venedor0 commentsNovember 15, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (15/11/2024)

Australian wheat new crop prices are firmed up in local market since last week. In SEA region, there was very limited trade activity reported for pocket size February demand of APW1 traded at U$272/MT in containers this week, since SEA millers had already secured their demands up to January – showing limited interest in buying for future contracts.

Chinese buyers showing strong interest in the new crop of Australian red sorghum, with bids at U$275/MT for CFR China (M/A) in containers, while the old crop is attracting minimal interest. This week, demand for Kaspa peas is limited, with business reported at U$430/MT for CFR Qingdao (J/F) in containers. Australian barley new crop trading at U$250/MT to CFR China in containers (D/J) this week. Source indicating that spot market of green mung beans prices is firming up since last two weeks, & buyers bidding for GMB manufacturing grade (old crop) at U$825/MT to Australian sellers.

Faba beans in local market prices are shoot up in the past 10 days due to vessel accumulators paying high values to growers. In Egypt, hearing container offers are quoted for Faba beans (Warda type) at high U$530/MT to CFR Damietta.

Australian desi chickpeas demand is stable to slow this week in India, influenced by the sluggish desi domestic market which is stands at INR70. Offers are being quoted at U$705/MT (N/D); at U$680/MT (D/J) to CNF India in containers, & in bulk at U$685/MT (D); at U$665-70/MT (J), as buyers are placing low bids. Additionally, there is minimal trading activity in Australian red lentils, with indicative offers to CFR Kolkata in containers at U$720-25/MT (J/F) with no buyer’s bids.

In Pakistan, desi chickpeas demand slow & minimal trade movement, with prompt cargoes trading at U$725/MT levels to CFR Karachi (N); offers quoted at U$680-85/MT (D/J) in containers. Nothing much happening in Australian red lentils, with offers are high U$720/MT to CFR Karachi.

Bangladesh is experiencing demand for Australia desi chickpeas, with trade offers of U$700/MT to CFR Chittagong in containers for full Dec shipment.

Nepal buyers steady buying Australian desi chickpeas to CFR Biratnagar at U$725/MT (D) in containers

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venedor0 commentsNovember 8, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (08/11/2024)

Global wheat market experienced minimal price fluctuations before the US election, with Australian wheat market prices & AUD dollar firming last week. Demand for ASW & APW till January was covered by SEA millers, who are currently keeping an eye on the market. This week business reported for APW1 at U$274/MT & ASW at U$270/MT in containers.

In China, there is a low demand for old crop of Australian red sorghum, with the last business reported at U$285/MT, & quotes for the new crop at U$280/MT (M/A) for CFR Tianjin in containers. The demand for Kaspa peas remains sluggish, with offers quoted at U$435/MT (J/F) to CFR Tianjin. Sources indicate that the GMB spot market is strengthening, with prices reaching U$1015/MT. Australian barley new crop offers at U$255/MT levels to CFR Tianjin (N/D) in containers.

Faba beans prices are skyrocketing in the local market as bulk vessel accumulators aggressively pursue it. In Egypt, buyers are actively looking for Faba beans (Warda & Fiesta type), indicative offers art U$605/MT to CFR Damietta for Faba (Fiesta type) in containers.

India’s demand for Australian desi chickpeas continues to be stable, with this week container trades are reported CHK1 at U$710/MT to CNF India(N/D) & for bulk trades reported U$705/MT levels (O/N) & for Dec offers quoted at U$680/MT levels to CFR Mundra. Sluggish demand for Australian red lentils, with offers NIP1/HAL1 at U$700/MT to CFR Kolkata in containers.

Australian Desi chickpeas are currently in low demand in Pakistan; container offers are quoted at CHK1 for U$725/MT CFR Karachi (N/D) with limited buying interest. Australian red lentils are likewise in low demand; quotes for containers for NIP1/HAL1 at U$730/MT to CFR Karachi (N/D).

Bangladeshi buyers are expressing interest for Dec sailing cargoes of Australian desi chickpeas, heard business reported at U$685/MT for bulk & for containers at U$705/MT levels to CFR Chittagong (D). Sources indicate that local market desi at U$885/MT levels.

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venedor0 commentsOctober 25, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (25/10/2024)

Australian red sorghum demand is down, as no offers are quoted for current crop & hearing that buyers are showing some interest in sorghum new crop, as heard limited business reported at below U$280/MT levels to CFR Tianjin (M/A) in containers. Limited demand for Kaspa peas new crop, with price offers at U$455/MT to CFR Tianjin. Australian barley new crop offers at high U$260/MT, as buyers target prices at U$250/MT levels & Russian barley price offers at U$200/MT levels to CFR Tianjin containers.

SEA millers are currently observing market levels without showing interest in buying, as APW is quoted at the low U$285/MT – (J) & ASW at low U$280/MT – (J) CFR SEA major ports in containers.

As the Diwali festival approaches in India, this week’s business reports indicate that Australian desi chickpeas are trading at U$700/MT (N/D) for CFR NS/Mundra in containers, with bulk offers quoted at U$680/MT (N/D) for CFR NS/Mundra. Meanwhile, this week’s domestic prices for desi chickpeas in India have remained stable to slightly lower, standing at INR 72.75. This week Australian red lentils have seen limited trades at U$695-700/MT for CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers.

Pakistan’s demand for Australian desi chickpeas is stable to low, with trades reported at U$710/MT (N) & U$700/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi & no offers hearing on bulk for desi this week; local market of desi price is strong at U$865/MT levels. Nothing much happening in the Australian lentils as demand is low at the moment, with price offers at U$740/MT to CFR Karachi in containers & local market at U$675/MT.

Bangladesh’s demand for Australian desi chickpeas is stable, with price offers at U$710/MT levels (N/D) with no buying interest. This week local market is desi chickpeas at U$900/MT.

In Egypt, firm demand for Faba beans warda type at U$485/MT (N/D) to CFR Damietta in containers.

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venedor0 commentsOctober 18, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (18/10/2024)

AS per GIWA, WA is expected to produce 17.75MT of winter crop from the ongoing harvest as Wheat 9.91MT, Barley 4.32MT, Canola 2.35MT, Oats 590KT, Lupins 505KT & other Pulses 73KT.

The weather forecast indicates rainfall of 15-25mm for NNSW, 15-50mm for central and SNSW, 10-50mm for Victoria, 5-25mm for South Australia, 5-15mm for northern WA, & 10-25mm for southeastern WA. Crops may benefit from this rain and replenish grain pod fill and volume but this may be last event required prior harvest. Weather still not warming up to allow crops to mature quickly for harvest. Any more rain from end October onwards will be detrimental to crop quality.

In NSW cereal crops hit by frosts earlier will have recovered but Victoria received another 2 frost events in Oct which have further dented crops in some areas. Harvest in Victoria should start in early November when we know the full extent of crop losses. Forward sales have been limited in Vic hence trade are waiting to see crop yields on harvest to decide pricing moves. South Australia has continued to be worse than other states for this season, yields will be know by mid- November.

Locally Australian wheat prices are strengthening, yet there is weak demand from the destination markets. In the SEA region, new crop of APW is reportedly quoted below U$287/MT & ASW at low U$280/MT to CFR major SEA ports in containers.

Post-national holiday, the demand for Australian red sorghum in China has waned, with container price offers standing at U$295/MT CFR Tianjin (O/N) with no firm buying interest. We have limited availability now ex Australia with growers and trade now busy with winter crop harvest. Meanwhile, USA sorghum is reportedly trading at U$270/MT this week. Additionally, Canadian & Russian YP are quoted at U$430/MT and U$410/MT to CFR China. Buyers are opting to wait for the new harvest of Kaspa peas, as their bids are not aligning with the quoted price of U$460/MT CFR Tianjin (D/J) in containers. Canadian barley offers are firming up at U$260-65/MT to CFR China with lack of buying interest, & there have been no indicative offers from Australian or Russian barley.

Anticipated large chickpeas harvest is Australia is imposing significant price pressure in Indian sub-continent markets with spot buyer bids declining day by day with origin prices and bids declining by A$50 pmt in last 2 weeks.

In India, there has been a weak demand for Australian desi chickpeas over past three weeks, with very limited trading activity reported. Vessel trades for CHK1(24/25) are at U$770/MT to CFR Mundra (N/D). Container offers are quoted at U$820/MT (O/N), U$790-95/MT (N/D), & U$770/MT (D/J) to CFR Mundra/NS, with no buyer interest. The domestic market for desi remains weak, with price stands at INR 75. Australian red lentils are also experiencing sluggish demand, with offers at U$745-50/MT to CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers, again with no buyers. Currently, there is no price parity in Faba beans, with limited offers at U$435-40/MT (N/D/J) to CFR Kolkata in containers.

In Pakistan, there is a strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas with buyers seeking for early shipments only, with price offers at U$830/MT (O/FH Nov); at U$780-85/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers. Australian red lentils demand is sluggish, with offers quoted at U$765-70/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladeshi buyers are showing interest for Australian desi chickpeas, with price offers at U$840-45/MT (N); U$785-90/MT (N/D) to CFR Chittagong in containers.

In Nepal, hearing some business reported of Australian desi chickpeas – CHK1(24/25) at U$820/MT levels to (N/D) to CFR Birgunj & Canola at U$695/MT to CFR Biratngar in containers.

In Egypt, buyers are gearing up for the new crop coverage of faba beans, hearing that faba beans are trading at U$470/MT (N/D)Warda type // U$505/MT (N/D)Fiesta type to CFR Damietta, in containers. A line up of expected bulk vessel programs ex Australia are keeping pre-harvest pricing higher and uncompetitive for container business. Longer transit of 80-90 days on containers also limiting trade on container business.

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venedor0 commentsOctober 11, 2024Weekly Market Update

Grains, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (11/10/2024)

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel and subsequent oil price spike has also spiked global oilseed market prices on account of bio-fuel inclusions. Locally in Australia, this has led to a significant increase in canola prices.

Dry weather condition in both Australia & the Black Sea region where it is impacting planting of crops has driven up global wheat values and in turn new crop Australian wheat prices on the east coast & WA. Domestic market bids are up by A$8-10/MT in the last 1 week, with no significant grower selling yet. In SEA region, heard that ASW9 trading at U$280/MT levels+/-U$3/MT – (J/F) & AH1 trading at high U$320/MT – (N/D) to CFR SEA major ports in containers. Next 2 weeks rain is predicted in Southern NSW & Victoria which may provide a relief and boost to crop volume.

Exports of Australian red sorghum down by 27% in Aug,24 compared to Jul24, major buyers are China, Japan & Taiwan as per ABS. Demand for Australian red sorghum in China is sluggish, with offers high at U$295/MT to CFR Tianjin (O/N) in containers & no firm interest. Chinese buyers are seeking the new crop of Kaspa peas, targeting U$440/MT, while offers quoted U$460/MT to CFR Tianjin. Local sources indicate that the peas market remains stable to flat, but there’s no significant buying demand from the downstream market.

Exports of Australian feed barley up by 8% & malt barley fell by 1% in Aug,24 compared to Jul,24; feed barley main importer is Japan, Peru, China & malt barley main buyers is China, Mexico, Vietnam as per ABS. Hearing no indicative trade offers from Australia barley this week & Russian barley offered at U$225/MT to CFR China major ports.

In Pakistan, demand for Australian desi chickpeas is strong for prompt shipments but low for Dec/Jan. Reports indicate vessel business at U$850/MT to CFR Karachi (O), while there have been no containerized trades this week. Hearing trade offers for Australian desi chickpeas range from U$810-840/MT for Nov in containers. Pakistani buyers continue to buy Tanzanian desi chickpeas at U$850/MT for prompt shipments. Demand for Australian red lentils are currently sluggish, with price quoted U$760-770/MT to CFR Karachi (N/D) in containers.

In India, the demand for Australian desi chickpeas has been declining for the past two weeks due to subdued buying interest. Indian domestic traders are anticipating that the price of desi chickpeas may firm up due to strong demand during festive season in upcoming days. Hearing trade offers at CHK1(24/25) – CFR NS/Mundra – U$830/MT levels (O/N) to CFR NS/Mundra in containers. No movement in Australian red lentils at the moment as demand is sluggish, with hearing offers NIP1/HAL1 at U$750-60/MT to CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers. This week, some business reported on Faba beans at U$430/MT to CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers.

Bangladeshi buyers are actively participating for desi chickpeas to cover next year’s Ramadhan demand, as hearing business reported at U$850/MT levels to CFR Chittagong (O/N) & hearing trade offers at U$840/MT levels (N) & U$820/MT levels (D) to CFR Chittagong in containers.

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venedor0 commentsOctober 4, 2024Weekly Market Update

𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀, 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲𝘀 & 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 (𝟬𝟰/𝟭𝟬/𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰)

According to PIRSA assessment – South Australia’s winter crop 24/25 report indicates a 35% declined in production to 5.9MT, which is 35% below the five-year average & report forecasts a reduction in the harvest area for wheat, barley, lentils, vetch, & canola, attributing this decline to insufficient rainfall and the effects of frost. The following winter crop estimated Wheat – 3.1MT; Barley – 1.5MT; Lentils – 427KT; Canola – 348KT; Beans – 128KT; Oats – 103KT; Lupins – 48KT; Peas – 46KT; Vetch – 18KT; Chickpeas 13KT.

Australian wheat prices have firmed up in local due to frost conditions in South Australia & the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. In SEA region, this week hearing ASW (24/25) begin quoted at high U$285/MT to CFR SEA major ports in containers.

China market is closed this week due to the ongoing national holiday. Limited business has been reported for Australian red sorghum at U$295/MT to CFR Qingdao (O/N) in containers. There are enquiries for Kaspa peas with offers at U$470-475/MT to CFR Tianjin, but buying bids are at U$425/MT, which is not viable due to the high origination price. Offers for Canadian YP are at U$420/MT and Russian YP at U$410/MT to CFR China major ports, with buying levels at U$360/MT.

Exports of chickpeas increased by 35% in Aug,24 compared to Jul,24 – main importers are India, Pakistan & Nepal as per ABS.

Pakistan market for Australian desi chickpeas is slow due limited buyer interest. Hearing trade offers for CHK1(24/25) at U$900/MT (O) ; at U$860/MT (O/N); at U$810/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers. While the local market is witnessing an upward trend in desi prices due to shortage, reaching as high as U$1005/MT. Low demand for Australian red lentils, with offers at U$765-70/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers.

Exports of lentils declined by 43% in Aug,24 compared to Jul,24 – major buyers are India, SL & Pakistan as per ABS.

Indian buyers show limited interest in Australian desi chickpeas, with offers for CHK1(24/25) – U$840-45/MT (O/N); at U$800-05/MT(N/D); at U$790-95/MT (D/J) to CFR Mundra/NS in containers. Meanwhile, in local market of desi stands at INR 79.25 per kg. Interest for Australian red lentils are low from buyers, with offers at U$740-50/MT (N/D) to CFR Kolkata in containers.

Bangladeshi buyers showing low buying interest for Australian desi chickpeas, with offers at U$810-15/MT – (N/D) to CFR Chittagong in containers & local market of desi stands at U$925/MT. There are few enquiries for Kaspa peas as well.

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venedorJuly 7, 2023Weekly Market Update

Grain, Pulses & Oilseeds Market Update (05/07/2023) 

In Australian red lentils (Nipper/Hallmark) we are observing thin trade demand coming from India.  Recent trade reported of Nipper – CFR Birgunj (Nepal) at 685 levels in containers.  

Sight of relief to Pakistan, IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement with the Pakistani authorities on a nine-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the amount of SDR 2,250 million (about $3 billion or 111 percent of Pakistan’s IMF quota). Heard offers for CHKM at 510-15 levels CFR Karachi in containers, though low demand in local Pakistan market and Karachi port arrivals of peas picking up.     

Reserve Bank of Australia hold interest rate 4.1% in June to tackle inflation in country. AUD/USD rangebound 0.66c to 0.67c. 

As per FAS USDA forecasted, Australia wheat production 29 Mt in 2023/24 (-10.7 Mt compared to last year). Export will drop to 21 Mt than last year 31 Mt. Barley production forecasted to 10 Mt in 2023/24 compared to last year 14 Mt & exports will up by 5.5 Mt due to China’s tariff review & uncertainly of Ukraine exports. 

Despite of upheaval with Ukraine, Russia recorded 45 MMT export of wheat or 51% higher than last season 2022-23. Presently, Russia wheat is ruling the market with cheap pricing across the destinations.   

Australian wheat followed somewhat the sharp falls seen on US wheat futures because of positive crop conditions. New crop APW multi bids down $20 -$30 pmt ; old crop $10 -$20 pmt   various port zones, but with little selling interest from growers, market remains illiquid. 

In Russian & EU harvesting of wheat is begun, with other grains & oilseed begin to harvest in next months. The major challenge for EU wheat exporters is the dominance of cheaper Russia wheat in the market. Might they have to target Morocco & China for larger export sales. 

Black Sea vs Australian barley spread to Middle East markets at U$50 pmt currently and thus remains uncompetitive while Australia still waits for China barley markets to open. 

Lack of export demand on barley with new crop bids $10-30 pmt down and old crop seeing $10-$15 drop in bids. 

Sorghum markets continued to be subdued with harvest largely completed in SE QLD and NNSW and partial remaining in CQ. Reportedly traded in containers to Qingdao at USD 322 pmt with thin interest. 

As per EU commission, EU rapeseed production forecast of 600Kt to 19MMT proved to be bullish factor for Australian canola seeds  

Production cuts to US soybean and EU rapeseed caused a brief run on the bourses but given a heavy northern hemisphere supply side on oilseed and bearish demand, little upside potential. Ukraine rapeseed reported trade into ISC at USD 500 pmt levels in containers 

As per USDA WASDE, Global rapeseed production remains unchanged this month at 87 Mt. Overall consumption forecasted 85 Mt, with marginal rise of 2%(y-o-y) for EU to 25.4 Mt. Overall export dip by 2% this month to 17.7 Mt due to fall in Australian exports. With decline in production, Ukraine & Australia exports are expected to drop by 15% & 38% respectively. 

As per BOM withholding officially declaring EL Nino yet saying “sustained changes in wind, cloud and broadscale pressure patterns towards El Nino-like patterns have not yet been observed”. 

“This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Nino events.” The current status of the ENSO Outlook does not change the long-range forecast of warmer and drier conditions across much of Australia for August to October,” 

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