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venedorAugust 10, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses and Oilseed Market Update (10/08/2023)

China lifted the trade tariff on Australia’s barley last week. In Australia’s local market barley prices increased by A$30 pmt, however, limited demand as traders works towards sales and more details. We heard trade offers for feed barley at high U$ 270 levels in China last week.

In Australia, local wheat prices increased by A$ 20 pmt, resulting in an uplift in futures.

Export of Australian wheat declined by 44% in containerized business – China, Taiwan & Vietnam were the top buyers; In bulk, export declined by 22% – Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam are volume buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

India might abolish the 40% import tax on wheat to control local pricing in the country. As per government there was no proposal to import wheat from India via a government-to-government deal. As per MOA&FW wheat production recorded 112.74 MMT in 2023 compared to 107.7 MMT in 2022. All eyes are on India at this moment as imports in excess of 9 MMT will be a big number to be built into the global trade balance sheet.

Export of Australian Chickpeas increased by 135% & Pakistan remains the top volume buyer followed by Bangladesh & UAE in June 2023 as per ABS.

In Pakistan, we heard a trade offer for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 525 pmt to the final buyer.

Export of Lentils dropped by 39% & India, Srilanka, and Nepal are top buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

In India, demand for Australian red lentils spiked briefly on Canadian crop concerns, however, expected to trade sideways on the back of consistent demand for the upcoming festive season and increased supply from Australia & Canada. We heard Nipper/Hallmark #1 traded at U$ 670 pmt to CFR Kolkata.

In Bangladesh, the market is not supportive of CHK1 & Nipper/Hallmark #1 no export price parity at the moment.

Global oilseed market price fluctuations are driven by a couple of key factors, with EU crop cuts & US weather & ongoing Ukraine rapeseed export concerns & renewed dryness concerns in Canadian prairies. In Australia local market canola old crop prices following European futures with an upswing of A$25 pmt after a similar drop last week, grower selling is limited for old crop canola and new crop canola due to ongoing concerns of dry spring and limited crop rain last few weeks in the east coast cropping regions.

In Nepal, Australian canola seeds still struggling to find export price parity against cheap Ukraine’s rapeseed.

DM us for the price indications & firm offers for Australian Grains, Pulses & Oilseed

venedorAugust 3, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/08/2023)

Once again global wheat market is driven by North America weather. As Black Sea tension has subsided, price of wheat has corrected but still Russian wheat remains cheap.

In Australia, local bids for APW1 wheat for old & new crop were down for a week due to the softer global market & lower demand.

According to the China Ag Ministry category 5 Typhoon Doksuri is likely to do significate damage to corn field & grain facilities. China is 2nd biggest producer of corn.

As per USDA crop progress report indicates that dry & hot weather impacted on US corn crop condition, which has continued to be declined.

Barley market remains idle with poor demand & buying interest. Australian growers are optimistic about China’s mkt. Waiting for outcome review of China on tariff by 11th August.

RBA hold interest rate 4.1% for 2nd straight month. Australian dollar on correction mode largely due to other global factors.

In China, minimal trade demand for kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas. We heard trade offers for Australian kaspa Peas at U$ 380 levels & Russian yellow chickpeas traded at U$ 345 levels this week.

In China, we heard trade offers for Australian sorghum at U$ 335 levels in containers.

In Nepal, we heard that Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded at U$ 700 pmt to CFR Birgunj in containers.

In India, no major demand arise for Australian red lentils. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded to CFR Kolkata at U$ 675 in containers & as heard from market experts that desi lentils are been sold in premium price than imported lentils.

In Bangladesh, demand is flat for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1). We heard trade offer at U$ 650-660 levels.

In India, no demand for Faba Beans. We heard FAB#1 traded in U$ 380 levels & less U$10 pmt FAB#2 to Kolkata’s local mkt.

In Pakistan, We heard trade offer at for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 530 levels to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we heard trader offer in local market for desi chickpeas at U$ 485 levels.

𝗗𝗠 𝘂𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 & 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀, 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘀 & 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀

venedorJuly 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (27/07/2023)

Global wheat production 2023-24 declined by 1.9 MMT from last month to 784.2 MMT or 19 MMT less than last year 2022-23 as per IGC.

Russia attacked Ukraine’s grain terminals in the Danube port, which resulted in wheat futures up by 8.5%, though profit-taking capped the surges. Corn futures are also up by A$10-15 pmt.

The domestic Australian wheat market went up by A$20-A$50 pmt for old crops. But still Australian wheat is unable to compete against cheaper Russian grain in the destination market. In the SEA region, we heard that the Vietnamese buying Aussie wheat at mid-US$ 310 levels in bulk vessels.

Eygpt Govt assured to local public that it have sufficient wheat stock after Russia walked out from the grain deal on 18th July. Egypt started signing an agreement with India to import wheat & acute for other multiple wheat sources such from the US, Bulgaria, Romania, France & Germany as per UkrAgroConsult.

India has banned non-Basmati rice exports. As they predicted acute shortage is on the way due to crop damage by heavy rainfall. India accounted for more than 40% of rice exports across the globe.

In China, minimal trade demand for Australian sorghum against cheaper US sorghum. We heard trade offers for Australian Sorghum at U$ 340 levels last week & trade offers for US Sorghum at U$ 315-320 levels.

Global oilseed markets are unpredictable due to high tension in the Black Sea and dryness concerns in Canada, which resulted in Australia’s old crop canola prices going up by A$5 pmt & new crop trading at a premium price of A$20-40 pmt, this past week.

In Nepal, no price viability for Australian canola. As we heard trade offers for Ukrainian rapeseed at US$ 545-550 levels for CFR Birgunj.

In India, there is no major enquiry for Australian red lentils at the moment & the local port stock price is relatively flat. As we heard the trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at U$ 690 levels for Birgunj.

In China, minimal trade demand for Australian Kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas at US$ 330 levels. KASPA PEAS traded CFR Tianjin US$ 380 pmt in containers.

In Nepal, as we heard the trade offer for Australian CHK1 at US$ 580 levels for CFR Birgung & Biratnagar in containers.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offer CHKM at US$ 540 levels CFR Karachi to final buyers & PKR currency is firming up.

venedorJuly 20, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (20/07/2023)

Black Sea corridor is officially expired Russia reject the renewal of the deal. The Ukrainian president is cooperating with the UN & Turkey to continue the deal. As per market experts, Russia’s call-off did not initially impact the global wheat market as much as it was anticipated, though with yesterday’s bombing of Ukrainian port infrastructure and some 50k wheat stock, there was an acute increase in the price of wheat & corn market. Russia’s intent seems to be clearly in the direction of punishing Ukraine and applying pressure on the west to give in to their demands.

Russia might abolish export duties for grains/oilseeds/ veg oils if shipped to so-called ‘Friendly nations’ So countries like Egypt could buy Russian wheat cheaper & India save $ on sun oil imports – wheat etc. to be used as a geopolitical weapon

Australian wheat price remains uncompetitive even after getting the best freight rates against cheaper Russian wheat in the SE Asia region.

In SE Asia, we heard that APW traded Sahathai for 304 levels & APH13 traded CFR Laem Chabang for 370 levels.

For Barley, Australian growers have to wait a little longer as China demands one more month to review the tariffs before final comment.

Australian feed barley export is up by 14% & malt barley is declined by 48% ; KSA, Japan & Vietnam biggest importers – of feed barley; Vietnam, Peru & Ecuador are the top importers in n the month of May per ABS

Export of Sorghum is up by 25%; China accounted for 98% of the total export in May as per ABS.

Locally, Kaspa Field Peas prices shoot up by A$ 20-30. We are observing strong trade demand coming from China. Recent trade offers reported for Kaspa Peas – CFR Tianjin at U$ 390 – U$ 395 levels

Global canola market is climbing so as Australian canola both old & new crop prices went is up by $40 pmt.

In Nepal, we heard a trade offer for Ukrainian rapeseed at U$ 560- U$ 565 levels. Markets have moved up by almost U$40 pmt in last 2 weeks. No export price parity for Australian GM Canola seed yet.

Australian red lentils demand remains flat at the moment in India. No significant enquiry.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offers for CHKM – CFR Karachi at U$ 545 – U$ 550 levels. The local market is up as PKR currency is firming up after the IMF loan and demand continues.

DM us for the price indications & firm offers for Australian Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds

venedorJuly 13, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (13/07/2023)

All eyes on black sea deal extension sets to expire on 17th July 2023, Russia threatened to quit deal & as Turkey President Erdogan want 3 months extension deal.

As per RUSGRAIN union top importer of Russian wheat 22/23 season are Egpyt (11.9mmt), Türkiye (10.2 mmt), Algeria (3.3 million tons), Iran (3.1 million tons), and Saudi Arabia (3.1 million tons).

Australia wheat export increased by 9%; China, Philippines & Taiwan are top volume buyers in containerised business & again China is largest buyer followed by Vietnam & Indonesia in bulk in vessel business in May as per ABS.

Australia canola unable to find’s the export parity in Nepal market against Ukraine’s rapseed. We heard trade offers at Ukraine rapeseed at U$ 520+/- levels – bulk in containers.

Australia canola exports up by 56%; Pakistan, UAE & Japan are largest buyers in May as per ABS.

Australia red lentils current demand from India is sluggish at the moment, market experts are anticipating that demand will pick up during festival & marriage seasons. As we heard trade reported for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at CFR Kolkata U$ 670 levels & CFR Birgung (Nepal) U$ 682 levels, bulk in containers.

Australia lentils exports up by 65%; India is largest buyer followed by Turkiye & Nepal in May as per ABS. Shipments still strong with upto 940k exported Jan,23 to May,23. Stocks seems to be tightening up with generally low-quality product remaining in VIC.

In Pakistan, CHKM traded – CFR Karachi U$ 530+/- pmt in containers. Karachi local market price went up CHKM U$ 548 pmt & CHK1 U$ 555 pmt as per market advised received. PKR/U$ on recovery streak. Since the reports of the IMF standby deal, PKR gained Rs.8.50 to U$ in past few sessions. Will boost import parity.

Australia desi chickpea exports up by 280%; Pakistan, Nepal & UAE were top buyers in May as per ABS.

No export parity at the moment in China’s market for Australia’s sorghum. As we heard trade reported for CFR Qingdao – U$ 325 pmt last week bulk in containers.

AUD/USD jumped 1.5% overnight on account of USD weakness, as a result of lower-than-expected US CPI data for June 23. This may limit further fed rate hikes.

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Pulses, Grains & Oilseeds

venedorJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grains Market Update (28/06/2023)

Black Sea wheat continues to be cheapest source, keeping a lid on Australian exports and values

Black sea grain corridor expiring 18th July 23, less compulsion to renewal by Russia may lead to impact on grain markets. 33 mmt appx. exported via the grain corridor, may need to find alternate routes via river/rail/road options.

US weather markets in play on the boards. Better prospects of rain over the US Midwest now factored in however US wheat still at significant premium to Black Sea and may need to discount further.

Australian domestic wheat market observes strong demands for SFW from QLD feed markets. Export demand remains flat with exporters focusing only on front month shipment coverages which are easily purchased without pushing values upwards.

India, might look for a wheat import. As the federation of millers of India, wheat production 2023/24 forecasted is 101-103 MMT against the earlier wheat production 2023/24 forecasted by by the MoA & FW 112.74 MMT last month. Government holding appx 8.7mmt of wheat for market interventions post PDS and buffer requirements and with stock limits in place may be able to hold off imports for now.

A significant rain band cutting across NT and crossing over east into QLD and NSW may bring welcome rainfall to dry northern plains of NSW this week and next. May allow for those dry areas from Moree to Walgett to be planted – most likely wheat and barley acres and to a lesser extent chickpeas.

Several good rainfalls in WA, SA & VIC in June seems to have alleviated any moisture stress on winter crops and growing recent demand for urea ahead of rain events indicate that growers in many areas with good rainfall totals may now have confidence on winter crop prospects. Would it be a moderate El Nino! BOM forecasts indicate IOD likely to be positive only by Aug,23 lending to drier conditions so spring dryness may have impact.

Growers showing little interest to sell new crop 2023-24 production, though uptick in new crop APW values upwards of A$410 port have seen some participation by growers having good soil moisture profiles.

This week containerized trade price advise from market sources :-

SE Asia – APW traded in mid U$ 320s

venedorJune 28, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses & Canola Market Update (28/06/2023)

On a macro level crude oil under pressure as a result of global recessionary fears. Interest rates still in northward direction in higher for longer mode.

During India’s PM Modi’s recent trip to the United States, the two nations agreed, India will lift tariffs on eight US goods, including lentils and chickpeas, and the US will lift tariffs on India’s goods, steel and aluminum.

Tur shortage and limited scope of replenishment/import should continue to underpin lentil values in India. Uptick in demand during upcoming festive season may prove bullish on pulses in India. El Nino impact on Indian monsoon a threat still.

Expect a smaller desi chickpeas crop this year with 250,000 ha(ABARE) in QLD in good health, NNSW possibly tad lower than 170,000 ha (ABARE). Lentils planted in VIC (305,000 ha (ABARE) and SA (320,000 ha (ABARE)) are in good health and seems to be benefitting from recent rains.

Australia inflation rate has come in lower at 5.6 per cent in May from 6.8 per cent in April. RBA may pause its interest rate hikes.

Lower fertilizer prices this season thus lower cost of production and subject to production remaining above average, we may see pricing competitiveness in Australia new crop across the board.

Container freight ex Australia to Indian sub-continent now within the USD10-USD15 pmt premium to bulk making container flows more active. We expect to see more improvement in container freight in coming months.

Very thinly traded volumes & low demand from export destinations this week(as per market advisories received :-

CHK1 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 701 pmt

CHKM – CFR Karachi traded – U$ 525 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #1 – CFR Kolkata traded – U$ 670 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #2 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 658 pmt

Middle East – no demand/trades reported

venedorJune 27, 2023Uncategorized

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (21/06/2023)

Global wheat market, dry weather condition in US crop region uplifted the international prices. However global prices still driven by ample supply of cheap Russian wheat.

Australian domestic wheat market has uplifted prices for old & new crop due to weather conditions, strong demand for feed SFW1 is coming from north.

India approved export of wheat to Nepal & broken rice to Indonesia, Senegal & Gamiba.

Barley, Australian growers awaits from China to resolve the trade dispute in next two weeks & domestic market of malting barley has been quit. Export of feed barley fall by 27% & malting barley fall by 12% m-o-m basis in April; biggest volume buyers for Australian feed barley are Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Kuwait & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Singapore in April.

Global Canola market experiencing bullish factor due to dry weather condition impacted on soyabean & corn crop in their development phase as per USDA. In domestic market Australian canola prices went up by $20-$40 pmt across both old & new crop. Australian Canola export drop by 46.26 % m-o-m basis & Germany, Japan & UAE were biggest volume buyers in April. Still Australian exporters not able to find market parity for canola seeds against Ukrainian rapeseed.

Sorghum, China & Japan are the biggest volume buyers; Overall export up by 73% on m-o-m basis in April.

No major demands coming for Australian red lentils from India; Pakistan continues to be volume buyer of Australia’s desi chickpeas.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 3 of the 4 criteria for development of EI Nino have been met; this year, there are more chances of warm weather event will occur.

venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (14/06/2023)

Indian govt. announced a 10.35% hike in MSP for lentils, millet & paddy to support growers.

India, Sri lanka & UAE were the top 3 volume consumers of Australian lentils in April. Export of lentils boosted by to 173% y-o-y basis & fall by 6% in m-o-m basis.

In recent time, Pakistan has emerged as a volume buyer for Australian desi chickpeas. Export of desi chickpeas fall by 62.46% in April m-o-m basis.

Australian exporters were unable to negotiate parity price for canola seed in Nepal, where it already faces fierce competition from Ukrainian rapeseeds.

Today, Australian dollar is 0.6786 which is up by 3 cents that is limiting trade this week.

Again, India has set a stock limit on wheat that will remain in effect until March 31, 2024, to control prices. May eventuate import requirements later part of this year.

In April, China and Malaysia were the biggest buyers of Australian wheat in the containers followed Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, & Indonesia. Containerised wheat export decline by 28% m-o-m basis as per ABS.

In bulk in vessel wheat business, again China is biggest volume consumers followed by Thailand & Indonesia in April. Export of wheat in bulk fall by 19.32 % m-o-m basis as per ABS

Heavy rainfall in China’s Henan province during winter harvesting; impacting quality of new wheat crop 2023-24, earlier it was forecasted to 140 MMT as USDA report.

Australian wheat continues to be more expensive on export parity basis to CIS origin. Domestic trade on wheat seems to now see very limited bids by domestic end users/exporters on back of recent rains in grain growing areas of SNSW/VIC/SA & Southern WA providing some optimism; demand in SE Asia for Australian wheat remains affected due to cheaper CIS grain availability.

Slow harvest, low availability continues to push Sorghum pricing higher domestically; continued China export demand.

Australian canola east coast port zones higher by about $15 to $30 this week on back of jump in European markets. However, pressure to remain on pricing given almost 2 mmt carryout expected.

venedorJune 27, 2023Weekly Market Update

Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (07/06/2023)

In India, the central government announced on June 2 to impose stock limit on tur & urad dal for wholesalers, retailers big retail chain, millers & importer to prevent stockpiling, control price inflation & speculations. It will be effective immediately until Oct 31,2023. As per reports, under new order, wholesaler subject to a stock limit of 200 MT for each pulse, while retailer can hold up to 5 MT & Miller allowed to stock up to 3 months or 25% annual capacity. Importers cannot store pulses for more than 30 days.

Current India’s pulses market is very quiet, heard trade offers for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) for CFR Kolkata – $670, CFR Nhava Sheva – $ 670 & CFR Tuticorin – $ 680 levels with limited buyer interest.

Tur dal is short in India, as per the market experts India is waiting for the African Tur to available in the mkt. As per data shows that South Indian states have high consumption of Tur dal (Election year is near, so govt want to control price inflation by importing tur dal from the Africa & distributes at subsidised rates)

No forthcoming demands coming from UAE, Nepal & Bangladesh for pulses yet. Heard that Nipper / Hallmark #1 trade offers at 665 levels in Bangladesh with limited buyer interests.

In Nepal, no strong demand coming for Australian canola seed facing competition from Ukraine’s rapeseeds.

Australia’s winter crop forecast decline by 34% to 44.9Mt in 2023-24. Due to the expectation of below-average winter and spring rainfall, yield prospects are anticipated to be below average.

Barley, new crop forecast at 9.9Mt, decline 30% from 14.1Mt last year; On Wheat, new crop forecast at 26.2Mt, decline 34% from 39.2Mt last year; & Canola, staggering 41% dropped at 4.9Mt from current crop of 8.3Mt.

As per Australian weather bureau, 70% chance this year of a El Nino weather & food producers across Asia are being threatened by the dry weather. Australia’s wheat, palm oil, and rice production in Southeast Asia are particularly at risk.

Winter crop planting almost wrapping up in most Australia crop growing areas with some late planting expected on back of recent rains in NSW cropping areas. Eyes remain on weather with threat of El Nino at 70% as per Australia weather bureau.

Australian wheat market continues to remain in flat mode as Black Sea origin continues to be offered at aggressive pricing to all destinations.

Expectation of significant global supplies of wheat and continuing free flow of Black Sea wheat keeping lid on upside in pricing.

Earlier USDA has projected that wheat projection for Australia new crop 29Mt in 2023-24; as per ABARES projection wheat new crop fall by 30% to 26.2Mt.

China harvest rains on wheat crop may impact quality and quantity.

Barley market, eyes on Chinese demand & on potential of tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. Mostly Australia domestic feed pricing in play at the moment.

In Sorghum, Chinese demand will continue to be driving force. Most stock in SE Qld exhausted, Central Qld & Riverina harvesting and should cover Jul/Aug vessels, containers become uncompetitive. Prices increase on export shorts and slow harvest.

Canola seed pricing remains under pressure on back of ample global supply, a surplus of veg oil stock and large expected carryout of rapeseed in Europe. Australian canola seed production to lower to 4.9 mmt vs 8.2mmt (22/23); 41% drop