have seen some participation by growers having good soil moisture profiles.


This week containerized trade price advise from market sources :-


SE Asia – APW traded in mid U$ 320s

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venedor0 commentsJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses & Canola Market Update (28/06/2023)

On a macro level crude oil under pressure as a result of global recessionary fears. Interest rates still in northward direction in higher for longer mode.

During India’s PM Modi’s recent trip to the United States, the two nations agreed, India will lift tariffs on eight US goods, including lentils and chickpeas, and the US will lift tariffs on India’s goods, steel and aluminum.

Tur shortage and limited scope of replenishment/import should continue to underpin lentil values in India. Uptick in demand during upcoming festive season may prove bullish on pulses in India. El Nino impact on Indian monsoon a threat still.

Expect a smaller desi chickpeas crop this year with 250,000 ha(ABARE) in QLD in good health, NNSW possibly tad lower than 170,000 ha (ABARE). Lentils planted in VIC (305,000 ha (ABARE) and SA (320,000 ha (ABARE)) are in good health and seems to be benefitting from recent rains.

Australia inflation rate has come in lower at 5.6 per cent in May from 6.8 per cent in April. RBA may pause its interest rate hikes.

Lower fertilizer prices this season thus lower cost of production and subject to production remaining above average, we may see pricing competitiveness in Australia new crop across the board.

Container freight ex Australia to Indian sub-continent now within the USD10-USD15 pmt premium to bulk making container flows more active. We expect to see more improvement in container freight in coming months.

Very thinly traded volumes & low demand from export destinations this week(as per market advisories received :-

CHK1 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 701 pmt

CHKM – CFR Karachi traded – U$ 525 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #1 – CFR Kolkata traded – U$ 670 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #2 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 658 pmt

Middle East – no demand/trades reported

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