venedor0 commentsOctober 11, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (11/10/2024)

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel and subsequent oil price spike has also spiked global oilseed market prices on account of bio-fuel inclusions. Locally in Australia, this has led to a significant increase in canola prices.

Dry weather condition in both Australia & the Black Sea region where it is impacting planting of crops has driven up global wheat values and in turn new crop Australian wheat prices on the east coast & WA. Domestic market bids are up by A$8-10/MT in the last 1 week, with no significant grower selling yet. In SEA region, heard that ASW9 trading at U$280/MT levels+/-U$3/MT – (J/F) & AH1 trading at high U$320/MT – (N/D) to CFR SEA major ports in containers. Next 2 weeks rain is predicted in Southern NSW & Victoria which may provide a relief and boost to crop volume.

Exports of Australian red sorghum down by 27% in Aug,24 compared to Jul24, major buyers are China, Japan & Taiwan as per ABS. Demand for Australian red sorghum in China is sluggish, with offers high at U$295/MT to CFR Tianjin (O/N) in containers & no firm interest. Chinese buyers are seeking the new crop of Kaspa peas, targeting U$440/MT, while offers quoted U$460/MT to CFR Tianjin. Local sources indicate that the peas market remains stable to flat, but there’s no significant buying demand from the downstream market.

Exports of Australian feed barley up by 8% & malt barley fell by 1% in Aug,24 compared to Jul,24; feed barley main importer is Japan, Peru, China & malt barley main buyers is China, Mexico, Vietnam as per ABS. Hearing no indicative trade offers from Australia barley this week & Russian barley offered at U$225/MT to CFR China major ports.

In Pakistan, demand for Australian desi chickpeas is strong for prompt shipments but low for Dec/Jan. Reports indicate vessel business at U$850/MT to CFR Karachi (O), while there have been no containerized trades this week. Hearing trade offers for Australian desi chickpeas range from U$810-840/MT for Nov in containers. Pakistani buyers continue to buy Tanzanian desi chickpeas at U$850/MT for prompt shipments. Demand for Australian red lentils are currently sluggish, with price quoted U$760-770/MT to CFR Karachi (N/D) in containers.

In India, the demand for Australian desi chickpeas has been declining for the past two weeks due to subdued buying interest. Indian domestic traders are anticipating that the price of desi chickpeas may firm up due to strong demand during festive season in upcoming days. Hearing trade offers at CHK1(24/25) – CFR NS/Mundra โ€“ U$830/MT levels (O/N) to CFR NS/Mundra in containers. No movement in Australian red lentils at the moment as demand is sluggish, with hearing offers NIP1/HAL1 at U$750-60/MT to CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers. This week, some business reported on Faba beans at U$430/MT to CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers.

Bangladeshi buyers are actively participating for desi chickpeas to cover next yearโ€™s Ramadhan demand, as hearing business reported at U$850/MT levels to CFR Chittagong (O/N) & hearing trade offers at U$840/MT levels (N) & U$820/MT levels (D) to CFR Chittagong in containers.

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venedor0 commentsOctober 4, 2024Weekly Market Update

๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ & ๐—ข๐—ถ๐—น๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ (๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฐ/๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ/๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฐ)

According to PIRSA assessment – South Australia’s winter crop 24/25 report indicates a 35% declined in production to 5.9MT, which is 35% below the five-year average & report forecasts a reduction in the harvest area for wheat, barley, lentils, vetch, & canola, attributing this decline to insufficient rainfall and the effects of frost. The following winter crop estimated Wheat – 3.1MT; Barley – 1.5MT; Lentils โ€“ 427KT; Canola โ€“ 348KT; Beans โ€“ 128KT; Oats – 103KT; Lupins – 48KT; Peas – 46KT; Vetch – 18KT; Chickpeas 13KT.

Australian wheat prices have firmed up in local due to frost conditions in South Australia & the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. In SEA region, this week hearing ASW (24/25) begin quoted at high U$285/MT to CFR SEA major ports in containers.

China market is closed this week due to the ongoing national holiday. Limited business has been reported for Australian red sorghum at U$295/MT to CFR Qingdao (O/N) in containers. There are enquiries for Kaspa peas with offers at U$470-475/MT to CFR Tianjin, but buying bids are at U$425/MT, which is not viable due to the high origination price. Offers for Canadian YP are at U$420/MT and Russian YP at U$410/MT to CFR China major ports, with buying levels at U$360/MT.

Exports of chickpeas increased by 35% in Aug,24 compared to Jul,24 – main importers are India, Pakistan & Nepal as per ABS.

Pakistan market for Australian desi chickpeas is slow due limited buyer interest. Hearing trade offers for CHK1(24/25) at U$900/MT (O) ; at U$860/MT (O/N); at U$810/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers. While the local market is witnessing an upward trend in desi prices due to shortage, reaching as high as U$1005/MT. Low demand for Australian red lentils, with offers at U$765-70/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers.

Exports of lentils declined by 43% in Aug,24 compared to Jul,24 – major buyers are India, SL & Pakistan as per ABS.

Indian buyers show limited interest in Australian desi chickpeas, with offers for CHK1(24/25) – U$840-45/MT (O/N); at U$800-05/MT(N/D); at U$790-95/MT (D/J) to CFR Mundra/NS in containers. Meanwhile, in local market of desi stands at INR 79.25 per kg. Interest for Australian red lentils are low from buyers, with offers at U$740-50/MT (N/D) to CFR Kolkata in containers.

Bangladeshi buyers showing low buying interest for Australian desi chickpeas, with offers at U$810-15/MT – (N/D) to CFR Chittagong in containers & local market of desi stands at U$925/MT. There are few enquiries for Kaspa peas as well.

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds

Kind Regards

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venedorJuly 7, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/07/2023)ย 

In Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark) we are observing thin trade demand coming from India.  Recent trade reported of Nipper – CFR Birgunj (Nepal) at 685 levels in containers.  

Sight of relief to Pakistan, IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR 2,250 million (about $3 billion or 111 percent of Pakistanโ€™s IMF quota). Heard offers for CHKM at 510-15 levels CFR Karachi in containers, though low demand in local Pakistan market and Karachi port arrivals of peas picking up.     

Reserve Bank of Australia hold interest rate 4.1% in June to tackle inflation in country. AUD/USD rangebound 0.66c to 0.67c. 

As per FAS USDA forecasted, Australia wheat production 29 Mt in 2023/24 (-10.7 Mt compared to last year). Export will drop to 21 Mt than last year 31 Mt. Barley production forecasted to 10 Mt in 2023/24 compared to last year 14 Mt & exports will up by 5.5 Mt due to China’s tariff review & uncertainly of Ukraine exports. 

Despite of upheaval with Ukraine, Russia recorded 45 MMT export of wheat or 51% higher than last season 2022-23. Presently, Russia wheat is ruling the market with cheap pricing across the destinations.   

Australian wheat followed somewhat the sharp falls seen on US wheat futures because of positive crop conditions. New crop APW multi bids down $20 -$30 pmt ; old crop $10 -$20 pmt   various port zones, but with little selling interest from growers, market remains illiquid. 

In Russian & EU harvesting of wheat is begun, with other grains & oilseed begin to harvest in next months. The major challenge for EU wheat exporters is the dominance of cheaper Russia wheat in the market. Might they have to target Morocco & China for larger export sales. 

Black Sea vs Australian barley spread to Middle East markets at U$50 pmt currently and thus remains uncompetitive while Australia still waits for China barley markets to open. 

Lack of export demand on barley with new crop bids $10-30 pmt down and old crop seeing $10-$15 drop in bids. 

Sorghum markets continued to be subdued with harvest largely completed in SE QLD and NNSW and partial remaining in CQ. Reportedly traded in containers to Qingdao at USD 322 pmt with thin interest.ย 

As per EU commission, EU rapeseed production forecast of 600Kt to 19MMT proved to be bullish factor for Australian canola seeds  

Production cuts to US soybean and EU rapeseed caused a brief run on the bourses but given a heavy northern hemisphere supply side on oilseed and bearish demand, little upside potential. Ukraine rapeseed reported trade into ISC at USD 500 pmt levels in containersย 

As per USDA WASDE, Global rapeseed production remains unchanged this month at 87 Mt. Overall consumption forecasted 85 Mt, with marginal rise of 2%(y-o-y) for EU to 25.4 Mt. Overall export dip by 2% this month to 17.7 Mt due to fall in Australian exports. With decline in production, Ukraine & Australia exports are expected to drop by 15% & 38% respectively. 

As per BOM withholding officially declaring EL Nino yet saying โ€œsustained changes in wind, cloud and broadscale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observedโ€. 

โ€œThis means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Nino events.โ€ The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October,โ€ 

DM us for price indication & firm offers for Australian Pulses, Grains & Oilseedsย 

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