AS per GIWA, WA is expected to produce 17.75MT of winter crop from the ongoing harvest as Wheat 9.91MT, Barley 4.32MT, Canola 2.35MT, Oats 590KT, Lupins 505KT & other Pulses 73KT.

The weather forecast indicates rainfall of 15-25mm for NNSW, 15-50mm for central and SNSW, 10-50mm for Victoria, 5-25mm for South Australia, 5-15mm for northern WA, & 10-25mm for southeastern WA. Crops may benefit from this rain and replenish grain pod fill and volume but this may be last event required prior harvest. Weather still not warming up to allow crops to mature quickly for harvest. Any more rain from end October onwards will be detrimental to crop quality.

In NSW cereal crops hit by frosts earlier will have recovered but Victoria received another 2 frost events in Oct which have further dented crops in some areas. Harvest in Victoria should start in early November when we know the full extent of crop losses. Forward sales have been limited in Vic hence trade are waiting to see crop yields on harvest to decide pricing moves. South Australia has continued to be worse than other states for this season, yields will be know by mid- November.

Locally Australian wheat prices are strengthening, yet there is weak demand from the destination markets. In the SEA region, new crop of APW is reportedly quoted below U$287/MT & ASW at low U$280/MT to CFR major SEA ports in containers.

Post-national holiday, the demand for Australian red sorghum in China has waned, with container price offers standing at U$295/MT CFR Tianjin (O/N) with no firm buying interest. We have limited availability now ex Australia with growers and trade now busy with winter crop harvest. Meanwhile, USA sorghum is reportedly trading at U$270/MT this week. Additionally, Canadian & Russian YP are quoted at U$430/MT and U$410/MT to CFR China. Buyers are opting to wait for the new harvest of Kaspa peas, as their bids are not aligning with the quoted price of U$460/MT CFR Tianjin (D/J) in containers. Canadian barley offers are firming up at U$260-65/MT to CFR China with lack of buying interest, & there have been no indicative offers from Australian or Russian barley.

Anticipated large chickpeas harvest is Australia is imposing significant price pressure in Indian sub-continent markets with spot buyer bids declining day by day with origin prices and bids declining by A$50 pmt in last 2 weeks.

In India, there has been a weak demand for Australian desi chickpeas over past three weeks, with very limited trading activity reported. Vessel trades for CHK1(24/25) are at U$770/MT to CFR Mundra (N/D). Container offers are quoted at U$820/MT (O/N), U$790-95/MT (N/D), & U$770/MT (D/J) to CFR Mundra/NS, with no buyer interest. The domestic market for desi remains weak, with price stands at INR 75. Australian red lentils are also experiencing sluggish demand, with offers at U$745-50/MT to CFR Kolkata (N/D) in containers, again with no buyers. Currently, there is no price parity in Faba beans, with limited offers at U$435-40/MT (N/D/J) to CFR Kolkata in containers.

In Pakistan, there is a strong demand for Australian desi chickpeas with buyers seeking for early shipments only, with price offers at U$830/MT (O/FH Nov); at U$780-85/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers. Australian red lentils demand is sluggish, with offers quoted at U$765-70/MT (N/D) to CFR Karachi in containers.

In Bangladeshi buyers are showing interest for Australian desi chickpeas, with price offers at U$840-45/MT (N); U$785-90/MT (N/D) to CFR Chittagong in containers.

In Nepal, hearing some business reported of Australian desi chickpeas – CHK1(24/25) at U$820/MT levels to (N/D) to CFR Birgunj & Canola at U$695/MT to CFR Biratngar in containers.

In Egypt, buyers are gearing up for the new crop coverage of faba beans, hearing that faba beans are trading at U$470/MT (N/D)Warda type // U$505/MT (N/D)Fiesta type to CFR Damietta, in containers. A line up of expected bulk vessel programs ex Australia are keeping pre-harvest pricing higher and uncompetitive for container business. Longer transit of 80-90 days on containers also limiting trade on container business.

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