venedorJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains Market Update (28/06/2023)

Black Sea wheat continues to be cheapest source, keeping a lid on Australian exports and values

Black sea grain corridor expiring 18th July 23, less compulsion to renewal by Russia may lead to impact on grain markets. 33 mmt appx. exported via the grain corridor, may need to find alternate routes via river/rail/road options.

US weather markets in play on the boards. Better prospects of rain over the US Midwest now factored in however US wheat still at significant premium to Black Sea and may need to discount further.

Australian domestic wheat market observes strong demands for SFW from QLD feed markets. Export demand remains flat with exporters focusing only on front month shipment coverages which are easily purchased without pushing values upwards.

India, might look for a wheat import. As the federation of millers of India, wheat production 2023/24 forecasted is 101-103 MMT against the earlier wheat production 2023/24 forecasted by by the MoA & FW 112.74 MMT last month. Government holding appx 8.7mmt of wheat for market interventions post PDS and buffer requirements and with stock limits in place may be able to hold off imports for now.

A significant rain band cutting across NT and crossing over east into QLD and NSW may bring welcome rainfall to dry northern plains of NSW this week and next. May allow for those dry areas from Moree to Walgett to be planted – most likely wheat and barley acres and to a lesser extent chickpeas.

Several good rainfalls in WA, SA & VIC in June seems to have alleviated any moisture stress on winter crops and growing recent demand for urea ahead of rain events indicate that growers in many areas with good rainfall totals may now have confidence on winter crop prospects. Would it be a moderate El Nino! BOM forecasts indicate IOD likely to be positive only by Aug,23 lending to drier conditions so spring dryness may have impact.

Growers showing little interest to sell new crop 2023-24 production, though uptick in new crop APW values upwards of A$410 port have seen some participation by growers having good soil moisture profiles.


This week containerized trade price advise from market sources :-


SE Asia – APW traded in mid U$ 320s

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venedorJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses & Canola Market Update (28/06/2023)

On a macro level crude oil under pressure as a result of global recessionary fears. Interest rates still in northward direction in higher for longer mode.

During India’s PM Modi’s recent trip to the United States, the two nations agreed, India will lift tariffs on eight US goods, including lentils and chickpeas, and the US will lift tariffs on India’s goods, steel and aluminum.

Tur shortage and limited scope of replenishment/import should continue to underpin lentil values in India. Uptick in demand during upcoming festive season may prove bullish on pulses in India. El Nino impact on Indian monsoon a threat still.

Expect a smaller desi chickpeas crop this year with 250,000 ha(ABARE) in QLD in good health, NNSW possibly tad lower than 170,000 ha (ABARE). Lentils planted in VIC (305,000 ha (ABARE) and SA (320,000 ha (ABARE)) are in good health and seems to be benefitting from recent rains.

Australia inflation rate has come in lower at 5.6 per cent in May from 6.8 per cent in April. RBA may pause its interest rate hikes.

Lower fertilizer prices this season thus lower cost of production and subject to production remaining above average, we may see pricing competitiveness in Australia new crop across the board.

Container freight ex Australia to Indian sub-continent now within the USD10-USD15 pmt premium to bulk making container flows more active. We expect to see more improvement in container freight in coming months.

Very thinly traded volumes & low demand from export destinations this week(as per market advisories received :-

CHK1 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 701 pmt

CHKM – CFR Karachi traded – U$ 525 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #1 – CFR Kolkata traded – U$ 670 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #2 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 658 pmt

Middle East – no demand/trades reported

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venedorJune 27, 2023Uncategorized

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (21/06/2023) 

Global wheat market, dry weather condition in US crop region uplifted the international prices. However global prices still driven by ample supply of cheap Russian wheat. 

Australian domestic wheat market has uplifted prices for old & new crop due to weather conditions, strong demand for feed SFW1 is coming from north.   

India approved export of wheat to Nepal & broken rice to Indonesia, Senegal & Gamiba.   

Barley, Australian growers awaits from China to resolve the trade dispute in next two weeks & domestic market of malting barley has been quit. Export of feed barley fall by 27% & malting barley fall by 12% m-o-m basis in April; biggest volume buyers for Australian feed barley are Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Kuwait & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Singapore in April.   

Global Canola market experiencing bullish factor due to dry weather condition impacted on soyabean & corn crop in their development phase as per USDA. In domestic market Australian canola prices went up by $20-$40 pmt across both old & new crop. Australian Canola export drop by 46.26 % m-o-m basis & Germany, Japan & UAE were biggest volume buyers in April. Still Australian exporters not able to find market parity for canola seeds against Ukrainian rapeseed. 

Sorghum, China & Japan are the biggest volume buyers; Overall export up by 73% on m-o-m basis in April.  

No major demands coming for Australian red lentils from India; Pakistan continues to be volume buyer of Australia’s desi chickpeas.  

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 3 of the 4 criteria for development of EI Nino have been met; this year, there are more chances of warm weather event will occur. 

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (14/06/2023)

Indian govt. announced a 10.35% hike in MSP for lentils, millet & paddy to support growers.  

India, Sri lanka & UAE were the top 3 volume consumers of Australian lentils in April. Export of lentils boosted by to 173% y-o-y basis & fall by 6% in m-o-m basis.  

In recent time, Pakistan has emerged as a volume buyer for Australian desi chickpeas. Export of desi chickpeas fall by 62.46% in April m-o-m basis.  

Australian exporters were unable to negotiate parity price for canola seed in Nepal, where it already faces fierce competition from Ukrainian rapeseeds. 

Today, Australian dollar is 0.6786 which is up by 3 cents that is limiting trade this week. 

Again, India has set a stock limit on wheat that will remain in effect until March 31, 2024, to control prices. May eventuate import requirements later part of this year. 

In April, China and Malaysia were the biggest buyers of Australian wheat in the containers followed Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, & Indonesia. Containerised wheat export decline by 28% m-o-m basis as per ABS. 

In bulk in vessel wheat business, again China is biggest volume consumers followed by Thailand & Indonesia in April. Export of wheat in bulk fall by 19.32 % m-o-m basis as per ABS 

Heavy rainfall in China’s Henan province during winter harvesting; impacting quality of new wheat crop 2023-24, earlier it was forecasted to 140 MMT as USDA report. 

Australian wheat continues to be more expensive on export parity basis to CIS origin. Domestic trade on wheat seems to now see very limited bids by domestic end users/exporters on back of recent rains in grain growing areas of SNSW/VIC/SA & Southern WA providing some optimism; demand in SE Asia for Australian wheat remains affected due to cheaper CIS grain availability.  

Slow harvest, low availability continues to push Sorghum pricing higher domestically; continued China export demand. 

Australian canola east coast port zones higher by about $15 to $30 this week on back of jump in European markets. However, pressure to remain on pricing given almost 2 mmt carryout expected. 

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (07/06/2023)  

In India, the central government announced on June 2 to impose stock limit on tur & urad dal for wholesalers, retailers big retail chain, millers & importer to prevent stockpiling, control price inflation & speculations. It will be effective immediately until Oct 31,2023.  As per reports, under new order, wholesaler subject to a stock limit of 200 MT for each pulse, while retailer can hold up to 5 MT & Miller allowed to stock up to 3 months or 25% annual capacity. Importers cannot store pulses for more than 30 days.   

Current India’s pulses market is very quiet, heard trade offers for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) for CFR Kolkata – $670, CFR Nhava Sheva – $ 670 & CFR Tuticorin – $ 680 levels with limited buyer interest. 

Tur dal is short in India, as per the market experts India is waiting for the African Tur to available in the mkt. As per data shows that South Indian states have high consumption of Tur dal (Election year is near, so govt want to control price inflation by importing tur dal from the Africa & distributes at subsidised rates) 

No forthcoming demands coming from UAE, Nepal & Bangladesh for pulses yet. Heard that Nipper / Hallmark #1 trade offers at 665 levels in Bangladesh with limited buyer interests. 

In Nepal, no strong demand coming for Australian canola seed facing competition from Ukraine’s rapeseeds.  

Australia’s winter crop forecast decline by 34% to 44.9Mt in 2023-24. Due to the expectation of below-average winter and spring rainfall, yield prospects are anticipated to be below average.   

Barley, new crop forecast at 9.9Mt, decline 30% from 14.1Mt last year; On Wheat, new crop forecast at 26.2Mt, decline 34% from 39.2Mt last year; & Canola, staggering 41% dropped at 4.9Mt from current crop of 8.3Mt.  

As per Australian weather bureau, 70% chance this year of a El Nino weather & food producers across Asia are being threatened by the dry weather. Australia’s wheat, palm oil, and rice production in Southeast Asia are particularly at risk. 

Winter crop planting almost wrapping up in most Australia crop growing areas with some late planting expected on back of recent rains in NSW cropping areas. Eyes remain on weather with threat of El Nino at 70% as per Australia weather bureau. 

Australian wheat market continues to remain in flat mode as Black Sea origin continues to be offered at aggressive pricing to all destinations. 

Expectation of significant global supplies of wheat and continuing free flow of Black Sea wheat keeping lid on upside in pricing. 

Earlier USDA has projected that wheat projection for Australia new crop 29Mt in 2023-24; as per ABARES projection wheat new crop fall by 30% to 26.2Mt. 

China harvest rains on wheat crop may impact quality and quantity.  

Barley market, eyes on Chinese demand & on potential of tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. Mostly Australia domestic feed pricing in play at the moment. 

In Sorghum, Chinese demand will continue to be driving force. Most stock in SE Qld exhausted, Central Qld & Riverina harvesting and should cover Jul/Aug vessels, containers become uncompetitive. Prices increase on export shorts and slow harvest. 

Canola seed pricing remains under pressure on back of ample global supply, a surplus of veg oil stock and large expected carryout of rapeseed in Europe. Australian canola seed production to lower to 4.9 mmt vs 8.2mmt (22/23); 41% drop 

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (31/05/2023)   

In India, minimal trade movement for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1), been advised last week traded for CFR Kolkata – USD 685 pmt levels in bulk in containers. Ongoing strength in Tur has not led to any significant uptick in import demand yet. With strict government directives on stock holding, traders are unwilling to resort to any large volume imports thus keeping business to continue to tick over at sideway pricing values. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 685pmt; CFR Nhava Seva – USD 680pmt; CFR Birganj (Nepal) – USD 725pmt 

Australian Chickpeas is more focused towards just Pakistan market, no demand seen any other destination. Traders attending GPC at Sydney got their share of excitement this week with mkt grapevine suggesting appx. 8-10k mt traded in containers of both 25% def (CFR Karachi – USD 505pmt) and 15% def (CFR Karachi – USD 520 pmt), though we are led to believe that this volume took out the local trader long stocks. Significant currency risk factor for Pak still keeps Australian seller risk appetite in check. Our indication for CFR Karachi – July/Aug – Bulk in container – CHK1 – USD 560; CHKM (15% def) – USD 525; CHKM (25% def) – USD 505; Nipper/Hallmark#1 – USD 695 pmt.       

Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no forthcoming demand for pulses yet.  

Global markets on oilseed complex continue to slide. Australian Canola seed market in Nepal facing competition from Ukranian rapeseed due to aggressive price offers. Our Indication for GM Canola min 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 620 pmt. We haven’t seen any firm queries in last 1 week. 

AUD/USD 0.65 at 6-month low which is supportive for Aussie exports, however falling demand against expected significant northern hemisphere crops and global macro fears keeping a lid on export volumes across grains and pulses. 

On new crop estimates, whilst planting hectares will be similar across all pulse’s crops, however expected yields are estimated lower by various agencies with PIRSA in SA expecting lentils to harvest about 1.73 mt/ha in 23/24 crop vs 2.75 mt/ha in 22/23 crop. (191,600 ha yielding 527,250 mt in 22/23 vs expected 201,400 ha yielding 348,800 mt). We expect this trend to be similar across all Australian states due to threat of El Nino which may threaten our crop prospects this spring. 

Global wheat market found support due to the resurgence of uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian export corridor & dry weather in US settling into corn and soybean-growing regions. Despite of unchanged dry weather condition still US struggling to compete with Russia who is holding large stocks of cheap wheat. In order regain importer’s attention, lack of demand is causing US wheat price dip below corn.   

Australian growers have been busy crop planting, we see slowdown in export interests. We anticipated firm demand of Wheat from Asia countries but facing competition from cheap Russian wheat. We don’t see any meaningful support for Australian wheat prices in the short term due to the sufficient global wheat supply, cheap and plentiful Russian wheat, and worse economic conditions. 

In Barely market, Australian growers clearly sees that Chinese demand and prospects for new crops are the two clear opportunities. We are keeping an eye on the Chinese tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. New potential upside should new crop prospects suffer due to drier conditions. Due to the threat of El Nino the new crop bids aren’t yet at the point where they would create interest.  

In Sorghum, Australian grower anticipating that Chinese demand is still the dominant factor with the weaker Australian dollar supports prices. 

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update  (24/05/2023)

In India, Australian Red Lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) traded at USD 680 pmt levels for CFR Kolkata bulk in containers, sales are trying to be pushed but buyers are unwilling to increase bids. Heard USD 660 pmt levels traded for Nipper/Hallmark#1 CFR Nhava Sheva however with freight differential usually limited to between USD 5-6 pmt between Kolkata and Nhava Sheva, we do not believe there to be many sellers selling steep discounted values into Nhava Sheva. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 692 pmt. 

 In Pakistan, the demand for Australian pulses is waning after a few weeks of aggressive buying. Politico-economic/currency risks keeping most regular Australian sellers restricted for container business for Pak. Small amounts of CHKM containers continue at USD 540 CFR Karachi levels. Our Indications for CFR Karachi – CHK1 – USD 570 pmt; CHKM – USD 540 pmt; KCP 7/8 – USD 970 pmt; Nipper/Hallmark #1 – USD 695 pmt  

Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no imminent demand for pulses. In Bangladesh, last week heard trade offers for GM Canola min. 44% bulk in containers around USD 645 levels.  

The Nepal pulse market has slowed down for a while. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark#1 – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 725 pmt; CHK1 – USD 600 pmt.  

 Canola seed continues to be quiet for Nepal buyers mainly due to aggressive offers on Ukraine rapeseed where new crop harvest is just 1 month away, hence urgency on emptying storages. Our price indication for GM Canola min. 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 640 pmt. 

Container freight ex Australia continues to correct month on month as carriers struggle with filling their vessels with cargo. However, we have noticed major carrier’s reluctance to significantly reduce freight rates to the Indian sub-continent majorly due to  

a) Equipment availability issues in Australia due to low import volumes and  

b) Limited own vessel carriers into ISC reducing competition. 

The announcement of a 60-days extension to the Black Sea grain corridor agreement led to pressurization in global wheat prices & corn followed it for the same reasons. Adding further US corn price in pressure due to the cancellation of 272,000 mt of 22/23 corn to China.  

However, Australian growers had couple of good, seasons & so they are not in urgency to sell what they’re holding, particularly with the chances of an El Nino event increasing price in old & new crop.  

Barley prices have fallen along with wheat & corn, but Australian growers are still hoping for support may come later in the year on the back of China’s tariff review. New crop production is looking shaky because of drier conditions caused by a developing El Nino & hoping to get price support in upcoming months.   

Drier than normal conditions are expected to continue until late May. The dry weather continues to hinder planting progress, with planting rates across Eastern Australia spread between 50-70%. VIC is now 70%+ complete, whilst NSW and SA are lower, around 50%. Grower feedback has been that almost everyone is looking for at least 5-10mm to get crops started.   

Sorghum is currently in low demand in China; trade is offering it for USD 340 levels CFR Tianjin for bulk in containers, but there are no bids.  

No major demand from SEA wheat millers; they have enough wheat on hand to last until July 23. Australian wheat in containers quoted for July/Aug shipments period – ASW-USD 322 pmt ; APW- USD 327 pmt.  

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (17/05/2023) 

Minimal trade demand for Australian Lentils from India. Been advised by brokers that there are trade offers as low as USD 685 CFR Kolkata bulk in containers with limited buyer interest. Today’s replacement value for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – June/July – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 695 pmt; CFR Nhava Sheva – USD 690 pmt 

As far as Australian Faba Bean no demand from India. Last I heard trade offers around from the market for Faba Bean at USD 410 seller. Our price Indication CFR Kolkata – USD 420 pmt FAB1 less USD 10 FAB2 – Bulk in Containers – June/July.  

After strong demand & aggressive buying of Australian Desi Chickpeas, Kabauli & Lentils by Pakistan for two weeks. Suddenly demand dipped from the Pakistan market. Our price indications for CFR Karachi – June/July – Bulk in Containers – CHK1 -USD 570 pmt; CHKM – USD 555 pmt; KCP 7/8 mm – USD 980 pmt; Nipper #1 – USD 700 pmt.  

No forthcoming demands coming from Nepal, UAE & Bangladesh. In Bangladesh last week heard a trade offer for Nipper/Hallmark #1 around USD 670-680 levels but weak demand as of now.   

Nepal pulses market is bearish, our price indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – June/July – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 735 pmt.     

Minimal trade demand at present coming for Australian canola seeds from Nepal. Our price indication for GM Canola Min 44% oil – June/July – Bulk in Containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 670 pmt.  

Australian growers are now searching for that next rain event from WA around to parts of eastern Australia, while some areas are very wet in western Victoria.   

USDA report last Friday reduced Australia’s 23/24 wheat production to 29mmt from 39mmt on the impending threat of EL Nino with exports pegged at 21mmt. US wheat production is also forecasted to be one of the lowest at 31mmt. It points to a tighter snd outlook which seemingly has provided a floor to the market. All eyes are on the Black Sea corridor to determine the direction, however, it is broadly expected by trade to be renewed. 

Sowing of winter crops will be almost over in the next 15 days in the eastern Australian states of Qld, NSW, Vic and SA whilst WA farmers slow down planting due to a lack of seed germinating rains across its wheat growing zones. 

With strong El Nino second half of the year, Australia could see a drier and warmer start to winter after three years of wet and unpredictable weather, while India, the world’s second-biggest producer of wheat, rice and sugar, could get below-average rains due to the phenomenon.  

We have not seen any significant demand from SE Asia for containerised wheat. Australia wheat bulk in containers quoted ASW-USD 330 pmt; APW-USD 334; pmt APH2-USD 402 pmt. Australian wheat export demand is very lacklustre, lack of both exporter engagement and grower selling sentiment. 

As of now weak demand in China for Sorghum; Trade offers around USD 340 levels CFR Tianjin for bulk in containers, but no bids against it.

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses Canola & Grains Market Update (10/05/2023) 

Minimal trade demand for Australian Lentils from India. I have been advised by brokers that there are trade offers of USD 690 CFR Kolkata bulk in containers with limited buyer interest. Export parity from Australia at USD 710 CFR Kolkata – June/July. 

Currently no demand for Australian Faba Beans in India’s market. Indication CFR Kolkata – USD 440 pmt FAB1 less USD 10 FAB2 

Nepal, UAE & Bangladesh continue to be very quiet – no pulses demand forthcoming.  

Pakistan market gone quiet this week after seeing strong demand of Australian desi chickpeas for last two weeks.  Been advised of trade offers at USD 570 levels CFR Karachi in containers – no bids are forthcoming at these levels. Australian Kabulis no demand. 

Seeing some demand for Australian canola seed in Nepal. However, still no parity with buyers expecting USD 655 CFR Birgunj levels; trade offer USD 675 CFR Birgunj. Competition from Ukraine-origin rapeseed keeping bids in check. 

Heavy funds selling on the bourses for the full food, feed and oilseed complex.  

Wheat continues to be hammered on the back of good crop conditions in the US, lower priced offers on new crop wheat from CIS and generally low demand from SEA millers who have covered their requirements up to July,23. Australian wheat in containers into main SEA ports quoted ASW – Low USD 330’s; APW – mid USD 330’s; AH2 – high USD340’s 

Weak demand for Australian Sorghum in China due to a crash in the feed complex prices. Corn sales to China continue to be cancelled by exporters. Upto 800,000 tons purchased by China have been cancelled in recent weeks.  

Trade offers for Australian Sorghum to China USD 355  levels CFR Tianjin for bulk in containers, however limited demand at low USD 340 levels. 

Improving prospects of large grain supplies in the northern hemisphere growing regions is continuing to put a heavy lid on demand and pricing expectations of consumers continue to be heavily discounted to replacement values. 

Australian growers continue to plant the winter crop which contributes to low sales and hence stagnant prices on Australian-origin grain. They continue to hold on to warehoused grain although export demand has dropped significantly with very little new business reported in the last few weeks. 

About 50-60% crop has been planted in the eastern states of Vic/NSW/Qld and about 40% crop planted in WA. 

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venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses Market Update (03/05/2023)  

Minimal Trade demand for Australian Lentils from India. Trade offers as low as USD 690 CFR Kolkata bulk in containers with limited buyer interest. 

Australia sees strong demand for Desi Chickpeas last week in Pakistan. Prices have jumped from USD 520 levels to USD 570 CFR Karachi in containers in the last 2 weeks. Demand ongoing with supplies are limited, however with Pak purchasing significant tonnage Russian YP at USD 390 CFR Karachi bulk in containers – there seems to be limited appetite for Desi Chickpeas above the USD 570 mark. 

Kabuli demand has waned in Pak due to adequate supplies ex Russia. Australia Kabulis min.30%8mm priced around USD 995 CFR Karachi bulk in containers. 

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