Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (24/08/2023)

Global wheat production for 23/24 remained unchanged at 784MMT, over a 19MMT drop compared to 22/23 production due to decreasing Russian production as per IGC.

In Australia, before the arrival of the new crop, growers are concentrating on selling their old crop and clearing up their warehouse stock. Local wheat market trade demand remains strong for SFW & H2. New crop wheat port pricing has seen a jump last 2 weeks of between A$10-A$20 pmt, however grower selling subdued due to limited rain and increasing concerns on crop yields as a result.

As per PIRSA, South Australian crop production is estimated for wheat 5.08Mt, barley 2.17Mt, & canola 472K. Overall grain production 23/24 crop projected 8.8 MT compared to last year 12.8MT. Growers in the state remain concerned about the forecasted rainfall for late winter and early spring.

In Australia, in local market the price of lentil old & new crop was significantly higher last week due to seemingly tight global snd due to dryness concerns in Canada and India, with destination interest now significant. Demand continues with old crop price up by A$70 pmt & new crop price up by A$80 pmt.

In India, there is significant demand for Australia’s red lentils, we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark#1 at high U$755 pmt levels to CFR Kolkata (bulk in containers) for Oct/Nov shipments period & good number of enquiries from all the locations. As Indian market for lentil is up by U$80 pmt over past two weeks & as we heard old stocks are getting liquidated at U$720 pmt levels. Bangladesh demand is limited at this stage for red lentils although they will need to participate for Oct/Nov/Dec shipments when their available stocks start running low.

In Bangladesh, we are observing strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas, as we heard new crop 23/24 trade offers for CHK1 at U$545-550 pmt levels, however limited trades heard as not many traders willing to sell at these levels without selling support from origin. Local Australian markets have increased grower bids however with limited selling interest in both old and new crop. Desi chickpeas demand in Pakistan remains subdued, last trades heard CFR Karachi at U$535 pmt (bulk in containers).

In China, trade demand for sorghum & barley is still very slow at the moment. We heard trade offers for Barley U$ 280 pmt levels & Sorghum at U$340 pmt levels.

On crop progress in Australia โ€“ Queensland remains dry with no forecast rain for next week. Low soil moisture levels may now start to impact grain production. Early harvest expected this year with Central Queensland expected to start harvesting mid Sep onwards with South Queensland expected to commence harvesting mid- Oct onwards. Northern NSW remains dry with now concerns of low production on planted crops, South NSW looks in good shape with recent rains and growers have applied fertilizer to crops to boost yields. Victoria is another state where all crops are in good to excellent state with continuing in crop rainfall boosting crop prospects. South Australian crops have been holding up well with some concerns on recent frost damage. In WA, GIWA has expressed concerns on dryness now impacting crop yields to the tune of 1mmt.

Disclaimer : Prices mentioned are for indication purpose only.

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Grain, Pulses and Oilseed Market Update (10/08/2023)

China lifted the trade tariff on Australia’s barley last week. In Australia’s local market barley prices increased by A$30 pmt, however, limited demand as traders works towards sales and more details. We heard trade offers for feed barley at high U$ 270 levels in China last week.

In Australia, local wheat prices increased by A$ 20 pmt, resulting in an uplift in futures.

Export of Australian wheat declined by 44% in containerized business – China, Taiwan & Vietnam were the top buyers; In bulk, export declined by 22% – Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam are volume buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

India might abolish the 40% import tax on wheat to control local pricing in the country. As per government there was no proposal to import wheat from India via a government-to-government deal. As per MOA&FW wheat production recorded 112.74 MMT in 2023 compared to 107.7 MMT in 2022. All eyes are on India at this moment as imports in excess of 9 MMT will be a big number to be built into the global trade balance sheet.

Export of Australian Chickpeas increased by 135% & Pakistan remains the top volume buyer followed by Bangladesh & UAE in June 2023 as per ABS.

In Pakistan, we heard a trade offer for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 525 pmt to the final buyer.

Export of Lentils dropped by 39% & India, Srilanka, and Nepal are top buyers in June 2023 as per ABS.

In India, demand for Australian red lentils spiked briefly on Canadian crop concerns, however, expected to trade sideways on the back of consistent demand for the upcoming festive season and increased supply from Australia & Canada. We heard Nipper/Hallmark #1 traded at U$ 670 pmt to CFR Kolkata.

In Bangladesh, the market is not supportive of CHK1 & Nipper/Hallmark #1 no export price parity at the moment.

Global oilseed market price fluctuations are driven by a couple of key factors, with EU crop cuts & US weather & ongoing Ukraine rapeseed export concerns & renewed dryness concerns in Canadian prairies. In Australia local market canola old crop prices following European futures with an upswing of A$25 pmt after a similar drop last week, grower selling is limited for old crop canola and new crop canola due to ongoing concerns of dry spring and limited crop rain last few weeks in the east coast cropping regions.

In Nepal, Australian canola seeds still struggling to find export price parity against cheap Ukraine’s rapeseed.

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (03/08/2023)

Once again global wheat market is driven by North America weather. As Black Sea tension has subsided, price of wheat has corrected but still Russian wheat remains cheap.

In Australia, local bids for APW1 wheat for old & new crop were down for a week due to the softer global market & lower demand.

According to the China Ag Ministry category 5 Typhoon Doksuri is likely to do significate damage to corn field & grain facilities. China is 2nd biggest producer of corn.

As per USDA crop progress report indicates that dry & hot weather impacted on US corn crop condition, which has continued to be declined.

Barley market remains idle with poor demand & buying interest. Australian growers are optimistic about China’s mkt. Waiting for outcome review of China on tariff by 11th August.

RBA hold interest rate 4.1% for 2nd straight month. Australian dollar on correction mode largely due to other global factors.

In China, minimal trade demand for kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas. We heard trade offers for Australian kaspa Peas at U$ 380 levels & Russian yellow chickpeas traded at U$ 345 levels this week.

In China, we heard trade offers for Australian sorghum at U$ 335 levels in containers.

In Nepal, we heard that Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded at U$ 700 pmt to CFR Birgunj in containers.

In India, no major demand arise for Australian red lentils. We heard Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1) traded to CFR Kolkata at U$ 675 in containers & as heard from market experts that desi lentils are been sold in premium price than imported lentils.

In Bangladesh, demand is flat for Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark #1). We heard trade offer at U$ 650-660 levels.

In India, no demand for Faba Beans. We heard FAB#1 traded in U$ 380 levels & less U$10 pmt FAB#2 to Kolkata’s local mkt.

In Pakistan, We heard trade offer at for CHKM to CFR Karachi at U$ 530 levels to final buyer.

In Bangladesh, we heard trader offer in local market for desi chickpeas at U$ 485 levels.

๐——๐—  ๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ & ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—บ ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—”๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ & ๐—ข๐—ถ๐—น๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐˜€

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Grains, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (27/07/2023)

Global wheat production 2023-24 declined by 1.9 MMT from last month to 784.2 MMT or 19 MMT less than last year 2022-23 as per IGC.

Russia attacked Ukraine’s grain terminals in the Danube port, which resulted in wheat futures up by 8.5%, though profit-taking capped the surges. Corn futures are also up by A$10-15 pmt.

The domestic Australian wheat market went up by A$20-A$50 pmt for old crops. But still Australian wheat is unable to compete against cheaper Russian grain in the destination market. In the SEA region, we heard that the Vietnamese buying Aussie wheat at mid-US$ 310 levels in bulk vessels.

Eygpt Govt assured to local public that it have sufficient wheat stock after Russia walked out from the grain deal on 18th July. Egypt started signing an agreement with India to import wheat & acute for other multiple wheat sources such from the US, Bulgaria, Romania, France & Germany as per UkrAgroConsult.

India has banned non-Basmati rice exports. As they predicted acute shortage is on the way due to crop damage by heavy rainfall. India accounted for more than 40% of rice exports across the globe.

In China, minimal trade demand for Australian sorghum against cheaper US sorghum. We heard trade offers for Australian Sorghum at U$ 340 levels last week & trade offers for US Sorghum at U$ 315-320 levels.

Global oilseed markets are unpredictable due to high tension in the Black Sea and dryness concerns in Canada, which resulted in Australia’s old crop canola prices going up by A$5 pmt & new crop trading at a premium price of A$20-40 pmt, this past week.

In Nepal, no price viability for Australian canola. As we heard trade offers for Ukrainian rapeseed at US$ 545-550 levels for CFR Birgunj.

In India, there is no major enquiry for Australian red lentils at the moment & the local port stock price is relatively flat. As we heard the trade offers for Nipper/Hallmark #1 at U$ 690 levels for Birgunj.

In China, minimal trade demand for Australian Kaspa peas against cheaper Russian yellow peas at US$ 330 levels. KASPA PEAS traded CFR Tianjin US$ 380 pmt in containers.

In Nepal, as we heard the trade offer for Australian CHK1 at US$ 580 levels for CFR Birgung & Biratnagar in containers.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offer CHKM at US$ 540 levels CFR Karachi to final buyers & PKR currency is firming up.

๐——๐—  ๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ & ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—บ ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—”๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ & ๐—ข๐—ถ๐—น๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐˜€

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Grain, Pulses & Oilseed Market Update (20/07/2023)

Black Sea corridor is officially expired Russia reject the renewal of the deal. The Ukrainian president is cooperating with the UN & Turkey to continue the deal. As per market experts, Russia’s call-off did not initially impact the global wheat market as much as it was anticipated, though with yesterdayโ€™s bombing of Ukrainian port infrastructure and some 50k wheat stock, there was an acute increase in the price of wheat & corn market. Russiaโ€™s intent seems to be clearly in the direction of punishing Ukraine and applying pressure on the west to give in to their demands.

Russia might abolish export duties for grains/oilseeds/ veg oils if shipped to so-called ‘Friendly nations’ So countries like Egypt could buy Russian wheat cheaper & India save $ on sun oil imports – wheat etc. to be used as a geopolitical weapon

Australian wheat price remains uncompetitive even after getting the best freight rates against cheaper Russian wheat in the SE Asia region.

In SE Asia, we heard that APW traded Sahathai for 304 levels & APH13 traded CFR Laem Chabang for 370 levels.

For Barley, Australian growers have to wait a little longer as China demands one more month to review the tariffs before final comment.

Australian feed barley export is up by 14% & malt barley is declined by 48% ; KSA, Japan & Vietnam biggest importers – of feed barley; Vietnam, Peru & Ecuador are the top importers in n the month of May per ABS

Export of Sorghum is up by 25%; China accounted for 98% of the total export in May as per ABS.

Locally, Kaspa Field Peas prices shoot up by A$ 20-30. We are observing strong trade demand coming from China. Recent trade offers reported for Kaspa Peas – CFR Tianjin at U$ 390 – U$ 395 levels

Global canola market is climbing so as Australian canola both old & new crop prices went is up by $40 pmt.

In Nepal, we heard a trade offer for Ukrainian rapeseed at U$ 560- U$ 565 levels. Markets have moved up by almost U$40 pmt in last 2 weeks. No export price parity for Australian GM Canola seed yet.

Australian red lentils demand remains flat at the moment in India. No significant enquiry.

In Pakistan, we heard trade offers for CHKM – CFR Karachi at U$ 545 – U$ 550 levels. The local market is up as PKR currency is firming up after the IMF loan and demand continues.

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Pulses & Canola Market Update (28/06/2023)

On a macro level crude oil under pressure as a result of global recessionary fears. Interest rates still in northward direction in higher for longer mode.

During India’s PM Modi’s recent trip to the United States, the two nations agreed, India will lift tariffs on eight US goods, including lentils and chickpeas, and the US will lift tariffs on India’s goods, steel and aluminum.

Tur shortage and limited scope of replenishment/import should continue to underpin lentil values in India. Uptick in demand during upcoming festive season may prove bullish on pulses in India. El Nino impact on Indian monsoon a threat still.

Expect a smaller desi chickpeas crop this year with 250,000 ha(ABARE) in QLD in good health, NNSW possibly tad lower than 170,000 ha (ABARE). Lentils planted in VIC (305,000 ha (ABARE) and SA (320,000 ha (ABARE)) are in good health and seems to be benefitting from recent rains.

Australia inflation rate has come in lower at 5.6 per cent in May from 6.8 per cent in April. RBA may pause its interest rate hikes.

Lower fertilizer prices this season thus lower cost of production and subject to production remaining above average, we may see pricing competitiveness in Australia new crop across the board.

Container freight ex Australia to Indian sub-continent now within the USD10-USD15 pmt premium to bulk making container flows more active. We expect to see more improvement in container freight in coming months.

Very thinly traded volumes & low demand from export destinations this week(as per market advisories received :-

CHK1 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 701 pmt

CHKM – CFR Karachi traded – U$ 525 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #1 – CFR Kolkata traded – U$ 670 pmt

Nipper/Hallmark #2 – CFR Birgunj traded – U$ 658 pmt

Middle East โ€“ no demand/trades reported

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (21/06/2023)ย 

Global wheat market, dry weather condition in US crop region uplifted the international prices. However global prices still driven by ample supply of cheap Russian wheat.ย 

Australian domestic wheat market has uplifted prices for old & new crop due to weather conditions, strong demand for feed SFW1 is coming from north.ย ย ย 

India approved export of wheat to Nepal & broken rice to Indonesia, Senegal & Gamiba.ย ย ย 

Barley, Australian growers awaits from China to resolve the trade dispute in next two weeks & domestic market of malting barley has been quit. Export of feed barley fall by 27% & malting barley fall by 12% m-o-m basis in April; biggest volume buyers for Australian feed barley are Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Kuwait & for malting barley are Mexico, Japan & Singapore in April.ย ย ย 

Global Canola market experiencing bullish factor due to dry weather condition impacted on soyabean & corn crop in their development phase as per USDA. In domestic market Australian canola prices went up by $20-$40 pmt across both old & new crop. Australian Canola export drop by 46.26 % m-o-m basis & Germany, Japan & UAE were biggest volume buyers in April. Still Australian exporters not able to find market parity for canola seeds against Ukrainian rapeseed.ย 

Sorghum, China & Japan are the biggest volume buyers; Overall export up by 73% on m-o-m basis in April.ย ย 

No major demands coming for Australian red lentils from India; Pakistan continues to be volume buyer of Australia’s desi chickpeas.ย ย 

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 3 of the 4 criteria for development of EI Nino have been met; this year, there are more chances of warm weather event will occur.ย 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (14/06/2023)

Indian govt. announced a 10.35% hike in MSP for lentils, millet & paddy to support growers.ย ย 

India, Sri lanka & UAE were the top 3 volume consumers of Australian lentils in April. Export of lentils boosted by to 173% y-o-y basis & fall by 6% in m-o-m basis.ย ย 

In recent time, Pakistan has emerged as a volume buyer for Australian desi chickpeas. Export of desi chickpeas fall by 62.46% in April m-o-m basis.ย ย 

Australian exporters were unable to negotiate parity price for canola seed in Nepal, where it already faces fierce competition from Ukrainian rapeseeds.ย 

Today, Australian dollar is 0.6786 which is up by 3 cents that is limiting trade this week.ย 

Again, India has set a stock limit on wheat that will remain in effect until March 31, 2024, to control prices. May eventuate import requirements later part of this year.ย 

In April, China and Malaysia were the biggest buyers of Australian wheat in the containers followed Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, & Indonesia. Containerised wheat export decline by 28% m-o-m basis as per ABS.ย 

In bulk in vessel wheat business, again China is biggest volume consumers followed by Thailand & Indonesia in April. Export of wheat in bulk fall by 19.32 % m-o-m basis as per ABSย 

Heavy rainfall in China’s Henan province during winter harvesting; impacting quality of new wheat crop 2023-24, earlier it was forecasted to 140 MMT as USDA report.ย 

Australian wheat continues to be more expensive on export parity basis to CIS origin. Domestic trade on wheat seems to now see very limited bids by domestic end users/exporters on back of recent rains in grain growing areas of SNSW/VIC/SA & Southern WA providing some optimism; demand in SE Asia for Australian wheat remains affected due to cheaper CIS grain availability.ย ย 

Slow harvest, low availability continues to push Sorghum pricing higher domestically; continued China export demand.ย 

Australian canola east coast port zones higher by about $15 to $30 this week on back of jump in European markets. However, pressure to remain on pricing given almost 2 mmt carryout expected.ย 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update (31/05/2023)ย ย ย 

In India, minimal trade movement for Australian Red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1), been advised last week traded for CFR Kolkata โ€“ USD 685 pmt levels in bulk in containers. Ongoing strength in Tur has not led to any significant uptick in import demand yet. With strict government directives on stock holding, traders are unwilling to resort to any large volume imports thus keeping business to continue to tick over at sideway pricing values. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata โ€“ USD 685pmt; CFR Nhava Seva โ€“ USD 680pmt; CFR Birganj (Nepal) – USD 725pmt 

Australian Chickpeas is more focused towards just Pakistan market, no demand seen any other destination. Traders attending GPC at Sydney got their share of excitement this week with mkt grapevine suggesting appx. 8-10k mt traded in containers of both 25% def (CFR Karachi โ€“ USD 505pmt) and 15% def (CFR Karachi โ€“ USD 520 pmt), though we are led to believe that this volume took out the local trader long stocks. Significant currency risk factor for Pak still keeps Australian seller risk appetite in check. Our indication for CFR Karachi โ€“ July/Aug – Bulk in container โ€“ CHK1 โ€“ USD 560; CHKM (15% def) โ€“ USD 525; CHKM (25% def) โ€“ USD 505; Nipper/Hallmark#1 โ€“ USD 695 pmt.       

Nepal, Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no forthcoming demand for pulses yet.  

Global markets on oilseed complex continue to slide. Australian Canola seed market in Nepal facing competition from Ukranian rapeseed due to aggressive price offers. Our Indication for GM Canola min 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers โ€“ CFRโ€ฏBirgunjโ€ฏโ€“โ€ฏUSD 620 pmt. We haven’t seen any firm queries in last 1 week. 

AUD/USD 0.65 at 6-month low which is supportive for Aussie exports, however falling demand against expected significant northern hemisphere crops and global macro fears keeping a lid on export volumes across grains and pulses. 

On new crop estimates, whilst planting hectares will be similar across all pulse’s crops, however expected yields are estimated lower by various agencies with PIRSA in SA expecting lentils to harvest about 1.73 mt/ha in 23/24 crop vs 2.75 mt/ha in 22/23 crop. (191,600 ha yielding 527,250 mt in 22/23 vs expected 201,400 ha yielding 348,800 mt). We expect this trend to be similar across all Australian states due to threat of El Nino which may threaten our crop prospects this spring.ย 

Global wheat market found support due to the resurgence of uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian export corridor & dry weather in US settling into corn and soybean-growing regions. Despite of unchanged dry weather condition still US struggling to compete with Russia who is holding large stocks of cheap wheat. In order regain importer’s attention, lack of demand is causing US wheat price dip below corn.   

Australian growers have been busy crop planting, we see slowdown in export interests. We anticipated firm demand of Wheat from Asia countries but facing competition from cheap Russian wheat. We don’t see any meaningful support for Australian wheat prices in the short term due to the sufficient global wheat supply, cheap and plentiful Russian wheat, and worse economic conditions. 

In Barely market, Australian growers clearly sees that Chinese demand and prospects for new crops are the two clear opportunities. We are keeping an eye on the Chinese tariff review, but it is still unclear whether or not there will be significant changes. New potential upside should new crop prospects suffer due to drier conditions. Due to the threat of El Nino the new crop bids aren’t yet at the point where they would create interest.  

In Sorghum, Australian grower anticipating that Chinese demand is still the dominant factor with the weaker Australian dollar supports prices. 

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Pulses, Canola & Grains Market Update ย (24/05/2023)

In India, Australian Red Lentils (Nipper/Hallmark#1) traded at USD 680 pmt levels for CFR Kolkata bulk in containers, sales are trying to be pushed but buyers are unwilling to increase bids. Heard USD 660 pmt levels traded for Nipper/Hallmark#1 CFR Nhava Sheva however with freight differential usually limited to between USD 5-6 pmt between Kolkata and Nhava Sheva, we do not believe there to be many sellers selling steep discounted values into Nhava Sheva. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark #1 – July/Aug – Bulk in Containers – CFR Kolkata – USD 692 pmt. 

 In Pakistan, the demand for Australian pulses is waning after a few weeks of aggressive buying. Politico-economic/currency risks keeping most regular Australian sellers restricted for container business for Pak. Small amounts of CHKM containers continue at USD 540 CFR Karachi levels. Our Indications for CFR Karachi โ€“ CHK1 โ€“ USD 570 pmt; CHKM โ€“ USD 540 pmt; KCP 7/8 โ€“ USD 970 pmt; Nipper/Hallmark #1 โ€“ USD 695 pmt  

Bangladesh and UAE markets are still relatively quiet, and there is no imminent demand for pulses. In Bangladesh, last week heard trade offers for GM Canola min. 44% bulk in containers around USD 645 levels.  

The Nepal pulse market has slowed down for a while. Our Indication for Nipper/Hallmark#1 โ€“ Bulk in Containers โ€“ CFR Birgunj โ€“ USD 725 pmt; CHK1 โ€“ USD 600 pmt.  

 Canola seed continues to be quiet for Nepal buyers mainly due to aggressive offers on Ukraine rapeseed where new crop harvest is just 1 month away, hence urgency on emptying storages. Our price indication for GM Canola min. 44% oil – July/Aug – Bulk in containers – CFR Birgunj – USD 640 pmt. 

Container freight ex Australia continues to correct month on month as carriers struggle with filling their vessels with cargo. However, we have noticed major carrier’s reluctance to significantly reduce freight rates to the Indian sub-continent majorly due to  

a) Equipment availability issues in Australia due to low import volumes and  

b) Limited own vessel carriers into ISC reducing competition. 

The announcement of a 60-days extension to the Black Sea grain corridor agreement led to pressurization in global wheat prices & corn followed it for the same reasons. Adding further US corn price in pressure due to the cancellation of 272,000 mt of 22/23 corn to China.  

However, Australian growers had couple of good, seasons & so they are not in urgency to sell what theyโ€™re holding, particularly with the chances of an El Nino event increasing price in old & new crop.  

Barley prices have fallen along with wheat & corn, but Australian growers are still hoping for support may come later in the year on the back of Chinaโ€™s tariff review. New crop production is looking shaky because of drier conditions caused by a developing El Nino & hoping to get price support in upcoming months.   

Drier than normal conditions are expected to continue until late May. The dry weather continues to hinder planting progress, with planting rates across Eastern Australia spread between 50-70%. VIC is now 70%+ complete, whilst NSW and SA are lower, around 50%. Grower feedback has been that almost everyone is looking for at least 5-10mm to get crops started.   

Sorghum is currently in low demand in China; trade is offering it for USD 340 levels CFR Tianjin for bulk in containers, but there are no bids.  

No major demand from SEA wheat millers; they have enough wheat on hand to last until July 23. Australian wheat in containers quoted for July/Aug shipments period – ASW-USD 322 pmt ; APW- USD 327 pmt.  

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